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Old 05-21-2008, 06:51 PM
 
1,831 posts, read 4,864,972 times
Reputation: 666

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Quote:
Originally Posted by motoman View Post
One month does not a trend make. Let's revisit this in the fourth quarter as many of the resets in the second and third quarters go into foreclosure.

There is also an article on that link showing foreclosures are already at a 15 year high. And they are just going to get worse for at least another 6-9 months, perhaps a year.
While I agree to some extent ... I've followed this data pretty closely and, the first thing that signalled the bust wasn't prices ... it was the number of sales going down. I don't remember much variation or monthly blips where the number of sales were going down and then going up again ... the number of sales consistently kept going down.

Now that sales have gone up a bit, this could very well signal the turn where prices may continue to fall but ... if sales keep increasing eventually .... prices will follow. As I said before, I've been out there and it sure looked to me like demand was picking up. Turns out I was right ...

As for articles ... the media is always behind on these things. I wouldn't count on that at all. If anything ... the conventional "bad news" wisdom by the media is yet another potential signal that market has turned. Mostly because they're so wrong 99 percent of the time.

If you're going to wait for the fourth quarter ... ok but, I'm not. If the banks start to think they can move these deals at better prices these bargains won't be around for much longer.

Last edited by sheri257; 05-21-2008 at 07:16 PM..
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Old 05-22-2008, 01:38 AM
 
37 posts, read 140,155 times
Reputation: 22
Bah - sales are "up" only because they have been so horrendously, horrendously low. As of now, foreclosures are almost, if not, already, outselling regular properties.
Market is predicted to turn around in 2011 for most of L.A. The more expensive areas will take longer to drop, just they did in the early 1990s crash. The same buble occurred in Tokyo in the 1990s, and prices STILL haven't recovered - they are 25% !!! of what they were. So this can happened here too.

Affordability is about 3x average salary in the area - not 7-9x. Go look at a Case-Shiller graph and see for yourself.
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Old 05-22-2008, 02:18 AM
 
64 posts, read 283,141 times
Reputation: 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by kitty3 View Post
Hi-Those of you looking to sell/buy houses in Southern California, what is the general mood? Are housing prices still dropping? Or have they reached the bottom? I'm wanting to buy a home near or in the Tehachapi area (east of Bakersfield, in the mountains). When I was there in March, it seems every other house had a 'FOR SALE' sign in the yard, but prices were still a little high. Just wondering if I should buy now, or wait a bit. Your predictions?? Will prices still continue to drop?
It's hard to say what motivates people. Often, in the sale of a house, there is an emotional factor involved, more than just cold hard biz sense. Some people can't drop prices because it means they will eat it financially, some people are trying to use the sales money from a house to move and live off of for retirement, some people just have visions of sugar plum fairies dancing in their head and they just aren't hooked into reality of needing to drop the price of a home to sell it.

Plus, you have to really look at the micro climate of where you are looking. For instance, even though the economy in CA has suffered in the last few years, the Silicon valley is still hot economically. So housing prices in that area are still just as outrageous as they used to be.

In LA, some areas are ghost towns and prices have really dropped. Like in the Inland Valley. But then look at what's happening in the area in LA around Universal City, with NBC relocation, prices in the areas within a close commute are starting to rise.

I always tend to think, if you are looking for a home, find the place that either feels or you can make into home, and don't get too greedy either way about buying or selling.
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Old 05-22-2008, 05:55 AM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
26,345 posts, read 84,716,335 times
Reputation: 17581
At the luxury end, home prices are falling - Los Angeles Times

try Bugmenot.com - login with these free web passwords to bypass compulsory registration for logins and passwords if you have a problem reading this LA Times (or other new source) article
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Old 05-22-2008, 09:19 AM
 
830 posts, read 2,618,777 times
Reputation: 381
Quote:
Originally Posted by ParkTwain View Post
Not if there is significant Federal action later in 2008 to aid homeowners.

This is going to help few people. It is more of a political maneuver than an actual market intervention.
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Old 05-22-2008, 09:23 AM
 
830 posts, read 2,618,777 times
Reputation: 381
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheri257 View Post
While I agree to some extent ... I've followed this data pretty closely and, the first thing that signalled the bust wasn't prices ... it was the number of sales going down. I don't remember much variation or monthly blips where the number of sales were going down and then going up again ... the number of sales consistently kept going down.

Now that sales have gone up a bit, this could very well signal the turn where prices may continue to fall but ... if sales keep increasing eventually .... prices will follow. As I said before, I've been out there and it sure looked to me like demand was picking up. Turns out I was right ...

As for articles ... the media is always behind on these things. I wouldn't count on that at all. If anything ... the conventional "bad news" wisdom by the media is yet another potential signal that market has turned. Mostly because they're so wrong 99 percent of the time.

If you're going to wait for the fourth quarter ... ok but, I'm not. If the banks start to think they can move these deals at better prices these bargains won't be around for much longer.

Yep, I'm going to wait. Prices still have a way to go on the downside. I am in no hurry.

Again, I can still rent for half what it would cost me to buy, so why in the world would I buy?
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Old 05-22-2008, 09:27 AM
 
830 posts, read 2,618,777 times
Reputation: 381
Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles View Post
At the luxury end, home prices are falling - Los Angeles Times

try Bugmenot.com - login with these free web passwords to bypass compulsory registration for logins and passwords if you have a problem reading this LA Times (or other new source) article

Haha! Awesome. And just a few months back you could find an endless string of people on this board talking about how prices in these areas wouldn't fall. Haha! This is greatness.

Thanks for passing it on.

Last edited by motoman; 05-22-2008 at 09:35 AM..
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Old 05-22-2008, 09:37 AM
 
128 posts, read 421,006 times
Reputation: 33
Quote:
Originally Posted by motoman View Post
Yep, I'm going to wait. Prices still have a way to go on the downside. I am in no hurry.

Again, I can still rent for half what it would cost me to buy, so why in the world would I buy?
Because owning a home is the American Dream!
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Old 05-22-2008, 09:38 AM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
26,345 posts, read 84,716,335 times
Reputation: 17581
Quote:
Originally Posted by motoman View Post
Haha! Awesome. And just a few months back you could find an endless string of people on this board talking about how prices in these areas wouldn't fall. Haha! This is greatness.

Thanks for passing it on.
From October 2007:

Quote:
Originally Posted by JackSparrow View Post
Buying RE now in LA is the best investment possible, prices are now in a holding pattern in the nice areas and won't drop over the next few years- so maybe they aren't very smart.
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Old 05-22-2008, 11:40 AM
 
830 posts, read 2,618,777 times
Reputation: 381
Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles View Post
From October 2007:

Nice find!
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