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One can always level the old and build a new house, but they can't build new land.
Please answer me honestly -- do you really want to buy a house on LI?
Yes but with jobs leaving long island, young people leaving the island, baby boomers retiring and leaving long island....do you think that there will be a lack of land in the future? Especially in Suffolk, where a 2 hour commute to the city seems inconvenient.
I cant understand living here, unless of course you are motivated by family.
Yes but with jobs leaving long island, young people leaving the island, baby boomers retiring and leaving long island....do you think that there will be a lack of land in the future? Especially in Suffolk, where a 2 hour commute to the city seems inconvenient.
I cant understand living here, unless of course you are motivated by family.
If all these people are really leaving, the rest of us can meke it to the city in 45 minutes.
Yes but with jobs leaving long island, young people leaving the island, baby boomers retiring and leaving long island....do you think that there will be a lack of land in the future? Especially in Suffolk, where a 2 hour commute to the city seems inconvenient.
I cant understand living here, unless of course you are motivated by family.
There is enough people in Brooklyn and Queens who want to move to the island to supply the island.
There is enough people in Brooklyn and Queens who want to move to the island to supply the island.
Yes, that always used to be the case. But it seems like the new trend is to move out to the boroughs, at least for the younger kids. Property taxes are so high, as is the cost of commute. I think people are becoming tired with suburban lifestyles for such a high cost. Not sure though...only time will tell.
There is enough people in Brooklyn and Queens who want to move to the island to supply the island.
50 years ago, definitely... Whether it was white flight, the lure of affordable, beautiful, brand spanking new suburbs, or safety and schools for them to start a family - they came in droves. Now? Not so much.
I'm not a real estate expert, but to me, an item-- any item, including a house-- is worth what a person is willing to pay for it. So even though those homes have large glaring imperfections, they are still worth that price because a significant number of people are wiling to pay it.
This is true. And while there still may be a drop to come, it most certainly won't be that significant. Someone who bought a house for $500K at the height of the market isn't going to sell it now for $350K just because that's what it "should" be worth. Unless that person is entirely unable to afford the house, there is really no incentive to move and take that big of a hit. I expect there may be a slight drop off now that the tax credits have ended, but as much as some of us complain about Long Island, NYC will always offer jobs that draw people with families, and families will want to live in the outlying suburbs, and Long Island will always draw those families as a contending suburb. So don't expect to get a house that's listed today for $350K for $200K by waiting it out. That's just not gonna happen. If it WAS gonna happen, we would've seen a much bigger drop already.
This is true. And while there still may be a drop to come, it most certainly won't be that significant. Someone who bought a house for $500K at the height of the market isn't going to sell it now for $350K just because that's what it "should" be worth. Unless that person is entirely unable to afford the house, there is really no incentive to move and take that big of a hit. I expect there may be a slight drop off now that the tax credits have ended, but as much as some of us complain about Long Island, NYC will always offer jobs that draw people with families, and families will want to live in the outlying suburbs, and Long Island will always draw those families as a contending suburb. So don't expect to get a house that's listed today for $350K for $200K by waiting it out. That's just not gonna happen. If it WAS gonna happen, we would've seen a much bigger drop already.
This is correct - home prices drop another 10% at most and stay flat for a while (unless rates go through the roof).
50 years ago, definitely... Whether it was white flight, the lure of affordable, beautiful, brand spanking new suburbs, or safety and schools for them to start a family - they came in droves. Now? Not so much.
Thats not really true either Kid.
LI will always be NYCs bedroom and a playground for the Ultra Rich.
As long as the economies are intermingled LI will always remain a compelling buy.
Do you feel that the bubble hasn't burst?
We're seeing the subprime chickens come home to roost, however I doubt the bottom is going to fall out obscenely.
