Student enrollment on Long Island falls 7% in decade (New York, Hempstead: real estate, 2014)
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I also wonder how much homeschooling, an increase in charter schools and people using private options play a part in this.
From the article: "Student enrollment has declined in three out of four Long Island school districts over the past decade, as much as 25% in some, as schools grapple with families having fewer children, an aging population and people leaving who can't afford to live here, according to state figures and a Newsday analysis.
Of Long Island's 124 school districts, 94, or 76%, saw their student population drop from the 2012-13 school year to the 2022-23 school year, with some districts seeing substantial decreases, including Kings Park (-29%), Port Jefferson (-26%), West Hempstead (-23%), Smithtown (-22%) and Commack (-21%), according to the most recent figures from the state Department of Education.
In total, the Island's student population dropped by 33,394, or 7.33%, in the decade, from 455,384 to 421,990, the figures show.
The dwindling enrollment “is a result of declining birthrates, and Long Island attracting fewer movers from elsewhere in the United States than it had previously,” said Ken Girardin, research director at the Empire Center for Public Policy, a fiscally conservative think tank in Albany.
The enrollment reduction occurred during a period when the Island population actually increased, according to the latest census data. The population rose by 60,685, or 2.1%, from 2012 to 2022, to a total of 2.9 million.
Experts say the Island is aging overall, and that families are having fewer children.
The median age on the Island increased from 40.9 in 2012 to 41.8 in 2022, census figures showed. Nassau County's birthrate decreased from 10.6 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 9.9 in 2020, according to state figures. Suffolk's birthrate decreased from 11.3 to 10 in that time.
The Island is also experiencing many people moving away, due to, among other issues, the high cost of living here, the figures show. From 2021 to 2022, Nassau County lost 11,915 people and Suffolk County lost 12,128 due to domestic migration, according to Census Bureau figures.
Kings Park Superintendent Timothy Eagen said the Island's cost of living “makes it tough for young people. It's hard to keep young people here on Long Island.”
Suffolk County saw a far greater loss of students than Nassau did.
Suffolk lost 26,610 students in a decade, a drop of 10.5%. In Nassau, enrollment declined by 6,784, or 3.3%, according to state figures. The numbers include students from pre-K to 12th grade. Local planners speculated that Nassau lost fewer students due to the proximity to the city and job opportunities.
School enrollment, which has been dropping across the state, stands at the center of debate as lawmakers craft the new state budget. Gov. Kathy Hochul wants to eliminate the “hold harmless” policy over school aid. The policy, in existence for decades, has meant school districts could generally count on receiving as much state aid as they got in the previous year, even if they saw enrollment declines.
So even though many Island schools have seen their number of students dwindle, the districts have been essentially protected from drastic state cuts, Girardin said.
Hochul, who cited enrollment downturns in her plan, also has said school districts are sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars in reserve funds that could be tapped, instead of “hoarded,” to offset any state-aid reductions. Her plan has met resistance from school districts and both Democratic and Republican lawmakers, who say the cuts could mean teacher and staff layoffs.
State education aid can vary widely from district to district, depending on population, wealth, poverty and the local tax burden, Girardin said. The aid is coupled in school budgets with money raised through local taxes.
“The governor is trying to tame the growth of school aid, which is the second-largest part of the budget,” he said, noting that one quarter of all taxes and fees collected by the state go to school aid. (Hence, why school taxes are the biggest portion of property taxes)
Some school districts are “swimming in cash, and the governor is correctly pointing that out,” Girardin said. “She's ripping off the Band-Aid. It [school aid] is not under control.”
Many Long Island school officials strongly disagree.
They assert that districts had to shift money for priorities such as greater mental health services — especially since the disruptions of the pandemic — as well as school security, and increases in special-needs students and those learning English as a second language.
“There's been an increase in student needs. Maybe they had a reduction in teachers but they needed more social workers,” said Bob Vecchio, executive director of the Nassau-Suffolk School Boards Association.
The governor's plan would mean less state assistance for 337 of the state’s 700-plus school districts — including 44 on Long Island. At least 77 Island districts would gain more than $182 million in state assistance under the proposal.
The state budget is due April 1, though it’s been late the last two years. Statewide, school voting day is May 21."
Several districts have been forced to close schools due to enrollment declines, including Northport-East Northport, Lindenhurst, West Islip, Mineola, Baldwin and North Bellmore, while others have decreased staff.
The Three Village district experienced a drop of 1,495 students, or 20.8%, in a decade, state figures show, and Superintendent Kevin Scanlon said he's seen the changes in his community. After the 2008 Great Recession, he said, he saw many older residents holding onto their homes as values decreased.
Rental homes in the area that once held families now are filled with students from Stony Brook University, he said.
