LA Homicides: 1970 to 2009..It's Getting Better All The Time. (Los Angeles: tax, vs.)

[SalParadise]

Originally Posted by John23

That's true, but there are still a lot of people. Don't immigrants tend to have a higher birth rate than those born here? And look how crowded LA has gotten.

That homicide list is striking. It looks like a different city....i.e. dangerous south central LA 20 years ago. And now it's portland or a smaller coastal city or something.

.

Yes, immigrants do have higher birth rates. Yet, crime has fallen in LA?

One explanation from Ron Unz (former Republican candidate for Gov. in 1994) is that immigrants bring family values and a DECREASE crime rates. See link to article below.

The American Conservative -- His-Panic

[SalParadise]

Originally Posted by majoun

One factor only hinted at so far: fewer young males in their crime prone years in L.A. now as opposed to 20, 30, or 40 years ago. The upside of L.A. not being an attractive place for families is that there are fewer teenage males. L.A. is aging as is the USA.

Seems plausible but when I look at the 1990 Census compared to the 2010 Census, I don't see a huge difference:

1990, Percent of Pop. age 15 to 24: 15.02%
2010, Percent of Pop. age 15 to 24: 14.06%

Granted the above does not break it down by gender.

[DynamoLA]

The whole "everything is going to hell in a hand basket" crowd hates threads like this because it is so difficult to spin this good news into bad news.

Let me take a shot:

Our society has become so lazy and entitled even the criminals don't try hard any more.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by SalParadise

Yes, immigrants do have higher birth rates. Yet, crime has fallen in LA?

One explanation from Ron Unz (former Republican candidate for Gov. in 1994) is that immigrants bring family values and a DECREASE crime rates. See link to article below.

The American Conservative -- His-Panic

I agree with Unz.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by John23

That's true, but there are still a lot of people. Don't immigrants tend to have a higher birth rate than those born here? And look how crowded LA has gotten.

Crowded with adults. Many of whom, if they do have kids, leave the city of L.A. because of LAUSD - and not just the affluent ones.

The LAUSD predictions of how many kids L.A. would have by now which they based their school construction plans on turned out to be much higher than the actual increase. Of course, the higher estimates meant more money that could have been pocketed and more construction projects the contracts for which were awarded to cronies.

It's too bad some elements of LA haven't gotten better (i.e. santa monica homeless still a problem).

Less of a problem, but alas it's because of the SMPD pushing the homeless to Venice (where the problem's as bad as ever) and also to the rest of the westside (about time for certain westside areas....)

[majoun]

Originally Posted by SalParadise

Seems plausible but when I look at the 1990 Census compared to the 2010 Census, I don't see a huge difference:

1990, Percent of Pop. age 15 to 24: 15.02%
2010, Percent of Pop. age 15 to 24: 14.06%

Granted the above does not break it down by gender.

Even a one percent decrease is still significant.

[John23]

Originally Posted by SalParadise

Yes, immigrants do have higher birth rates. Yet, crime has fallen in LA?

One explanation from Ron Unz (former Republican candidate for Gov. in 1994) is that immigrants bring family values and a DECREASE crime rates. See link to article below.

The American Conservative -- His-Panic

Just in terms of being a crowded city, you'd think crime would be higher. Whether its immigrants or natives. Look how crowded the freeways have gotten.

You'd think crowded + competition for scarce resources (jobs, income, housing) would lead to some kind of friction...and it would spill over into crime.

[SalParadise]

Originally Posted by majoun

Even a one percent decrease is still significant.

Sounds statistically insignificant to me.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by John23

You'd think crowded + competition for scarce resources (jobs, income, housing) would lead to some kind of friction

It has -but between men and women more than between races and ethnicities, given how women have become dominant in society and grabbed up those resources. This is a new development. It doesn't translate into crime. In the future it may translate into a violent sexist backlash but whether it does or not remains to be seen.

[SalParadise]

Majoun: Are you male or female?