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Old 11-06-2016, 02:32 AM
 
Location: LA, California
93 posts, read 76,723 times
Reputation: 117

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All the people talking about gentrification being unstoppable and happening in the 2030s and 2040s remind me of the people staying no one will ever move back to the cities and they will just stay crime infested hell holes back in the 80s
This gentrification thing is a bubble that only happened because of the recession
Of course cities were becoming better since the 90s but we hadn't seen such widespread gentrification, only in New York and SF
The largest group of millenials, those born in 1990, just turned 26 this year they will move to the suburbs they grew up in once they have children, no one with means is gonna be raising their kids in a "Up and Coming" neighborhood
Once the hipster yuppie millenial crowd leaves for the suburbs, along with all this new housing stock the city has, I expect it to become cheap once again
Cities are a cycle
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Old 11-06-2016, 07:22 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles (Native)
25,304 posts, read 17,620,868 times
Reputation: 12221
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThaBigHomieGucci View Post
All the people talking about gentrification being unstoppable and happening in the 2030s and 2040s remind me of the people staying no one will ever move back to the cities and they will just stay crime infested hell holes back in the 80s
This gentrification thing is a bubble that only happened because of the recession
Of course cities were becoming better since the 90s but we hadn't seen such widespread gentrification, only in New York and SF
The largest group of millenials, those born in 1990, just turned 26 this year they will move to the suburbs they grew up in once they have children, no one with means is gonna be raising their kids in a "Up and Coming" neighborhood
Once the hipster yuppie millenial crowd leaves for the suburbs, along with all this new housing stock the city has, I expect it to become cheap once again
Cities are a cycle
It will probably be a mix . Some older people enjoy living in cities too .
Look at NYC , a lot of older citizens there.

If they are really hipsters it is probably hard for them to leave to the suburbs , but I could see them moving to a rural area maybe . Farms are more hip than the suburbs . The whole local grown trend / movement

This is a possibility if you run an online business for example where physical location doesn't matter .

Even if the hipsters have kids and move , then a new young generation will be around to move in .

Many people are getting married a lot later or having kids later too so this affects things as well .
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Old 11-06-2016, 07:26 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles (Native)
25,304 posts, read 17,620,868 times
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This is an interesting article I read recently

Influx of Younger, Wealthier Residents Transforms U.S. Cities - WSJ

Explains why these trends are happening .
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Old 11-06-2016, 09:06 AM
 
Location: Encino, CA
3,648 posts, read 3,750,885 times
Reputation: 6369
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Coe View Post
What's Parts of LA will be gentrified in the next decade? (Inglewood: homes, live)
I am putty my money (literally) on the West Adams / Arlington Heights neighborhood. Its a pretty bad area now, but I have always loved all the beautiful Victorian homes in the area. Its great because many of the homes are historic and cannot be torn down. Beautiful, beautiful homes. Horrible, horrible crime in the area.

I really think this will change in the next decade or two.

A Resident Expert's Guide to West Adams, Los Angeles's Neighborhood of the Year - Curbed LA
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Old 11-06-2016, 09:21 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles (Native)
25,304 posts, read 17,620,868 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kings Gambit View Post
I am putty my money (literally) on the West Adams / Arlington Heights neighborhood. Its a pretty bad area now, but I have always loved all the beautiful Victorian homes in the area. Its great because many of the homes are historic and cannot be torn down. Beautiful, beautiful homes. Horrible, horrible crime in the area.

I really think this will change in the next decade or two.

A Resident Expert's Guide to West Adams, Los Angeles's Neighborhood of the Year - Curbed LA
What price points are you seeing properties for now ? Is there any opportunity to cash flow in the meantime ?

Victorian homes are beautiful
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Old 11-06-2016, 11:33 AM
 
Location: Encino, CA
3,648 posts, read 3,750,885 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jm1982 View Post
What price points are you seeing properties for now ? Is there any opportunity to cash flow in the meantime ?

Victorian homes are beautiful
Have my realtor keeping an eye out for distressed properties in the area. Those in danger of going into foreclosure so we can make good money offers. Many of those homes on the market are going for $800k to $1mm. But there are bargains to be had if you are lucky.

The asking prices for such a dangerous neighborhood is crazy. Look at this: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angele...8/home/6907243
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Old 11-06-2016, 11:40 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles (Native)
25,304 posts, read 17,620,868 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kings Gambit View Post
Have my realtor keeping an eye out for distressed properties in the area. Those in danger of going into foreclosure so we can make good money offers. Many of those homes on the market are going for $800k to $1mm. But there are bargains to be had if you are lucky.

The asking prices for such a dangerous neighborhood is crazy. Look at this: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angele...8/home/6907243
Yeah you are right about that, prices are high when you consider crime rates.

I imagine it is an area where a lot of people have owned for a while so even taking less than market for example would still result in a big net payday for the seller.
The one in the link was bought for $260k in 1995.