The churn of incoming and outgoing students has changed the district's demographic profile, he said. Students in poverty rose from 4% to 14.5% of the student body over a decade. Students learning English as a second language rose from 1.5% to 2%, Hispanic students rose from 4% to 9%, and Asian students increased from 9% to 13%, he said.
The enrollment decline has prompted Three Village to reshuffle grades among its buildings to better spread the number of students, he said. The plan, which will occur in the 2025-26 school year, will move the sixth grade from the elementary schools to two junior highs, and move the ninth grade from the junior highs to the high school, he said.
Three Village had examined closing an elementary school due to the declining enrollment but chose not to because the state plans to increase prekindergarten, and the district may need the additional space, he said.
The Island's enrollment declines mirror the picture across the state. Enrollment in New York public schools this year sank to its lowest level since the early 1950s, according to a recent report by the Empire Center for Public Policy. Since 2011-12, the last year in which enrollment rose, the number of students in New York public schools dropped 320,209, or 11.9%, the center said.
The Center Moriches district saw a drop of 185 students, or 10.7%, according to state figures. Behind those numbers are some significant changes in the makeup of the student body, Superintendent Ron Masera said.
The percentage of white students in Center Moriches has dropped from about 80% to 70% in a decade, while the ratio of Hispanic students has nearly doubled, from 11% to 21%, he said. The Black student population has remained relatively stable at about 5%, he said.
The changes have driven up the percentage of students needing instruction in English as a second language, from 4% to 7%, and the percentage of economically disadvantaged students shot up from 18% to 29%, he said.
More than ever, schools are providing more services for mental health and disabled students, he said.
“It's not just local, this is national. The trend is going toward school-based mental health centers,” Masera said.
'Blessing and a curse'
“Declining enrollment has been both a blessing and a curse,” said Eagen, the Kings Park superintendent.
That district has lost 1,104 students in the past decade, according to state figures. Eagen said that as soon as he was hired in 2014, he saw that the incoming kindergarten class was significantly smaller than the graduating class.
As enrollment declined in the elementary level, it freed up space that had been overcrowded and allowed for six more prekindergarten classes, he said.
Kings Park also has seen changes in the student body, he said. The number of children who qualify for free or reduced lunches has grown over the past decade from 8% to 16%. In that time, the district has added five teachers for students learning English as a second language, he said.
“While we have less students and less classroom teachers today, we have more support staff to address the learning and mental health needs of our students,” Eagen said. He noted the district has hired five additional social workers and a psychologist in the past decade.
Eagen said the enrollment decline has not impacted the quality of education. The district's AP programs have expanded, and the district offers more courses for college credit than a decade ago, he said.
“Some of the sports teams are smaller due to the declining enrollment, but we have not cut any programs,” he said.
Eagen said he sees enrollment leveling off to the point where this year's elementary class was about the same size as its graduating class.
State aid comprises about 20% of the school budget in Kings Park, with local taxes making up the rest, he said. If Hochul's proposed budget is approved by the State Legislature, the district would lose $850,000 in state aid, he said.
Eagen said local real estate agents tell him the housing market is very tight, and the number of homes on the market is low.
“There's not a lot of new families moving in,” he said.
In smaller districts, the loss of enrollment can be devastating.
In New Suffolk, the elementary-level student body dwindled from 14 in 2020-21, according to state figures, to six this year. The students attend classes in the district's three-room schoolhouse.
Residents will vote March 5 on a plan that would send all students to classes outside New Suffolk's boundaries on a tuition basis. The red schoolhouse would remain in use, possibly as a community center, officials said.
Looking ahead, the Island's student population is expected to continue its slow-but-steady decrease into 2025, dropping about 1.5% by then, according to a 2023 study by Western Suffolk BOCES.
Some districts have seen growth
A total of 30 Island districts saw their student body grow in number, some significantly, according to state figures. They include Wyandanch (24.9% increase), Central Islip (17%), East Meadow (9.7%), and Floral Park-Bellerose (8.6%).
Enrollment in the Brentwood school district, among the largest in the state with some 18,000 students, saw an increase of 675 students in a decade, a 3.7% bump.
Brentwood has seen transience among its students, which is not uncommon in areas with lower-income families, Superintendent Wanda Ortiz-Rivera said. Families move in and out due to work opportunities, she said.
Some of the enrollment increases came in prekindergarten students and immigrant students, she said. The percentage of Hispanic students has grown from 79% a decade ago to 87% now, she said.
The demographic shift has pushed the district to hire more bilingual educators as well as counselors, she said. The district also has set up food pantries at the high school and central administration building, she said.
Some of the immigrant students come to the district lacking basic language and education skills, she said.
“Our teachers work very hard to catch them up,” Ortiz-Rivera said."
