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I know everyone is giving advice, which is nice, but I think the way they're saying it is a little harsh. We're doing everything we can to save. I go a few years without buying clothes, I only own 1 pair of sneakers and work shoes, I don't have a car so I can save money, etc. I think people are thinking i'm a superficial, stereotypical Long Island girl who needs to have expensive items to show off. My fiance can agree that I'm the opposite. It's more than just the wedding; at least we're saving as much as we can. I'm sure there are people out there who have dirt cheap weddings, but they live an expensive lifestyle. On the other hand, you have my fiance and I who have an average priced wedding, but live as cheap as we can.
The sum total of what most posters are saying is that with their perspective in life and their wedding day far removed they know the true value of a wedding reception relative to married life.
Have your day and don't apologize for it. We all spend money on things that are long forgotten and in the end likely total up to way more than the cost of a wedding reception. It's an important bookmark in your lives and will always remain as such.
As for the thread topic; I wonder how the economy will impact on industries beyond real estate, such as the wedding machine. People won't be able to pull equity out of their homes so easily, investment portfolio's are way down and disposable income is likely to fade away. Can anyone really justify a $100 a plate dinner anymore?
It probably won't be 25,000. It might be more than 18, 20k. We're saving as much as we possibly can. My wedding dress is used from the 1940s and was only about $100. Compare that to my friends outside of Long Island who have spent $800 on theirs. We're going to get things from dollar tree to decorate the reception hall. I'm aware of how much we have to save; it's mostly the reception hall that the money is being spent on, and the fact that I have a lot of friends/family going. Also, we're going to get some of that money back, so it's not like 20,000 will be all down the drain.
Relax everyone. Rachel, you seem to have a good head on your shoulders and are responsible. Have a great time at your wedding. Everything else will come in due time, particularly given your frugal ways. Yes, it is only one day, but my wife and I had a really great wedding, and yes it was expensive, but we had a celebration that we wanted, while keeping things somewhat reasonable. You will never win a financial debate over whether or not to spend money on an event or an asset, but if it is what you and your fiance want to celebrate your union...enjoy yourself!
Now, on to the real purpose of the thread. I agree with Tom Moser as it pertains to this region. We will drift, not plunge, but because this region will not plunge, we will stagnate without much if any appreciation through 2010, at least.
Relax everyone. Rachel, you seem to have a good head on your shoulders and are responsible. Have a great time at your wedding. Everything else will come in due time, particularly given your frugal ways. Yes, it is only one day, but my wife and I had a really great wedding, and yes it was expensive, but we had a celebration that we wanted, while keeping things somewhat reasonable. You will never win a financial debate over whether or not to spend money on an event or an asset, but if it is what you and your fiance want to celebrate your union...enjoy yourself!
Now, on to the real purpose of the thread. I agree with Tom Moser as it pertains to this region. We will drift, not plunge, but because this region will not plunge, we will stagnate without much if any appreciation through 2010, at least.
I wonder if it is time to move or improve?
Moving?
There are lots of homes for sale out there, but most homes still seem to be over priced. The nicest homes in the most desired areas are still going for a premium. Doesn't seem much slack there.
Then does it make sense to improve?
Are contractors lowering their costs? I doubt it. But with an economic slow down you would think that contractors will be scrambling for work and thus willing to cut prices.
If building costs are cut it could be an ideal time to expand a home now. When the market rebounds, as it always does, the homeowner can reap the benefits of investing in the home.
Just wondering, do you think the price of housing on LI will go back up to it's peak anytime soon? I'm thinking a rebound may mean different things to different people depending on when they bought.
Just wondering, do you think the price of housing on LI will go back up to it's peak anytime soon? I'm thinking a rebound may mean different things to different people depending on when they bought.
Depends on job market. If the NYC financial sector starts laying off people by the thousands then it will be a longer time before prices go back up to 2006 levels. LI real estate has always been out of step with family household income levels. So maybe home prices have to decline a ways before they can rebound. Perhaps as much as 20%.
However, if the Federal Reserve starts incresing the money supply and interest rates go very low then that might inflate housing prices. The problem is is that easy money led to the housing bubble in the first place. I'd expect the Fed to try and inflate away the financial crisis of today.
...... "Are contractors lowering their costs? I doubt it. But with an economic slow down you would think that contractors will be scrambling for work and thus willing to cut prices."
Everyone thinks we've already hit rock-bottom and I think we're just seeing the tip of the iceberg. The entire trade industry is going to take a huge hit which hasn't settled in yet because home equity funding is still a factor; that's already changing.
I know for a fact that institutions are already aggressively closing HELOC's which is within their right to do so. They're also not issuing them anymore due to the decline (either perceived or real) in home values. So disposable cash is drying up which is what largely funds the home improvement market. This will continue to shake out for the next year or two.
Although the government is shoring up the credit markets with the bailout bill the entire lending industry is going to change dramatically. Everything is going to look and act differently in the near future than what we know it to be today; there's no easy way to predict exactly how.
