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Old 05-17-2020, 04:58 AM
 
Location: The edge of the world and all of Western civilization
984 posts, read 1,184,717 times
Reputation: 1691

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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnG72 View Post
Proportionally, LA County has way more Covid 19 related cases and deaths. Please please please don’t bring up population as to why we have more cases and deaths. Per capita, we have disproportionally more than the other CA counties and I haven’t been able to understand why.
If that's a good indicator as to why cases are higher, then why "please please please" not bring it up? Are you that adverse to math and logic? Do you not get differences between actual numbers and rates? Do you not see that in something like this, you introduce more variables that make data more slippery?

LA County has a high proportion of Greater LA's population, and it's also about twice the size in population as the next most populous county in the entire United States (Cook County, Illinois is next), and more than three times the size as the next most populous California county (San Diego). Compare that to the six counties in Greater LA versus the one in Greater San Diego, or the nine in the Bay Area.

How are you qualifying "disproportionately" though? (Note: I fixed the spelling for you). Tulare County is the 18th most populous in California, but at the time of writing this they're reporting the second highest rate in the state. For a county that small, THAT seems disproportionate to me. It may have something to do with the relative concentration of towns to each other in that county, as well as exchange among them. Per the previous paragraph, consider the exchanges solely within LA County in contrast to those in Northern California where counties are smaller in area and involve more frequent county line crossings (such as San Mateo, Marin, or Alameda Counties into San Francisco). You're focused on a discrete county basis, so metro areas around San Francisco/San Jose and Sacramento would, by your definition, look "better" when focused on single counties.

If it makes you feel better, I just saw an article today that stated a whopping 92% of confirmed deaths in LA County involved people with underlying health conditions. (I did the work for you, see below). If there's one thing this pandemic has highlighted, even among skilled professionals including infectious disease experts, is an inability to look at the broader picture.



https://ktla.com/news/local-news/num...limbs-to-1793/

 
Old 05-17-2020, 07:59 AM
 
Location: So Ca
26,580 posts, read 26,455,782 times
Reputation: 24525
Quote:
Originally Posted by dvxhd View Post
I just saw an article today that stated a whopping 92% of confirmed deaths in LA County involved people with underlying health conditions.
That could definitely be a factor. Also, if you look at Census figures, L.A. County is comprised of many more residents who fall into lower socioeconomic categories. (For the same reason that Orange County has fewer confirmed cases and a lower death rate.)

I don't agree with the other suggestion--not yours--that pollution is a major factor, since Riverside and San Bernardino Counties have worse air quality and their COVID-19 death rates are not as high as ours.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...inorities.html
 
Old 05-17-2020, 08:40 AM
 
Location: Sherman Oaks, CA
6,588 posts, read 17,492,515 times
Reputation: 9462
Does every county in California have an equal ability to test? Because L.A. County has so many tests now that they're offering a test to anyone who wants one. The more people you test, the more positive results you'll get. Why so many deaths? Well, it's a large county, over 10 million people. L.A. County has roughly the same population as the entire state of Michigan. Also, 183 nursing homes in our county have at least one case.

Another reason? Some people are refusing to social distance and wear face masks. There was a lot of cruising up and down a major boulevard in my neighborhood last night. Some classic cars were parked at a nearby gas station, and the guys standing around weren't socially distancing and only one guy was wearing a mask - around his neck. If you go into Van Nuys, people are selling things on street corners, etc. (which may be why Van Nuys has 529 cases now and Sherman Oaks only has 197).
 
Old 05-17-2020, 09:04 AM
 
Location: So Ca
26,580 posts, read 26,455,782 times
Reputation: 24525
Quote:
Originally Posted by SandyCo View Post
The more people you test, the more positive results you'll get. Why so many deaths? Well, it's a large county, over 10 million people. L.A. County has roughly the same population as the entire state of Michigan.
L.A. County has a rate of 17.8 deaths from COVID-19 per 100,000 residents. (As opposed to say, Ventura County, with 2.9).
 
Old 05-17-2020, 10:05 AM
 
Location: all over the place (figuratively)
6,602 posts, read 4,813,255 times
Reputation: 3591
An explicit factor, going back to the Van Nuys observation, is men don't like to wear face masks. The men of San Francisco are, let's be honest, not as typically male.
 
