Why so many covid 19 cases and deaths in LA County (Los Angeles: income, living)

[ut new]

My data point, is our friend's grandma 95 years was in a Santa Monica facility and was being brought food by her relatives because she refused to eat facility food. No signs of sickness or cold. Lockdown then forbid visitors and outside food, and grandma refused all facility food and died a week later. Was labeled as C19 death.

My understanding is that nursing holmes are now trying to get immunity from C19 lawsuits.

Just checked in with the same facility, and the worker there said they put all the infected, and non-infected, into the same rooms while not allowing visitors. And since mid-March, they have had over 30 deaths at that facility, all tagged covid. The current Santa Monica page shows only 14 deaths total:

https://www.santamonica.gov/coronavirus

So the remaining numbers are being held back, to be published when needed.

[CA4Now]

A new study suggests that substantially more people have been infected by the coronavirus than what Los Angeles County’s confirmed case count shows, backing previous findings from a preliminary serology study reported last month.

The study tested 865 people for coronavirus antibodies during the second week of April, when roughly 8,430 cases of the virus had been confirmed in L.A. County. The findings suggest that the prevalence of antibodies among residents was 4.65%, an estimate that implies about 367,000 adults had been infected by the virus at the time. The preliminary findings reported last month estimated that 4.1% of county residents had contracted the virus.

The ongoing study from USC and L.A. County’s Public Health Department was published Monday in the Journal of the American Medical Assn.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...us-cases-study

[CA4Now]

Along with the updated death count — which now stands at 2,016, according to The Times’ coronavirus tracker — Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer announced an additional 1,204 confirmed infections, pushing the county’s total past 42,000.

Overall, 52% of those who have died in the county lived in an institutional setting, Ferrer said. The vast majority of those people were residents of skilled-nursing facilities, she added.

Ferrer also said the county has seen a 12% decrease in its latest seven-day average of deaths per day, as well as a 15% decrease in its most recent three-day average for hospitalizations per day.

Of those who have tested positive for COVID-19 in the county, Ferrer said, 76% were between the ages of 18 and 65 — and “this is the age group that makes up the majority of our workforce.”

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...oves-to-reopen

[CA4Now]

...in addition to R (reproduction number), scientists use a value called the dispersion factor (k), which describes how much a disease clusters. The lower k is, the more transmission comes from a small number of people.

Adam Kucharski of LSHTM (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) estimated that k for COVID-19 is as low as 0.1. “Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” Kucharski says.

Individual patients’ characteristics play a role as well. Some people shed far more virus, and for a longer period of time, than others, perhaps because of differences in their immune system or the distribution of virus receptors in their body. A 2019 study of healthy people showed some breathe out many more particles than others when they talk. (The volume at which they spoke explained some of the variation.)

The factor scientists are closest to understanding is where COVID-19 clusters are likely to occur. “Clearly there is a much higher risk in enclosed spaces than outside”....

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...read-virus-all

[CA4Now]

How L.A. County became coronavirus epicenter: Slower shutdown, density, poverty among theories:
https://www.latimes.com/california/s...ot-los-angeles

[citizensadvocate]

Its interesting how places that should had been hotspots are not places that shouldn't be hotspots in this metro area is.

One would think hotspots would be near the universities i.e UCLA/USC/CSULA/(lots of overseas students who returned to school before the China/International travel lockdown), Westwood, job centers, and old and New Chinatowns of the valley such as San Gabriel and Cerritos/Artesia, yet there had been very few cases per capita in those areas. On the flip side towns with very little relationship with China or Asia has much higher number of cases including per capita.

Also Las Vegas should had been a hot spot much earlier as busloads of tourists from China keep going there from LA/Monterey Park until the shutdown in China in January. However Las Vegas and Nevada had almost no cases until CA was shut down. you'd think so many tourists/gamblers in crowded/stuffy casino destinations and eating at buffets would had caused an outbreak to occur much earlier. But it didn't. Everything just seems so suspicious and nothing seems to make sense about this outbreak nor explainable.

[goodheathen]

"suspicious"?

I think Las Vegas probably has a high percentage of travelers who are domestic-only and, except for LA, often from American regions that are little-affected by coronavirus. Groups of Chinese tourists to Vegas probably keep to themselves and don't for instance attend conventions.

Also, re the number of cases in Los Angeles, lots of casual sex, more than almost all other cities, I think.

[JohnG72]

I’m not sure I’m onto something here or not.

IF, and I mean IF there’s some greater degree of elder care facilities in LA County...and if the jobs in those places are low in pay and if it’s mostly latinos working in those facilities...

The virus seems to spread most easily amoung people living together.

Considering that housing in LA is very expensive AND that lower income latinos are more likely to reside with multiple extended family members, is it not possible that much of the CV spread in LA County is limited to elder care facilities AND households containing employees of such facilities?

Again, I have seen no evidence of the second part of this...that is, the households of employees of care facilities. But there’s been little else in the way of plausible explanation of why LA County has so many more infections and deaths than elsewhere in CA.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by Astral_Weeks

Where did you find the info on the proportion of assisted living facilities in LA County vs. other counties?

According to this NBC news article from 5/23:

Los Angeles has far more nursing homes — 388 — than any other county in the state. San Diego, the state's second most populous county with about a third of LA's population, has about one-fifth as many nursing homes.

Barbara Ferrer, public health director for Los Angeles County, who somberly provides COVID-19 statistics at daily briefings recently said the death rates by race and class were “concerning.” People living in areas of high poverty were dying at four times the rate of those in communities of low poverty.

Per 100,000 people, 18 of those who died were African American, 15.5 were Latino, 12 were Asian and nine were white.

It didn’t always look this way. Earlier in the outbreak, as Northern California was harder hit, cases in Los Angeles began to appear in larger numbers in richer parts of town, particularly those closer to the coast. Beverly Hills, Bel Air and Brentwood all had relatively high numbers.

"LA had sort of a distorted picture in the beginning of who was infected," said Karin Michels, a UCLA epidemiology professor. "The wealthier people were able to get the test kits. So it seemed like there was more disease among the wealthy."

As testing increased, the concentration of cases...

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/c...virus/2367491/

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

According to this NBC news article from 5/23:

Los Angeles has far more nursing homes — 388 — than any other county in the state. San Diego, the state's second most populous county with about a third of LA's population, has about one-fifth as many nursing homes.

Barbara Ferrer, public health director for Los Angeles County, who somberly provides COVID-19 statistics at daily briefings recently said the death rates by race and class were “concerning.” People living in areas of high poverty were dying at four times the rate of those in communities of low poverty.

Per 100,000 people, 18 of those who died were African American, 15.5 were Latino, 12 were Asian and nine were white.

It didn’t always look this way. Earlier in the outbreak, as Northern California was harder hit, cases in Los Angeles began to appear in larger numbers in richer parts of town, particularly those closer to the coast. Beverly Hills, Bel Air and Brentwood all had relatively high numbers.

"LA had sort of a distorted picture in the beginning of who was infected," said Karin Michels, a UCLA epidemiology professor. "The wealthier people were able to get the test kits. So it seemed like there was more disease among the wealthy."

As testing increased, the concentration of cases...

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/c...virus/2367491/

Now I REALLY want to know how many cases in homes where one or more residents works in an elder care facility. Remember, they would have been essential workers. And unlike Doctors and PA’s who are almost always in good physical shape, and nurses who are generally in good shape, I’d guess that many/most elder care facility employees are not.

Thank you for the article, were finally getting somewhere.