I'm seeing a major disconnect between what sellers want and what we (buyers) want to offer. Sellers are pricing their house at 2005 bubble prices (we are looking in the Albertson/East Williston area). The agents will whisper to us that the sellers are "negotiable" but who the hell wants to negotiate with a seller who already has an unreasonable price as a starting point. When I mention that I can afford to wait because I believe prices will fall further to at least 2000/2001 level; every RE agent rolls their eyes. These same RE agents told me a year ago that prices will 'never' go down. They all say that prices will soon turn around....and now is great time to buy because it's the bottom and interest rates are low. They all try and and use the 'scare tactic' of saying that interest rates will soon go up. They give me that blank look when I mention that house prices will go down further if interest rates go up. None of them seem to have the slightest inkling of real estate economics. They all parrot the same lines no matter what agency they represent. Their must be some book or "talking points" powerpoint floating around among these agencies that these RE agents are boning up on Then I see houses go off the market and come back in 1-2 mths as a new listing. Or, the RE agent will make it a point to say that price is now reduced. Price is reduced all right! but only by lousy $10k-$20k - nowhere even close to realistic. RE agents, I'm sure, are wonderful folks .... but if your household income depends on selling houses....then it would be very hard for them to wrap their heads around the concept of prices going down to a substantial degree. Would you ask a barber if your hair needs cutting? Just my thoughts.
Oh! by the way - saw my first foreclosure in Albertson. Many more on the way......
Depends on job market. If the NYC financial sector starts laying off people by the thousands then it will be a longer time before prices go back up to 2006 levels. LI real estate has always been out of step with family household income levels. So maybe home prices have to decline a ways before they can rebound. Perhaps as much as 20%.
However, if the Federal Reserve starts incresing the money supply and interest rates go very low then that might inflate housing prices. The problem is is that easy money led to the housing bubble in the first place. I'd expect the Fed to try and inflate away the financial crisis of today.
I think the job market will be part of the equation, but borrowing based on income fundamentals are going to be what determines where prices bottom out. Suspension of the 2.5 to 3 times salary and the 28/36% housing/total debt ratio is what caused this problem. So far as I know, LI was never that far out of step with these fundamentals. The house I purchased on LI in 1995 was just under 3 times my household income and within the debt ratio. The mortgage company would not go any higher for the amount they would lend me. Being pre-approved at this level let me know how much house I could afford for my income level.
I think you’re in the ball park with another 20% decline (which would account for an LI area premium), but I think it could go as high as 33%. It depends on how bad the job fall out is from this crisis. And after all, if an area has a median household income of $100K, fundamentals suggest the median home price in that area should be around $300K. In current terms, if the median home price in Nassau County is $470K, that’s 36% over the fundamental level.
If you stop and think about it, it is hard for people to live and afford beyond this limit which is why a lot of people who bought in the last 8 years are complaining. For those who bought more than 8 years ago, they’re complaining about the run up in taxes.
I disagree with the line of thinking that LI will see a lot of foreclosures, however for 2 reasons. First, the LI homeowner demographic is fairly stable. Second, in NY state, foreclosing is a very lengthy process (up to 18 months) so many are settled before they get that far.
The areas you are looking into are prime...Herricks SD?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Babui
I'm seeing a major disconnect between what sellers want and what we (buyers) want to offer. Sellers are pricing their house at 2005 bubble prices (we are looking in the Albertson/East Williston area). The agents will whisper to us that the sellers are "negotiable" but who the hell wants to negotiate with a seller who already has an unreasonable price as a starting point. When I mention that I can afford to wait because I believe prices will fall further to at least 2000/2001 level; every RE agent rolls their eyes. These same RE agents told me a year ago that prices will 'never' go down. They all say that prices will soon turn around....and now is great time to buy because it's the bottom and interest rates are low. They all try and and use the 'scare tactic' of saying that interest rates will soon go up. They give me that blank look when I mention that house prices will go down further if interest rates go up. None of them seem to have the slightest inkling of real estate economics. They all parrot the same lines no matter what agency they represent. Their must be some book or "talking points" powerpoint floating around among these agencies that these RE agents are boning up on Then I see houses go off the market and come back in 1-2 mths as a new listing. Or, the RE agent will make it a point to say that price is now reduced. Price is reduced all right! but only by lousy $10k-$20k - nowhere even close to realistic. RE agents, I'm sure, are wonderful folks .... but if your household income depends on selling houses....then it would be very hard for them to wrap their heads around the concept of prices going down to a substantial degree. Would you ask a barber if your hair needs cutting? Just my thoughts.
Oh! by the way - saw my first foreclosure in Albertson. Many more on the way......
Sounds like you want Albertson in Herricks SD - that is still prime as is East Williston. I wouldn't expect sellers there to drop prices too much.
Most of the price declines are in the more working class neighborhoods: Levittown, East Meadow, etc... of Nassau. And of course all over Suffolk County.
Nassau neighborhoods closer to NYC with good LIRR connections and good schools WILL NOT see big declines like you are expecting.
If you want a real deal, look further out on Long Island in Dix Hills, Commack or Smithtown.
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Is it time to move or improve?
Then I see houses go off the market and come back in 1-2 mths as a new listing. Or, the RE agent will make it a point to say that price is now reduced. Price is reduced all right! but only by lousy $10k-$20k - nowhere even close to realistic. RE agents, I'm sure, are wonderful folks .... but if your household income depends on selling houses....then it would be very hard for them to wrap their heads around the concept of prices going down to a substantial degree. Would you ask a barber if your hair needs cutting? Just my thoughts. 
