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Old 04-09-2020, 07:55 AM
 
Location: Business ethics is an oxymoron.
2,118 posts, read 2,506,632 times
Reputation: 4711

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Quote:
Originally Posted by SandyCo View Post
Flattening the curve by definition means that social distancing measures stay in place for a long time. To flatten it for only a little while just means that a huge number of cases will occur later in the year, and we'll still have the same problems we would have had if we didn't social distance when we did.

In the beginning, the number of infected people was doubling every three or four days. Now L.A. County has 7,559 known cases and the doubling rate has slowed down to every six days. This may not sound like a big difference, but when you're talking about exponential growth every added day is a bonus.

If we lift the social distancing rules and life gets back to "normal", the numbers will shoot up again in no time, and we'll be looking at a large number of cases within two or three weeks. The idea is to keep a lid on the virus's ability to spread from person to person until a vaccine or treatment is found (and that means lots of clinical trials and testing, which takes a year or more).

There has to be some kind of compromise found which lets the number increase gradually, but I'm pretty sure that any events with large numbers (think stadium sports or concerts) won't come back until we have a vaccine. Also, routine testing needs to be available so local and state governments know when they have to clamp down again. This will be with us for a while; we need to get used to it.
In a way, you kind of contradicted your own words. Seem that you, like everyone else, wants to have it both ways. And I'm of the opinion that under the circumstances, there is absolutely no middle ground or room for compromise at all. None. It has to be an absolutely binary, either/or approach with zero shades of nuance, carve-outs, or exceptions.

So far, we're taking the less painful but much longer and arguably more expensive approach.

Or, we can take a very bitter pill, albeit one time, and literally shut the world down cold for two weeks. No one is allowed out of their house. Not for food (they can stock up ahead), for any travel of any kind, for a cardiac, not for anything. An absolute freeze frame and shut down that would guarantee once and for all, that this would be solved and put behind us.

It would be a horrific two weeks for most, no doubt. But that's all it would be. Two weeks. One time. Then we can right back to normal.

Or, we can continue with this only slightly less frightening, though equally anxious period of walking-on-eggshells, with no end in sight approach for how long? A month? A year? A decade? Forever?

You're telling me that would be better.

And how is a one time stimulus payment going to be of any value except maybe buying a little time. After it runs out, we end up right back to square one. THEN what? Another round? And another? And another?

We need to rip the Band Aid. Shut the world down. And restart.

THAT'S how we get over this. Not this incremental, piecemeal approach.

It's time to get PROactive.

REACTIVE has been a spectacular failure.
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Old 04-09-2020, 09:52 AM
 
1,162 posts, read 260,734 times
Reputation: 2118
Agree with you, Sandy.



Flattening the curve was about spreading out the need for resources - not reducing the overall infection and death rate. The fact that it seems to have reduced both is a bonus. The reason it reduced both is because - by locking down - quite a few of the asymptomatic carriers are over it now - past their two or three weeks - and so may be immune, and are also not spreading it when they do make runs to the store or essential work or whatever - so the spread goes down. Spread goes down = death goes down.
I think the two-week shutdown is plan that would work - but cannot be done. Why? Think practically:
In that two weeks, 100,000 people (USA) are going to die of all manner of causes. Heart attack. Stroke. Bee sting.
Those 100,000 people are going to call 100,000 ambulances. Using a cell phone network that is kept up by real people. Charged with electricity delivered from a power plant with actual employees. And so on. There are thousands and thousands - maybe millions - of people who would STILL go "out" no matter what - unless your two-week shutdown includes no lights, no water, no sewer, no produce (in week two), no heat, no A/C, and so on. And one more: No cops.
Yep - no law enforcement in your scenario - I'm sure the meth-heads of the universe will sit tight for two weeks.
So - I think your theory is correct. But implementation is a little problematic.
PS - I disagree that it's a spectacular failure. That would be Italy. We're not going to be them. And it's because of the sacrifices we all are making.
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:09 AM
 
Location: Sylmar, a part of Los Angeles
4,950 posts, read 3,115,531 times
Reputation: 10682
We are in the 5th week of the shutdown. Garcetti has shut down parks enforced by park rangers and LAPD. He is determined to keep this misery going for as long as possible.
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:23 AM
 
Location: State of Transition
84,417 posts, read 77,596,360 times
Reputation: 85555
Quote:
Originally Posted by V8 Vega View Post
I just saw on TV LA County has 5,940 cases, so that means every other person has coronavirus. So the media is lying through their teeth, pushing this as hard as they can all day and night everyday, nothing but.
I can't believe someone made this statement, and believes it. People seem to be cracking under the stress of the sequester. Look at what you just posted. If you have to, look up the population of LA County. Get back to us.