Old 05-17-2020, 12:01 PM
 
4,536 posts, read 10,580,183 times
Reputation: 4068
Quote:
Originally Posted by dvxhd View Post
If that's a good indicator as to why cases are higher, then why "please please please" not bring it up? Are you that adverse to math and logic? Do you not get differences between actual numbers and rates? Do you not see that in something like this, you introduce more variables that make data more slippery?

LA County has a high proportion of Greater LA's population, and it's also about twice the size in population as the next most populous county in the entire United States (Cook County, Illinois is next), and more than three times the size as the next most populous California county (San Diego). Compare that to the six counties in Greater LA versus the one in Greater San Diego, or the nine in the Bay Area.

How are you qualifying "disproportionately" though? (Note: I fixed the spelling for you). Tulare County is the 18th most populous in California, but at the time of writing this they're reporting the second highest rate in the state. For a county that small, THAT seems disproportionate to me. It may have something to do with the relative concentration of towns to each other in that county, as well as exchange among them. Per the previous paragraph, consider the exchanges solely within LA County in contrast to those in Northern California where counties are smaller in area and involve more frequent county line crossings (such as San Mateo, Marin, or Alameda Counties into San Francisco). You're focused on a discrete county basis, so metro areas around San Francisco/San Jose and Sacramento would, by your definition, look "better" when focused on single counties.

If it makes you feel better, I just saw an article today that stated a whopping 92% of confirmed deaths in LA County involved people with underlying health conditions. (I did the work for you, see below). If there's one thing this pandemic has highlighted, even among skilled professionals including infectious disease experts, is an inability to look at the broader picture.



https://ktla.com/news/local-news/num...limbs-to-1793/
You misunderstood my post. My point was, the first explanation people come up with is that LA County has more people.

I already accounted for that before I posted and LA County has per capita both more infected as well as more deaths. I didn’t factor in the tiniest of counties because small populations can be skewed by fairly small abnormalities.
 
Old 05-17-2020, 12:03 PM
 
4,536 posts, read 10,580,183 times
Reputation: 4068
Quote:
Originally Posted by SandyCo View Post
Does every county in California have an equal ability to test? Because L.A. County has so many tests now that they're offering a test to anyone who wants one. The more people you test, the more positive results you'll get. Why so many deaths? Well, it's a large county, over 10 million people. L.A. County has roughly the same population as the entire state of Michigan. Also, 183 nursing homes in our county have at least one case.

Another reason? Some people are refusing to social distance and wear face masks. There was a lot of cruising up and down a major boulevard in my neighborhood last night. Some classic cars were parked at a nearby gas station, and the guys standing around weren't socially distancing and only one guy was wearing a mask - around his neck. If you go into Van Nuys, people are selling things on street corners, etc. (which may be why Van Nuys has 529 cases now and Sherman Oaks only has 197).
It’s nothing like much of OC where literally no one wears masks. I posted a few weeks about poor neighborhoods in LA demolishing the stay at home orders and people EVERYWHERE on the streets, but every single person had a mask on.
 
Old 05-17-2020, 12:18 PM
 
12,340 posts, read 26,015,727 times
Reputation: 10350
Is it possible that LA has the more lethal and contagious strain of coronavirus that hit NYC (from Italy) whereas other areas in California are dealing more with the less lethal/less contagious coronavirus that came from Washington state (from Wuhan)?

LA could be suffering more due to the high traffic at its airport.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...-than-original

Edit: by the way, some experts don't agree with this theory about one of the two strains being more lethal. https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...a5f_story.html
 
Old 05-17-2020, 12:40 PM
 
Location: San Diego
61 posts, read 61,567 times
Reputation: 159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Henna View Post
Is it possible that LA has the more lethal and contagious strain of coronavirus that hit NYC (from Italy) whereas other areas in California are dealing more with the less lethal/less contagious coronavirus that came from Washington state (from Wuhan)?

LA could be suffering more due to the high traffic at its airport.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...-than-original

Edit: by the way, some experts don't agree with this theory about one of the two strains being more lethal. https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...a5f_story.html
It's possible. It also looks like a lot evacuated to L.A.
Attached Thumbnails
Why so many covid 19 cases and deaths in LA County-screen-shot-2020-05-17-10.32.10  
 
Old 05-17-2020, 12:52 PM
 
12,340 posts, read 26,015,727 times
Reputation: 10350
Quote:
Originally Posted by AquaTee View Post
It's possible. It also looks like a lot evacuated to L.A.
I don't think it would be just people coming from NYC. It would also be anyone flying from Europe to LA during those few months, regardless of whether they had a connecting flight or not in between.
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