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well we lucked out having apartments in a very prestigious building next door to lincoln center...... but the point is it takes time to make money... we bought these apartments with rent stabilized tenants many many years ago..
it was a waiting game for decades... we had to wait for them to either take a lease buyout or die .... for decades we collected below market rent as they were stabilized tenants.. you would have looked at the deal, the rent, the economy and probley said what a crappy deal . we barely covered expenses .... whether we bought in 10% higher then the bottom or 20% didnt matter in the scheme of things.. all that matters is today we are selling them for over 1 million each with nice gains making it all about TIME IN THE MARKETS NOT TIMING THE MARKETS....
most people who try to time things end up paralyzing themselves with what if's and never act.... there is no such thing as a good time for them as they always see some disaster pending when prices are low and prices are to high when things are good. and so they make little or no money ..... they have visions of a bell being rung and they are going to jump in and save lots of money....unfourtunely the investment world rarely works like that...
check out morningstars tracking now of the small investor... they track money flow and investors sell exactly when they should be buying and buying when they should be selling..its human nature... those that do it right without capturing the bottom of things do real nice with the 80% gains in the middle... they leave the 10% at the top and the bottom to those with the crystal balls that can time things
Last edited by mathjak107; 03-15-2009 at 01:50 PM..
try going until the loan is paid off ,, at 6% a 30 yr loan for 390,000 costs 2329.00 a month .... at the same payment of 2329 at 7% it only gets you 350,000 worth of money..... same as if the house jumped 40,000 bucks in price .. you would now have to borrow an additional 40 grand to get up to the 390,000
normally you want to pay less for the house and refinance the rate later on when rates drop... at this point though with rates the lowest in history your chance of ever refinancing lower then even 5% maybe over
You are totally on point and I wholeheartedly agree with you that if I buy the house and stay put in it for 30 years, I will gain on the 5% interest rate.... but I don't see myself doing that (30 yrs I mean ).... thats the catch and thats why I'm in kinda hurry but not desperate.
well we lucked out having apartments in a very prestigious building next door to lincoln center...... but the point is it takes time to make money... we bought these apartments with rent stabilized tenants many many years ago..
it was a waiting game for decades... we had to wait for them to either take a lease buyout or die .... for decades we collected below market rent as they were stabilized tenants.. you would have looked at the deal, the rent, the economy and probley said what a crappy deal . we barely covered expenses .... whether we bought in 10% higher then the bottom or 20% didnt matter in the scheme of things.. all that matters is today we are selling them for over 1 million each with nice gains making it all about TIME IN THE MARKETS NOT TIMING THE MARKETS....
most people who try to time things end up paralyzing themselves with what if's and never act.... there is no such thing as a good time for them as they always see some disaster pending and so they make little or no money ..... they have visions of a bell being rung and they are going to jump in and save lots of money....unfourtunely the investment world rarely works like that...
check out morningstars tracking now of the small investor... they track money flow and investors sell exactly when they should be buying and buying when they should be selling..its human nature... those that do it right without capturing the bottom of things do real nice with the 80% gains in the middle... they leave the 10% at the top and the bottom to those with the crystal balls that can time things
Last year, when the housing bubble burst, it was more or less confined to that sector. However, that was certainly not the case and has now bled in to the entire economy. If there was job security right now, there would be a rationale in my opinion for a first-time buyer to look to buy - - although we are still at well-over inflated housing prices. In addition, last year you would have paid 10-12% more - - housing is a depreciating asset. And now it is hitting Manhattan. So, by not buying last year or the year before proves that it was very sound investment strategy - - buy low, sell high (maybe.....) .
It will be interesting to see your sales hit-rate over the next 12 months in the city.
just remember what i said, its time in the markets not timing them....
playing around with long term investments in a short term horizon is risky, in fact its not called investing its called speculating....
you can make money speculating but you can loose big time too.... its a zero sum game with a loser for every winner unlike long term investing which is usually win/win as all partys buy and sell an asset and make money
well we lucked out having apartments in a very prestigious building next door to lincoln center...... but the point is it takes time to make money... we bought these apartments with rent stabilized tenants many many years ago..
it was a waiting game for decades... we had to wait for them to either take a lease buyout or die .... for decades we collected below market rent as they were stabilized tenants.. you would have looked at the deal, the rent, the economy and probley said what a crappy deal . we barely covered expenses .... whether we bought in 10% higher then the bottom or 20% didnt matter in the scheme of things.. all that matters is today we are selling them for over 1 million each with nice gains making it all about TIME IN THE MARKETS NOT TIMING THE MARKETS....
