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Old 08-02-2009, 12:36 AM
 
11,715 posts, read 36,685,960 times
Reputation: 7522

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Quote:
Originally Posted by John23 View Post
Instead of quoting real estate experts (or shills), why dont they look at something simple, like income to housing costs?

The market is still way over inflated in some areas, since current residents couldnt afford the home they live in now, on their current salary. I think common sense will tell us when it's the bottom.
Didn't you hear? Quaint concepts like housing to income ratios don't matter in California. Everyone wants to live here and the economic rules for the rest of the country just don't apply here.
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Old 08-02-2009, 12:53 AM
 
Location: RSM
5,113 posts, read 17,793,900 times
Reputation: 1893
If they think the worst is over, wait until the first time homebuyers tax credit expires before the slowest month of the year in a year when unemployment is somewhere around 12%
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Old 08-02-2009, 07:16 AM
 
Location: Business ethics is an oxymoron.
2,106 posts, read 2,456,240 times
Reputation: 4661
The housing bubble/party/orgy was HUGE. A LOT of people made a lot of money on it. Or at least they think they did. It was pretty much the only thing that propped up the economy as a whole. Which is why so many folks refuse to let it go. Can anyone show me a SINGLE article...written ANYWHERE on the economy in general and it NOT contain a reference to house prices?

No wonder so many folks are determined to get that bubble reinflated at any cost. It's a business and you have to use whatever tools are at your disposal. Including hoarding inventory. And demanding "full price or no sale". To say nothing of actually demolishing houses as opposed to selling them at "market" prices. If you are able, why not sit there and say in so many words...."If you wish to live HERE, then you need to pony up."? If you have the patience and don't need to sell, I too would rather keep a house on the market for a month, six, or two years rather than discount it.

The one thing I'm actually surprised has not happened yet is cities simply wholesale demolishing older houses using eminent domain shielded by Prop 13 with the intent of replacing them with new high price (and no Prop 13) houses. And use "for the better good of the community (i.e. more tax revenue) as the justification.

The US Supreme Court has already, for all intents and purposes ruled this to be legal. So why more cities haven't jumped on it, I don't know. It's not as though the politicians really have much to fear in terms of voter backlash. Because plenty of them have been able to stay in office over far more egregious shenanigans. Remember. It's always the OTHER politicians that are the problems. NEVER the one YOU voted for. Right?
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Old 08-02-2009, 07:18 AM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
26,345 posts, read 84,756,882 times
Reputation: 17581
Quote:
Originally Posted by EscapeCalifornia View Post
The difference is people in those areas are usually financially better off and can hold onto their fantasy asking prices longer before they have to get serious and lower the price to actually sell it.
Another difference is the flavor of loans associated with higher cost areas:

Watch in High Definition, click HQ:


YouTube - The Mortgage Meltdown
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Old 08-02-2009, 09:29 AM
 
Location: United States
2,497 posts, read 6,524,709 times
Reputation: 2245
Quote:
Originally Posted by nick2006 View Post
They credit this supposedly to real estate experts. In my neighborhood, there are about 3 homes that have been on the market since early 2007. That's right...nearly 2 1/2 years. Still unsold. Owners refuse to lower the price. Based on this article, do real estate experts expect these homes will finally sell at their current prices. What does "welcome to the bottom" really mean? My wife thinks our neighbors are 300-400K overpriced.
You just said it, "Owners refuse to lower price." The housing market will and is getting better, but greedy hard headed home owners who won't lower their price will keep sitting on their vacant properties until either the market goes back up, or they stop being greedy.
I am also a home owner who would love to sell, but I won't "give" the house away, but I am willing to go far below value to sell it. In this economy you have to flexible.
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Old 08-02-2009, 09:36 AM
 
1,714 posts, read 5,544,721 times
Reputation: 688
Quote:
Originally Posted by EscapeCalifornia View Post
I wonder how many of these articles pushing people to buy are written by real estate shills.
I'd say, probably, 100% of them.
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Old 08-02-2009, 11:33 AM
 
