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My other thoughts are:
-I think we will see a ton of new buyers looking to get out from the city. This would really affect me as I am buying on the lower end, which might not exist later this year.
-I believe that this whole pandemic has shown us that we need more hospital beds and hospitals. I expect we'll see some development in eastern Suffolk where there is space for it. This will bring new jobs first for construction, then for staffing.
I think most moving out from NYC will want to buy in Nassau due to the commute, but a lot will depend on employers allowing teleworking/remote working.
If they do then I can see the potential for people considering further out in Suffolk. But it will take a major mindset change for NYC residents to consider “the sticks”.
Wait, what? I am in NYC and the Asian population in the schools is the fastest growing demographic. I seriously doubt that Asians are leaving NYC because of recent politics around Stuy/Bronx Science. And nothing has changed in those schools' admission requirements.
There has been a growth of Asian population on the North Shore in recent years, but that has nothing to do with DeBlasio. The North Shore is actually cheaper than much of NE Queens these days, and Asian families are making good money, so moving further out from Flushing, Bayside and the like. Great Neck South and the like have been majority Asian since the Bloomberg years.
I'm an asian that sold my condo in DUMBO and moved to LI in 2015 shortly after Deblasio got elected. Thanks for letting me know how asians think.
Agree, although it was happening before that. The exodus teams have officially gone from ital-jew-irish to asian-indian-hispanic-slav. The faces change, but the (white) flight path remains the same. lol
Right, the path remains the same. But the motivation is a bit different. Again, the North Shore is cheaper than staying in the City. In the 1960's, 1970's, and 1980's, someone moving from NYC to (say) Jericho or East Hills was generally "moving up". Nowadays it's mostly because they can't afford something good in the city.
A decent 2-bedroom in Park Slope is probably at least $1.2 million. Manhattan is obviously more. At that price you can buy a lot of house on LI. And it's a house, not a dinky 2-bedroom. You can't get a true family-sized residence in a good neighborhood in the City for less than $2 million. At that range you're entering top-tier LI neighborhoods.
I'm an asian that sold my condo in DUMBO and moved to LI in 2015 shortly after Deblasio got elected. Thanks for letting me know how asians think.
Uh, my family is Asian too, not that it matters.
And we actually have demographic data on NYC schools which shows that the Asian population is the fastest growing, and much larger than the North Shore LI. Whether or not you moved from Dumbo to LI has nothing to do with anything.
Are you seriously claiming you moved to LI only because DeBlasio got elected? Sounds bizarre. DeBlasio will leave in a year, so then you're gonna move back? What happens if a mayor you don't like wins election in your new town? The whole family has to move again?
I think most moving out from NYC will want to buy in Nassau due to the commute, but a lot will depend on employers allowing teleworking/remote working.
If they do then I can see the potential for people considering further out in Suffolk. But it will take a major mindset change for NYC residents to consider “the sticks”.
Good luck!
Let’s keep that mindset!! Stay away from Suffolk, granted I am in fake Suffolk, every home near me sells in a few weeks tops. The only houses that I see that didn’t sell was the idiot asking 740k for a home worth 575k, after 8 months it sold for 607k. Some of the 1.5m+ houses sit longer. A new build with almost on a major road sold right away. I don’t think anything past Commack will ever boom. There are the exceptions homes in 3 village schools due to the university, lab and hedgefund.
I see Long Island sales volumes declining dramatically in 2020. The annual pace had been in high 20,000s, but won't come close to that level this year. Price data in 2020 will be less meaningful than in previous years due to the current extraordinary economic and social situation. In 2020, buyers and sellers will put their plans on hold, with the big losers being the brokers and others who depend on transaction volume for their livelihoods.
In 2021, the economy will be back on its feet, as will society. Pent up demand will match the bottled up supply and the Long Island housing market will return to normal, though not as hot as 2019 when prices rose 5.6% compared to 2018, making Long Island one of the hottest housing markets in the country.
And we actually have demographic data on NYC schools which shows that the Asian population is the fastest growing, and much larger than the North Shore LI. Whether or not you moved from Dumbo to LI has nothing to do with anything.
Are you seriously claiming you moved to LI only because DeBlasio got elected? Sounds bizarre. DeBlasio will leave in a year, so then you're gonna move back? What happens if a mayor you don't like wins election in your new town? The whole family has to move again?
Don't want to turn this into an excessively political thread. But I lived through Democratic NYC mayors (Koch, Dinkins. Alive during Beame but have no memory of him) and Republican mayors (Giuliani and Bloomberg). I know what its like when democrat mayors take over (more crime, filth, etc). So when Deblasio got elected, and having 2 small children, I knew to sell while my condo while it still had maximum value and get the hell out Dodge. You are correct in that LI is dirt cheap (even the North Shore where I live) compare to NYC. Taxes are high, but you get more bang for your buck here.
Crime has dropped considerably under DeBlasio (though not really because of him). And Bloomberg and Giuliani weren't Republican mayors, they ran on the Republican ticket because they couldn't win by running in the Democratic primary. The crime drops in NYC are due to larger demographic changes (huge drops in young population, esp. among AAs, increases in immigration, young professionals and Hasidic population) not who is sitting in City Hall.
Anyways, my larger point is that there isn't some mass exodus of Asians from NYC, and the Asian growth on the North Shore long predates DeBlasio. People tend to not base their moving decisions on political elections, because people are always getting voted in/out and it would be pretty crazy to move every time someone you don't like assumes office.
And it makes sense that Asians like the North Shore. It's a good value, great schools and services. I don't think it's a great long-term investment compared to NYC, but who cares if your kids are getting a good education and you aren't planning on selling anytime soon.
Right, the path remains the same. But the motivation is a bit different. Again, the North Shore is cheaper than staying in the City. In the 1960's, 1970's, and 1980's, someone moving from NYC to (say) Jericho or East Hills was generally "moving up". Nowadays it's mostly because they can't afford something good in the city.
A decent 2-bedroom in Park Slope is probably at least $1.2 million. Manhattan is obviously more. At that price you can buy a lot of house on LI. And it's a house, not a dinky 2-bedroom. You can't get a true family-sized residence in a good neighborhood in the City for less than $2 million. At that range you're entering top-tier LI neighborhoods.
I don't disagree but this is way old news. Been this way for 40+ years. You wanted/needed space, schools, a yard and affordability it was always LI. It was and still never is, "gotta get to LI to save me from exorbitant NYC costs". We made sure to tax gouge everyone to even up those odds. It's still, on LI "afford a home but get killed on taxes" or in NYC "overextend on a home but the taxes are half." The tangibles like lighted ballfields and a clean spacious Target are LI's current calling cards. That and strong segregation. D'oh! White flighters love segregation, even the Asian ones apparently.
oops, did I say that out loud? I meant beaches and bagels!
It's not really an "exodus," more of a moving sidewalk. new demographics step on and off all the time.
I agree with all that. My point is that in 1980, Jericho was much more expensive than NYC. In 2020, NYC is much more expensive than Jericho. So the push-pull factors are a bit different. LI will always have higher property taxes and NYC will always have income taxes.
Also, white flight is kinda an outdated term. LI is extremely diverse. There are now tons of whites in NYC neighborhoods like Bed Stuy and Bushwick. In 1980, basically none. The whole region is a (demographic) mixed salad bowl these days. There are a few places, like Garden City, with minimal diversity, but those are definitely the exception.
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