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Looks like an 18% drop year over year, and home sellers are de-listing properties hoping to re-list them when property values improve. (Good luck with that!)
Looks like an 18% drop year over year, and home sellers are de-listing properties hoping to re-list them when property values improve. (Good luck with that!)
But all the sellers out there should keep the price of their home where they think it's valued, right scotty-boy?? Looks like the bad advice you and your buddy were spewing for a while turned out wrong as just about everyone who isn't selling a home suspected.
I think it is more telling to compare this quarter to last quarter rather than to this time last year. While cumulatively over the year there is an 18% drop, there was virtually no decline comparing this quarter to last. In most cases, there were more sales (which doesn't mean much because this is seasonal), less days on market, and selling prices did not change much from the first quarter with some sale price figures increasing. Condo sales actually had a substantial increase in price and number of sales which is surprising. This is also a time when rates were ridiculously low and the spike in rates at the end of quarter 2 may have a more detrimental effect on the current quarters numbers.
However, I do not think this indicates a bottom or plateau as some might suggest. From an affordability standpoint, prices are still too high.
I think it is more telling to compare this quarter to last quarter rather than to this time last year. While cumulatively over the year there is an 18% drop, there was virtually no decline comparing this quarter to last. In most cases, there were more sales (which doesn't mean much because this is seasonal), less days on market, and selling prices did not change much from the first quarter with some sale price figures increasing. Condo sales actually had a substantial increase in price and number of sales which is surprising. This is also a time when rates were ridiculously low and the spike in rates at the end of quarter 2 may have a more detrimental effect on the current quarters numbers.
However, I do not think this indicates a bottom or plateau as some might suggest. From an affordability standpoint, prices are still too high.
Yes, your analysis is correct. There is usually a quite significant increase in median sales values during the peak selling season (2Q), and this year has a lower seasonal increase than the past several years. When you see a significant decline in the seasonal increase you know price declines are on the way - the market will see prices decline significantly in the slower third and fourth quarter of the year, when most price declines take shape.
In the seasonal roller coaster of home values, we've reached a peak (vs the trough in q4/q1), and it was only a few percent higher. Then we go down again from here.
@JMAX, this means it at the current rate of home sales, it would take 17.8 months to sell all of the current inventory assuming no new homes were added to the market. This is an indicator of demand at current pricing levels. The higher this number gets, the more likely price declines are to occur. Contrast this to 2006 - where there was only couple months of inventory on the market. This was at a time where it seemed like there were no properties left on the market and if you didn't buy one now you'd be instantly priced out. If you look at this versus last year, this means the downward pressure on home prices is much higher this year than last, and home price declines are accelerating.
@JMAX, this means it at the current rate of home sales, it would take 17.8 months to sell all of the current inventory assuming no new homes were added to the market. This is an indicator of demand at current pricing levels. The higher this number gets, the more likely price declines are to occur. Contrast this to 2006 - where there was only couple months of inventory on the market. This was at a time where it seemed like there were no properties left on the market and if you didn't buy one now you'd be instantly priced out. If you look at this versus last year, this means the downward pressure on home prices is much higher this year than last, and home price declines are accelerating.
JMAX, the above is a very good explanation.... only other thing that I can see why you may be confused is the verbiage "traditionally the peak of the market"
In this case I think the poster meant the time of the year as the peak as in the maximum activity period.
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