I've seen a number of panicky, irrational posts here today, relating to "the situation". It's worrisome. If this drags on much longer, a percentage of the population may well develop mental health issues. Someone on another thread last week suggested, in fact, that mental health care should be made available to people as the situation drags on. Not sure how that would work; therapists who qualify for Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement (insurance has its criteria, and doesn't pay for just any counselor) should perhaps be mobilized. IDK.

V8, go outside and take a nice walk to clear your head and destress. We all need to get out in the sun daily, to boost Vitamin D levels to strengthen our immune systems, anyway, and the exercise and fresh air can do a world of good. I've been taking a daily walk as a sort of tonic, and it's great.

Peace be with you. Stay well. Stress hormones drag down the immune system, so make efforts to avoid catastrophizing.
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:27 AM
 
8,739 posts, read 5,313,638 times
Reputation: 23023
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth View Post
I can't believe someone made this statement, and believes it. People seem to be cracking under the stress of the sequester. Look at what you just posted. If you have to, look up the population of LA County. Get back to us.
You're the one who needs to look at it again. Read the whole quote carefully. He was being sarcastic.

And the walk in the sun sounds great, if it would ever stop raining.
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:43 AM
 
Location: On the water.
16,273 posts, read 9,202,044 times
Reputation: 13434
Quote:
Originally Posted by saibot View Post
You're the one who needs to look at it again. Read the whole quote carefully. He was being sarcastic.
Actually saibot, no, don’t believe Vega was being sarcastic ... believe he was fumbling stats and figures as he commonly does carelessly ...emphasis on care-less.

Maybe YOU should read more of his posts. Maybe you missed this example I left for you to catch a few days back:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tulemutt View Post
Yo saibot ... thought you might be interested in defending this post of Vega’s from the day before

Quote:
Originally Posted by V8 Vega View Post
5,114 have died from Coronavirus, 60 million died of the Swine flu under Obama. The media loved Obama, hate Trump, that's why the all day and night emphasis with nothing else. The media have driven this frenzy.


Think that was sarcasm too? After a few posters called him on it (the death toll from swine flu was just under 12,500) he hasn’t been back to inform us it was sarcasm anyway ... but he has followed with today’s flub.
... and there are numerous more.

If Vega is somehow fooling so many with wry sarcasm (which he has never seemed capable of delivering over years of postings) ... how about HE comes back to defend and explain? But he never has.
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:48 AM
 
Location: State of Transition
84,417 posts, read 77,596,360 times
Reputation: 85555
Quote:
Originally Posted by saibot View Post
You're the one who needs to look at it again. Read the whole quote carefully. He was being sarcastic.
You don't know V8, apparently. But this time, I'm genuinely worried. It didn't sound like his usual ranting/trolling.
Quote:
Originally Posted by saibot;
And the walk in the sun sounds great, if it would ever stop raining.
Praise your Deity-Of-Choice, and kiss the ground for Mother Nature! Rain is a great blessing I thought Californians would never curse again! Get out in it, wallow in it! You never know when might be your last chance!

April showers bring May flowers. And an improved water table.
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Old 04-09-2020, 11:02 AM
 
8,739 posts, read 5,313,638 times
Reputation: 23023
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth View Post
Praise your Deity-Of-Choice, and kiss the ground for Mother Nature! Rain is a great blessing I thought Californians would never curse again! Get out in it, wallow in it! You never know when might be your last chance!