Do these numbers include students enrolled in private schools or home school? Although not using everyday resources, Districts do still need to account for these students and be prepared for them. They also may still be on the hook for bus service and books, or any special needs required for the student
Wyandanch used to be a steal back in the late 2000s. 4 bedrooms for 100K was common. Only thing was I would have had to commute to the city, that prolly would have eaten up my cost in savings, and I would have to worry about the weather. I'm from NYC, I wasn't worried about the crime. I was actually doing some research on it. Any locale on LI with a LIRR train station is a benefit IMO. Interesting to see almost a 25% increase for Wyandanch, wonder what is the cause.
__________________
"The man who sleeps on the floor, can never fall out of bed." -Martin Lawrence
Wyandanch used to be a steal back in the late 2000s. 4 bedrooms for 100K was common. Only thing was I would have had to commute to the city, that prolly would have eaten up my cost in savings, and I would have to worry about the weather. I'm from NYC, I wasn't worried about the crime. I was actually doing some research on it. Any locale on LI with a LIRR train station is a benefit IMO. Interesting to see almost a 25% increase for Wyandanch, wonder what is the cause.
Wyandanch is a majority minority school district now, mainly Latino. I just checked the NYS enrollment data and in 1999-2000 89.6% of the students were black and 9.7% latino. As of 2002-2003, 64% of the students were latino while 34% were black, which is a massive demographic shift.
The recent enrollment increases (which are mainly in minority districts like Uniondale, Wyandanch, etc.) are due to illegal immigration and the carving up of single family homes in these districts into apts. So where one family once lived, now three, most with school age children. These districts are hurt because those three families once would have paid 3 sets of taxes, but now the district has to educate these kids without the benefit of new housing/taxes that would usually come with such large enrollment increases. Plus, many of those kids require add'l language resources, with 30% of the Wyandanch students classified as English language learners.
Wyandanch is a majority minority school district now, mainly Latino. I just checked the NYS enrollment data and in 1999-2000 89.6% of the students were black and 9.7% latino. As of 2002-2003, 64% of the students were latino while 34% were black, which is a massive demographic shift.
The recent enrollment increases (which are mainly in minority districts like Uniondale, Wyandanch, etc.) are due to illegal immigration and the carving up of single family homes in these districts into apts. So where one family once lived, now three, most with school age children. These districts are hurt because those three families once would have paid 3 sets of taxes, but now the district has to educate these kids without the benefit of new housing/taxes that would usually come with such large enrollment increases. Plus, many of those kids require add'l language resources, with 30% of the Wyandanch students classified as English language learners.
Wow. Thanks for the info.
__________________
"The man who sleeps on the floor, can never fall out of bed." -Martin Lawrence
I also wonder how much homeschooling, an increase in charter schools and people using private options play a part in this.
From the article: "Student enrollment has declined in three out of four Long Island school districts over the past decade, as much as 25% in some, as schools grapple with families having fewer children, an aging population and people leaving who can't afford to live here, according to state figures and a Newsday analysis.
Nothing new there. The decrease of school age children on LI has been expected since ~2010 when almost every SD on LI paid for a demographic study od it's population. It's only now being reported that the reported results of those studies was pretty good!
Nothing new there. The decrease of school age children on LI has been expected since ~2010 when almost every SD on LI paid for a demographic study od it's population. It's only now being reported that the reported results of those studies was pretty good!
Exactly!
Don't know why anyone would be shocked by this news. Across New York and elsewhere it's same thing; people (aside from certain demographics) are either having smaller families or just not breeding children at all. This has been going on for a few decades and now is beginning to show with declining enrollments for K-12. Higher education isn't necessarily going to take a hit (yet) because many colleges/universities can accept international students which helps even things out.
Far as LI and many other parts of NY and elsewhere it's often large waves if Asians and perhaps Latinos buying homes in areas with good to excellent schools (private or public) that has made declining enrollments not bad as they otherwise would. Sooner or later those sources will die down as well, then what comes next is anyone's guess.
Don't know why anyone would be shocked by this news. Across New York and elsewhere it's same thing; people (aside from certain demographics) are either having smaller families or just not breeding children at all. This has been going on for a few decades and now is beginning to show with declining enrollments for K-12. Higher education isn't necessarily going to take a hit (yet) because many colleges/universities can accept international students which helps even things out.
Far as LI and many other parts of NY and elsewhere it's often large waves if Asians and perhaps Latinos buying homes in areas with good to excellent schools (private or public) that has made declining enrollments not bad as they otherwise would. Sooner or later those sources will die down as well, then what comes next is anyone's guess.
What should happen:
Less kids means less teachers and staff and consolidation of buildings. This should lead to minimal if any property tax hikes, no reduction because that would be nuts.
What will happen:
Nothing and taxes will still go up even with the need for less staff.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
