Opinion: How I caused California’s housing crisis (Los Angeles: live, transportation)

[Exitus Acta Probat]

Originally Posted by Chicano3000X

Because we artificially limited supply..

Expound.

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

Originally Posted by expatCA

Can't build fast enough to keep up with growth and cost of building (That is physics). Prices will not drop at all. Wishful thinking. That is reality.

You keep saying that, but just imagine how much higher prices would be if there was no building. That $3k/month one bedroom in Manhattan would be more like $12k/month if they had LA's density just as an example. So keeping prices from going to the stratosphere is still better than doing nothing

[..5..]

The elephant in the room is are the illegal aliens, dreamers and anchors.
Since 86 the state has turned a blind eye to this unexpected, uninvited 20% of the population. Since the children are eligible for all sorts of social services they have large families without thought of where these children will live when they are adults.

Remove that factor and there is no housing problem.

[Veritas Vincit]

It's not only immigration, but it plays a significant role. California has lost far more people to other states over the last 20 years than it has seen people from other states move in. Without immigration from outside the U.S. i.e. primarily Latin America and Asia, California's population would have shrunk considerably since the late 80s/early 90s recession.



But it's a bit more complex than just that. California still attracts significant inflow from the East Coast and Upper Midwest. However, these no longer are lower to middle class young couples and families trying to take advantage of the growth in the West. It was those types of domestic migrants who filled up the Los Angeles basin from the 1920s onward. Nowadays, California drains people in those situations to Arizona, Nevada, Texas and Oregon. The inflow today comes from the very wealthy with at least six figure incomes. Those people tend to move to the desirable areas, which drives up prices more and more in those particular parts.



At the same time, immigrants - illegal and legal - from impoverished countries have continued to flow into the area. This creates pressure at the lower ends of the housing market. And of course developers are not particularly interested in serving this part of the market. This is where you have seen and continue to see the classic American process of 'neighborhood takeover', which goes back all the way to the East Coast cities in the 19th century. A process that has turned one neighborhood after another in California into an ethnic immigrant stronghold.



This created a squeeze for lower-class and then as it progressed increasingly middle-class Americans as public services suffered, schools got worse and often enough crime increased. Now if you look at housing patterns in the Midwest and Northeast, you notice how the middle class tends to try to 'outrun' this process. Previously fairly empty farming counties turned into suburbs, distances of 30-40 miles from the core city's limits became normal for suburbs etc.. The problem in L.A. is that (1) nature limits this movement as the area that can be pleasantly inhabited in Southern California is limited by mountains and desert and (2) this process has gone on long enough that these areas have almost fully 'matured' at this point. As a result the middle class runs into a wall of wealth toward the coast and the options inland are increasingly distant and desolate to the point where no sensible person would attempt the commute.



The solution IMO is in the massive stretch of land between downtown and the port of L.A. That's over 300 sq miles of real estate (close to DTLA and other centers of employment, close to amenities) which is mostly in need of revitalization. Much of that territory was once middle-class and suburban, but much of it has since deteriorated and is seen as off-limits. A lot of people would rather leave the state than live in many of those neighborhoods the way they are. But that space is there, it's a purely political issue of whether that space can be used sensibly. Given the political dynamic of the area..I am not counting on it.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by ..5..

The elephant in the room is are the illegal aliens, dreamers and anchors.
Since 86 the state has turned a blind eye to this unexpected, uninvited 20% of the population. Since the children are eligible for all sorts of social services they have large families without thought of where these children will live when they are adults.

Remove that factor and there is no housing problem.

I doubt it. Those born in 1986 or after would be under the age of 32 now, and I know of very few people in that age range who can afford the median price of a home in southern California at $520 K.

Southern California's median home price hits a record $520,000 despite rising mortgage rates

[Exitus Acta Probat]

This is an excellent documentary for all you people who think we need to jam more people into California and keep building upwards.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsvSIScf1Ww&t=684s

[Chicano3000X]

Originally Posted by Exitus Acta Probat

This is an excellent documentary for all you people who think we need to jam more people into California and keep building upwards.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsvSIScf1Ww&t=684s

Seems more like nostalgia for an L.A. that will we will never see again.

Maybe L.A. should have never been so great. Then no one would come.

Maybe if you made it like Norilsk Russia, then nobody would come.



Or just learn that cities grow and you need to build to adapt. Just doing nothing. Everything that vid complains about will just get worse.

In fact, the irony is that all the stuff it complains about happens because of them wanting to keep everything the same.

[Chicano3000X]

Originally Posted by Exitus Acta Probat

Expound.

Voting for policies that cause development to stagnate. Therefor raising prices.

[Exitus Acta Probat]

The 405 is jammed up even around 11 AM these days. Cramming more people into the Los Angeles area will make traffic worse. Why do we keep discussing this ad infinitum?

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by Exitus Acta Probat

The 405 is jammed up even around 11 AM these days. Cramming more people into the Los Angeles area will make traffic worse. Why do we keep discussing this ad infinitum?

People can't face reality so keep trying to find a way to force more and cheaper housing and ....... they can't. The CA "Golden age" is over.