April showers bring May flowers. And an improved water table.
Rain is great, I'm always happy to have plenty of rain, but it's a bit too much when someone says, "Your problem is you're not getting your daily walks in the sunshine."
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Old 04-09-2020, 11:17 AM
 
Location: Corona del Mar & Coronado, CA
2,109 posts, read 1,410,753 times
Reputation: 2718
Quote:
Originally Posted by quixotic59 View Post
Listen genius, the MEDIA is not pushing anything. The entire WORLD is suffering as a result of the VERY REAL virus. People are dying on a daily basis, here and in other countries. Doctors and nurses are fighting to save lives and screaming for help. Stop listening to the imbecile-in-chief and Fox imbeciles and see the reality. We don't know exactly who does and does not have this virus because the imbecile-in-chief did not do his job and make sure there were enough tests. Other leaders did a much better job taking care of their people and the results are showing.
The media is most definitely contributing to the panic aspect with the Jerry Lewis Telethon style tote boards on their networks. I can almost hear Ed McMahon saying "drum roll" as they update the numbers.

The comparisons to flu season are not because the diseases are the same epidemiologicaly, but that if the flu season numbers were updated in the same way every day and talking heads on TV interviewed "experts" ad nauseam all day about how to protect ourselves, etc, people would react differently to flu season.

The CDC estimates that there have been up to 55,000,000 Americans infected this flu season. That is 1 of 7 Americans or so. Currently there are 430,000 known Covid 19 cases, or 1 in 700. Deaths from flu are up to 63,000 vs 15,000 from C-19. Yes, Covid is deadlier, but it isn't absolute.

I think the news media, left and right is thrilled by crises because they drive up viewing numbers. More restraint and balance would be welcome and responsible, but I'm not holding my breath.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NewbieHere View Post
I saw on TV one LA farmers market is still very packed with people. Why don’t the shut down the farmers market.
Because technically it is a food store. PS to others, I think the means The Original Farmers Market at 3rd & Fairfax, not all farmers markets.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SandyCo View Post
In the beginning, the number of infected people was doubling every three or four days. Now L.A. County has 7,559 known cases and the doubling rate has slowed down to every six days. This may not sound like a big difference, but when you're talking about exponential growth every added day is a bonus.
I think the numbers and how they were grouped was also based largely on the availability of tests. We may never know if it was the Chicken or the Egg.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Des-Lab View Post
Or, we can take a very bitter pill, albeit one time, and literally shut the world down cold for two weeks. No one is allowed out of their house. Not for food (they can stock up ahead), for any travel of any kind, for a cardiac, not for anything. An absolute freeze frame and shut down that would guarantee once and for all, that this would be solved and put behind us.
So we can kill thousands of people, maybe tens of thousands of people, suspend every semblance of people's civil rights for a solution that MIGHT work because it is based on the erroneous assumption that the virus only has a 14 day incubation period. Brill.
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Old 04-09-2020, 11:28 AM
 
Location: On the water.
16,273 posts, read 9,202,044 times
Reputation: 13434
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimTheEnchanter View Post
The media is most definitely contributing to the panic aspect with the Jerry Lewis Telethon style tote boards on their networks. I can almost hear Ed McMahon saying "drum roll" as they update the numbers.

The comparisons to flu season are not because the diseases are the same epidemiologicaly, but that if the flu season numbers were updated in the same way every day and talking heads on TV interviewed "experts" ad nauseam all day about how to protect ourselves, etc, people would react differently to flu season.

The CDC estimates that there have been up to 55,000,000 Americans infected this flu season. That is 1 of 7 Americans or so. Currently there are 430,000 known Covid 19 cases, or 1 in 700. Deaths from flu are up to 63,000 vs 15,000 from C-19. Yes, Covid is deadlier, but it isn't absolute.

I think the news media, left and right is thrilled by crises because they drive up viewing numbers. More restraint and balance would be welcome and responsible, but I'm not holding my breath.
...
Yes, the news media is doing what it does: news ... and in this day and age: news 24/7. Flies hover and eat sh*t. Hummingbirds ceaselessly hummm. Water tirelessly seeks its own level. Trump lies incessantly. The sky is blue during sunny days. Rain is wet. Etc. and the news does news. Big deal. Watch it / read it selectively when you need information ... then go about your business.

That all said, you like a number of others seem to want to equate Covid19 with the flu, at least in terms of impact. The issue here is that Covid19 is ON TOP of what our health system and daily lives are geared up for. It represents ADDITIONAL burden of clearly impressive negative impact - with true potential yet unknown ... and treatment / prevention vaccines undeveloped.

Get it? That’s a big deal.

All said: people need to get a grip, yes. Perspective is a survival tool when properly applied.
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