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Well, that was hypothetical, if you paid down 50K and took 50K in equity for pavers, you're in the same boat.
Part of the problem is most people bought homes with very little down because the banks were giving no money down mortgages. So you can forget the 50K down. You would be hard pressed to find someone who put 10% down on a home bought between 2001-2004.
This is a huge thing you seem to be missing when you talk about the housing market. Once this short sale/foreclosure thing gets worked out, house prices will stabilize and possibly go up, not down, regardless of interest rates. People who aren't walking away from their homes will stay. This will reduce inventory which will drive prices up, or at least stop the bleeding. Supply and demand.
Long Island operates in a bubble. We aren't subject to micro economies the way other parts of the country are. This is why we see the unemployed driving around in new cars.
Your logic is flawed. I think you will see endless for sale signs with no buyers, because the homeowners can't get what they need for they house, just like in the 80's. Notice I said *need*, not want.
Part of the problem is most people bought homes with very little down because the banks were giving no money down mortgages. So you can forget the 50K down. You would be hard pressed to find someone who put 10% down on a home bought between 2001-2004.
This is a huge thing you seem to be missing when you talk about the housing market. Once this short sale/foreclosure thing gets worked out, house prices will stabilize and possibly go up, not down, regardless of interest rates. People who aren't walking away from their homes will stay. This will reduce inventory which will drive prices up, or at least stop the bleeding. Supply and demand.
Long Island operates in a bubble. We aren't subject to micro economies the way other parts of the country are. This is why we see the unemployed driving around in new cars.
Your logic is flawed. I think you will see endless for sale signs with no buyers, because the homeowners can't get what they need for they house, just like in the 80's. Notice I said *need*, not want.
There's an inconsistency between these 2 sections of your post. How can prices go up if no one can get approved to pay higher prices? The latest forecast is that unemployment will peak by the end of next year. When do you think we will see average income go up again? 5 years? 10 Years?
If banks are not giving out bad loans, and salaries aren't going up, and most calculations used to give loans say that average family on Long Island can afford a 250K home....the numbers just don't work out for what you believe will happen.
You're saying that people won't take less money for their house..so they won't sell, because they NEED 500K to break even. So, the house won't sell. What was the end result of the bust in the early 80's? People who bought got deals, even if volume went down. Yes, every once-in-awhile, someone will overpay for a house because they have the money, but the big picture is that people who have to sell will have to sell for less.
You seem to think that just because volume of sales goes down that prices will stay up...some sort of supply/demand curve....we're not talking about tickle me Elmo dolls here. There is always some inventory of houses and there is always someone who has to sell out there.
There's an inconsistency between these 2 sections of your post. How can prices go up if no one can get approved to pay higher prices? The latest forecast is that unemployment will peak by the end of next year. When do you think we will see average income go up again? 5 years? 10 Years?
If banks are not giving out bad loans, and salaries aren't going up, and most calculations used to give loans say that average family on Long Island can afford a 250K home....the numbers just don't work out for what you believe will happen.
You're saying that people won't take less money for their house..so they won't sell, because they NEED 500K to break even. So, the house won't sell. What was the end result of the bust in the early 80's? People who bought got deals, even if volume went down. Yes, every once-in-awhile, someone will overpay for a house because they have the money, but the big picture is that people who have to sell will have to sell for less.
You seem to think that just because volume of sales goes down that prices will stay up...some sort of supply/demand curve....we're not talking about tickle me Elmo dolls here. There is always some inventory of houses and there is always someone who has to sell out there.
You're helping me prove my point, which you don't see.
The numbers support exactly what I forsee happening in the coming years. Less money being thrown around by banks, tough economic times, etc all will contribute to stagnation of the housing market, not a lowering of the market.
The result of the 80's was a horrendous RE market. Sure there were deals-there are always deals (Right now is the best time in HISTORY to find a deal. They are called "Short sales" and "Foreclosures") but the overall RE market was royally screwed. But...housing prices did not go down (For the reasons I explained many times and don't wish to explain again) they stabilized, or went up.
The bigger point is IT DIDN'T MATTER if houses went down because anyone selling their house couldn't break even, so they COULDN'T sell, even though they wanted to. Same thing will happen now, just watch. once the foreclosure thing gets worked out (It will-banks don't lose money, they make money) there will be thousands and thousands of homes for sale and nobody will budge from the price they NEED to get. And home prices will stabilize.
Will there be deals? Sure, but you can't express an opinion that's specific to your needs/desires and tout that it is "The market conditions."
Most of the stabilization arguments are flawed because they require that short sales / foreclosures slow or stop... There's no indication that this will happen with unemployment and the still present ARMs set to strike on tons of homes.
Sitting on the house because you need a number is assuming you can pay for the house. This won't be the case in even more and more homes in the foreseeable future.
there will be thousands and thousands of homes for sale and nobody will budge from the price they NEED to get. And home prices will stabilize.
Excellent news because I NEED around $2.2M in order to get a luxury high-rise apartment in a big city of another country, pay off all bills, and never have to work again in my life.
Quote:
Originally Posted by scottzilla
Will there be deals? Sure, but you can't express an opinion that's specific to your needs/desires and tout that it is "The market conditions."
How do you come by this statement after the one you wrote directly above it? My NEED as the SELLER dictates the market conditions! Isn't that what you meant?
Excellent news because I NEED around $2.2M in order to get a luxury high-rise apartment in a big city of another country, pay off all bills, and never have to work again in my life.
How do you come by this statement after the one you wrote directly above it? My NEED as the SELLER dictates the market conditions! Isn't that what you meant?
I am not budging until I get the price I NEED!
Huh? No, i'm saying sellers will need to get x amount for their house because that's what they owe on it.
Market conditions are determined by lot's of things. It has nothing to do with one side budging or not. Once the foreclosure/short sales get worked out, the buyers can throw out any number they want-and that number may indeed be what the house is actually worth in the market. Doesn't mean the sellers can sell it for that.
Hopefully I won't have to say this again but my opinion is not from the perspective of a buyer or seller. I am neither.
Huh? No, i'm saying sellers will need to get x amount for their house because that's what they owe on it.
Market conditions are determined by lot's of things. It has nothing to do with one side budging or not. Once the foreclosure/short sales get worked out, the buyers can throw out any number they want-and that number may indeed be what the house is actually worth in the market. Doesn't mean the sellers can sell it for that.
Hopefully I won't have to say this again but my opinion is not from the perspective of a buyer or seller. I am neither.
So then what are you? An agitator? Like we need more of those on LI!
oh, and if you need 2.2 mil for your house, list it at 2.2 mil. You will either sell it or you won't.
You're right!!! It's a free country and I can list it for whatever I want! Who knows, if I list it for $10M perhaps a naive prince from a foreign country will buy it. (I bet the prince in "Coming to America" would have paid that much. Too bad that was just a movie!)
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