They'll also be able to exclude $500k in capital gains taxes if they are a Married couple or $250k if an individual.
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Old 11-06-2016, 12:45 PM
 
Location: LA, California
93 posts, read 76,723 times
Reputation: 117
Quote:
Originally Posted by jm1982 View Post
It will probably be a mix . Some older people enjoy living in cities too .
Look at NYC , a lot of older citizens there.

If they are really hipsters it is probably hard for them to leave to the suburbs , but I could see them moving to a rural area maybe . Farms are more hip than the suburbs . The whole local grown trend / movement

This is a possibility if you run an online business for example where physical location doesn't matter .

Even if the hipsters have kids and move , then a new young generation will be around to move in .

Many people are getting married a lot later or having kids later too so this affects things as well .
The difference between places like LA and NYC is that LA and the whole region is probably 10 times as large and NYC, also unlike NYC large swaths of the city are actually dangerous, everything in LA is sprawled out even the ghettos, also truth is LA is less desirable than NY
Millenials are already moving to the suburbs, there's tons of articles about this, you can do a quick google search and you can read hundreds of articles about this
Also the generation after the millenials, those born after 2000 is much smaller and really has no incentive to move into the cities that have now become increasingly expensive, the millenials moved into the city because of the cheap prices after the recession, but now the city has become expensive, so what economic force would drive large groups of people to move in?
Envisioning the LA of the 2040s based on current trends is foolish at best, again this is a very dynamic and very large city, but I expect it to be a lot more dense and due to this increasinging density a lot more cheap
Demographic wise it's almost impossible to accurately measure demographic change from 15 years from now let alone 30
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Old 11-06-2016, 01:09 PM
 
Location: LA, California
93 posts, read 76,723 times
Reputation: 117
Quote:
Originally Posted by 909er View Post
The black areas have much more potential than East L.A.

Does anyone here even know anything about East L.A.?

I spent some time there with some previous family. The Latino population there is Die Hard, and goes back generations. There are stories on EastsiderLA about the Latinos fighting gentrification in Boyle Heights because they are PISSED the white people are moving in.

East LA isnt just an area, it's a culture and a city-state. We aren't talking about normal areas here, and this isn't the 'it's different' argument. I'd bet the farm there is no way, ever, whites or hipsters gentrify East L.A.
Not true at all, the neighborhood being most gentrified right now is Boyle Heights, all of the gentrified neighborhoods in LA were once Latino (Silver Lake, Echo Park, Northeast LA, North Hollywood)
The Latino neighborhoods are the ones that actually will be gentrified, because gentrification in LA is mostly about neighborhoods that surround downtown, East LA is way closer to the Westside and Downtown than Carson, Compton or North Long Beach
Inglewood being actually gentrified like Silver Lake is unlikely, for reasons such as the noise level, increasing crime, It being perceived as a bad neighborhood, and the fact that it's not even LA, it's a separate city, its more likely that the area around the stadium will be like a gated community surrounded by ghettos
Personally I think that diversifying these old Chicano neighborhoods is one of the few positives about gentrificaton in this city, the most racist people in this city are those "Viva La Raza" Chicano people who literally firebombed black people out of their homes and had basically a ethnic cleansing campaign back in the late 90s/early 2000s in some neighborhoods, now black people can move into Silver Lake Northeast LA or Boyle Heights with all the other races and they can't do anything about it
Now I have no problem with Hispanics, just those Cholo Racist Homeboy types who are being kicked out to El Monte or Riverside or Texas (or deported)
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Old 11-06-2016, 02:16 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles (Native)
25,304 posts, read 17,620,868 times
Reputation: 12221
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThaBigHomieGucci View Post
The difference between places like LA and NYC is that LA and the whole region is probably 10 times as large and NYC, also unlike NYC large swaths of the city are actually dangerous, everything in LA is sprawled out even the ghettos, also truth is LA is less desirable than NY
Millenials are already moving to the suburbs, there's tons of articles about this, you can do a quick google search and you can read hundreds of articles about this
Also the generation after the millenials, those born after 2000 is much smaller and really has no incentive to move into the cities that have now become increasingly expensive, the millenials moved into the city because of the cheap prices after the recession, but now the city has become expensive, so what economic force would drive large groups of people to move in?
Envisioning the LA of the 2040s based on current trends is foolish at best, again this is a very dynamic and very large city, but I expect it to be a lot more dense and due to this increasinging density a lot more cheap
Demographic wise it's almost impossible to accurately measure demographic change from 15 years from now let alone 30
All millenials don't behave the same way it's such a huge group some millennials have kids and others don't .
Millennials moved to LA because it was cheap ? When ? Rents were still going up during the recession and prices to buy weren't that cheap either but they were cheaper than now .

LA will become cheaper as it gets more dense? New York had gotten more expensive as it's gotten more dense why would LA be cheaper ?

What will change about la that it won't be attractive to people as it is today ?

Last edited by jm1982; 11-06-2016 at 02:25 PM..
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