120 posts, read 429,108 times
Reputation: 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Des-Lab View Post

No wonder so many folks are determined to get that bubble reinflated at any cost. It's a business and you have to use whatever tools are at your disposal. Including hoarding inventory. And demanding "full price or no sale". To say nothing of actually demolishing houses as opposed to selling them at "market" prices. If you are able, why not sit there and say in so many words...."If you wish to live HERE, then you need to pony up."? If you have the patience and don't need to sell, I too would rather keep a house on the market for a month, six, or two years rather than discount it.
I see your point, but resistance and anger are not the ingredients to "reinflate" the bubble. I told one of my neighbors that comps in the area were about 340K below what he was asking. I explained what happened during the growth of the bubble, and how prices were driven by lender, broker, and real estate fraud. The affordability factor is the biggest obstacle to reinflating the bubble.The affordability is just not there for higher priced homes, especially when considering the extreme scrutiny of the bank lending process nowadays. The bubble was not built on pure and clean supply and demand principles. It was built on lies, greed, and deception. . My neighbor is not realistic....we'll see what happens.
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Old 08-02-2009, 03:52 PM
 
Location: Below the fray
422 posts, read 1,652,415 times
Reputation: 334
Quote:
Originally Posted by timelesschild View Post
I'd say, probably, 100% of them.
Are you saying journalists are being paid under the table by realtors to write lies? I wonder how you get to be a shill.
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Old 08-02-2009, 04:26 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles, Ca
2,884 posts, read 5,291,010 times
Reputation: 2737
Quote:
Originally Posted by EscapeCalifornia View Post
Didn't you hear? Quaint concepts like housing to income ratios don't matter in California. Everyone wants to live here and the economic rules for the rest of the country just don't apply here.
They aren't making land anymore!

You have to live somewhere.

You can't sell a house as fast as you can sell stocks. Therefore they can't crash. Who believes this kind of stuff?

You have to live somewhere....yeah, you can live in your car if you can't make your payments. The time and energy that goes into creating real estate propaganda is probably equivalent to the GDP of a small country.

Income to home prices is still waaaaay out of whack.
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Old 08-02-2009, 04:37 PM
 
Location: Vancouver, WA
6,010 posts, read 12,945,531 times
Reputation: 6686
Quote:
Originally Posted by nick2006 View Post
They credit this supposedly to real estate experts. In my neighborhood, there are about 3 homes that have been on the market since early 2007. That's right...nearly 2 1/2 years. Still unsold. Owners refuse to lower the price. Based on this article, do real estate experts expect these homes will finally sell at their current prices. What does "welcome to the bottom" really mean? My wife thinks our neighbors are 300-400K overpriced.
USA Today has a similar article here: Welcome to the bottom: Housing begins slow rebound

I found the regional outlook the most interesting: "The recession remains the region's wild card. Unemployment is at 10.2% in the West, but that could go higher if the economy worsens. If that happens, expect more foreclosures and a slower turnaround."

I don't think determining when we actually arrive at the bottom depends on anything else than looking at the raw numbers. It doesn't matter what Yahoo, USA Today or ppl on a forum think. When prices stop declining for a statistically significant number of months in a row in any given market then that is the indicator.

And once we reach the bottom I can guarantee that most Californians will think prices are still too high, unless they are current homeowners of course. But if the market will bear this new baseline then thats all that matters when speaking purely in economic terms. There are no rules written anywhere that state CA RE prices need to drop far enough to be affordable for most ppl. It would be nice but IMO prices will still seem high especially in the nicer areas, just not as high as the peak. It seems like a pipe dream to think prices will ever be like they were in the 70s or like the rest of the nation. And I am not trying burst anyone's bubble. As one who is leasing currently I think it would be great if prices continue to drop and drop and drop. But realistically I am just not sure how much further this will go.

Derek

Last edited by MtnSurfer; 08-02-2009 at 04:45 PM..
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