most people who try to time things end up paralyzing themselves with what if's and never act.... there is no such thing as a good time for them as they always see some disaster pending when prices are low and prices are to high when things are good. and so they make little or no money ..... they have visions of a bell being rung and they are going to jump in and save lots of money....unfourtunely the investment world rarely works like that...
check out morningstars tracking now of the small investor... they track money flow and investors sell exactly when they should be buying and buying when they should be selling..its human nature... those that do it right without capturing the bottom of things do real nice with the 80% gains in the middle... they leave the 10% at the top and the bottom to those with the crystal balls that can time things
Additionally, you are obviously a developer or bldg owner and as such, have much more "working capital" than most if not all buyers. I dont think your example is moot to today's market nor today's residential, single-family home buyer.
Last year, when the housing bubble burst, it was more or less confined to that sector. However, that was certainly not the case and has now bled in to the entire economy. If there was job security right now, there would be a rationale in my opinion for a first-time buyer to look to buy - - although we are still at well-over inflated housing prices. In addition, last year you would have paid 10-12% more - - housing is a depreciating asset. And now it is hitting Manhattan. So, by not buying last year or the year before proves that it was very sound investment strategy - - buy low, sell high.
It will be interesting to see your sales hit-rate over the next 12 months in the city.
we only have 2 more left out of 9....so far the last 2 tenants arent interested yet in moving or being bought out.....
Additionally, you are obviously a developer or bldg owner and as such, have much more "working capital" than most if not all buyers. I dont think your example is moot to today's market nor today's residential, single-family home buyer.
we started with one 15,000 dollar investment in 1987.. a down payment on the first co-op...... we just kept building on our profits in other asset classes like equities until we had enough to buy into a family business... its not the amount thats important, its the strategy of not believing our own bulls*it and not paralyzing our selves when markets are down and look like they will go lower.
we started with one 15,000 dollar investment in 1987.. a down payment on the first co-op...... we just kept building on our profits in other asset classes like equities until we had enough to buy into a family business... its not the amount thats important, its the strategy of not believing our own bulls*it and not paralyzing our selves when markets are down and look like they will go lower.
You started in 1987 in a growing market. This is 2009 and incase you havent noticed, there are some "problems". Start with jobs and end with depreciating housing assets. There are currently ZERO facts right now pointing to an up-market - - unless you subscribe to the Larry Kudlow/CNBC school of BS economics. Read your own trade industry interviews and reports - - they are all over the news. Why should anyone buy still over-inflated housing right now? And with little job security? You are saying that this is all a "mental" state-of-mind thing?
You started in 1987 in a growing market. This is 2009 and incase you havent noticed, there are some "problems". Start with jobs and end with depreciating housing assets. There are currently ZERO facts right now pointing to an up-market - - unless you subscribe to the Larry Kudlow/CNBC school of BS economics. Read your own trade industry interviews and reports - - they are all over the news. Why should anyone buy still over-inflated housing right now? And with little job security? You are saying that this is all a "mental" state-of-mind thing?
modmondays.... what he/she probably means indirectly is "buy now" ... I mean "its the strategy of not believing our own bulls*it and not paralyzing our selves when markets are down and look like they will go lower. " is a pretty clear statement of where he/she stands.
You started in 1987 in a growing market. This is 2009 and incase you havent noticed, there are some "problems". Start with jobs and end with depreciating housing assets. There are currently ZERO facts right now pointing to an up-market - - unless you subscribe to the Larry Kudlow/CNBC school of BS economics. Read your own trade industry interviews and reports - - they are all over the news. Why should anyone buy still over-inflated housing right now? And with little job security? You are saying that this is all a "mental" state-of-mind thing?
1987 was no growing market, we had a huge crash in the stock markets that looked like the world was ending. real estate plunged and was down for almost 10 years.. co-ops took a 30% hit
you can find many reasons for not buying when things are down .... but thats when the money is made.... all the big losses happen when markets are strong and look great.... all the big money is made out of the depths of hell....when the word real estate or stocks makes you vomit...... everyone has to do what they feel is right for them, you have to sleep at night...... its no secret trick that successful investors use or the fact that they have capital,,,, its their mentality that allows them to buy when everyone else thinks they are nuts.
never forget the famous business week issue back in the 70's,,... equities were beat to death so bad for almost a decade that finally the magazine declared stocks dead as an investment.... they had not 1 reason for buying and their cover declared THE DEATH OF EQUITIES, complete with tombstone..
well from the next day on the greatest bull market in history started and never looked back at those levels
Last edited by mathjak107; 03-15-2009 at 02:43 PM..
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).... thats the catch and thats why I'm in kinda hurry but not desperate.