Those Levitts which sold for $4k new are still in the $300K range. My mom and dad bought theirs for $24K in late 69, sold it for $40K in early 74. What's that -- a 60% increase in 5 years? Why not go back to 75 and calculate a value based upon then? There was plenty of land to build upon, lots of new houses going up to compete with the existing inventory. We don't have that now. As buildable land becomes scarce, it will go up in price, provided it's not on a toxic dump.
Prices will correct, but only so much. I only hope I am correct in feeling that they won't return to 1990 prices.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fanofavatar1
This is correct - home prices drop another 10% at most and stay flat for a while (unless rates go through the roof).
To answer the coouple of posts about home prices falling in one breath:
Houses went you to 270% of their value vs. about 28% inflation from 1997-2009, thats unsustainable. Similar things happened during the 80's and we saw a big market crash then. Todays bubble was fueled by government involvement and subsequently the drop is being feathered by government involvement, all at the cost of the taxpayers.
The past year we've seen a rather significant ~20% drop off home prices (remember, home prices need about a total ~40% drop for it to return to inflationary pricing), but that 20% drop has been to the backdrop of stalled foreclosures, 8,000 homebuyer credits, remortgages, and the fed keeping interest artifically low so that ARMs don't adjust. An increase of just 2% in ARMs would relate to estimated thousands of home owners not being able to afford living anymore. We also have a significant shadow inventory on the market, homes that are in foreclosure that aren't coming on the market, but soon will need to be because of constant care/taxes make it an unwieldy item for a bank to hold onto much longer.
As you can see, lots of stuff are stacked to try and maintain home prices. Why? I don't know, especially with the idiots in charge in this current and the previous 2 administrations wanted more americans in a home. Cheaper homes are a lot more affordable the low interest rates and 270% inflated ones. So whats in it for the future. Well as soon as the fed increases rates we're going to see more of a lending glut as interest rises (less demand) and an increase in forclosures (more supply). The 8k credit is gone, so percieved affordability is dropping. Shadow inventory from banks are starting to increase on the market (more supply) further dropping homes. Taxes and assements on LI are still high, so we're also looking at that third demension of home buying on LI.
Basic jist of the story: we haven't even started to see the downfall of real estate.
To answer the coouple of posts about home prices falling in one breath:
Houses went you to 270% of their value vs. about 28% inflation from 1997-2009, thats unsustainable. Similar things happened during the 80's and we saw a big market crash then. Todays bubble was fueled by government involvement and subsequently the drop is being feathered by government involvement, all at the cost of the taxpayers.
The past year we've seen a rather significant ~20% drop off home prices (remember, home prices need about a total ~40% drop for it to return to inflationary pricing), but that 20% drop has been to the backdrop of stalled foreclosures, 8,000 homebuyer credits, remortgages, and the fed keeping interest artifically low so that ARMs don't adjust. An increase of just 2% in ARMs would relate to estimated thousands of home owners not being able to afford living anymore. We also have a significant shadow inventory on the market, homes that are in foreclosure that aren't coming on the market, but soon will need to be because of constant care/taxes make it an unwieldy item for a bank to hold onto much longer.
As you can see, lots of stuff are stacked to try and maintain home prices. Why? I don't know, especially with the idiots in charge in this current and the previous 2 administrations wanted more americans in a home. Cheaper homes are a lot more affordable the low interest rates and 270% inflated ones. So whats in it for the future. Well as soon as the fed increases rates we're going to see more of a lending glut as interest rises (less demand) and an increase in forclosures (more supply). The 8k credit is gone, so percieved affordability is dropping. Shadow inventory from banks are starting to increase on the market (more supply) further dropping homes. Taxes and assements on LI are still high, so we're also looking at that third demension of home buying on LI.
Basic jist of the story: we haven't even started to see the downfall of real estate.
Whatever you need to tell yourself.Sounds like wishful thinking to me.
(Anyone remember bubble boy?)
Welcome to the bottom. Its a shame your fear is keeping you on the sidelines.
Are you actively looking to relocate?
Crooks
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