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Old 12-16-2011, 01:20 PM
 
Location: Maryland not Murlin
8,205 posts, read 22,790,901 times
Reputation: 6183

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Quote:
Originally Posted by KLynch10 View Post
How many of those dems are in MoCo and PG, which was my point? Plus I said growth of PG and MoCo, Charles County is def PG 2.0 right now.

I think my 370k # in bmore has to be off too. There is only 620k people in bmore, what percent are under 18? Probably a lot, so that # makes it seem that just about every adult in bmore is registered, and registered dem.
The entire State votes for the Governor, obviously. So, in the larger context of the State as a whole, it does not matter how many Democrats or Republicans reside in which-ever county.

Now, in terms of other types of elections, yes, the number of Reps and Dems that reside in a particular county will effect the outcome[s]. But for Governor, it is not an issue.
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Old 12-16-2011, 06:00 PM
 
Location: Cumberland
5,257 posts, read 8,456,448 times
Reputation: 3690
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrRational View Post
And a few of them might even break out of those counties and achieve a more broad appeal. But of the few who have done this and which I can recall... Gilchrest; Beall and Mathias (are there others? anyone of more recent vintage?)... didn't seem to get much actual support from that GOP. If anything, their success seems to be despite being Republicans.

No, I suspect that what really matters in terms of support and ultimate success beyond that narrow "have to stay true to their local base" are how broadly their views about things and approaches to problems align with the majority of voters and regardless of party affiliation.

Maybe in another thirty years the demographics will change enough to change this alignment.
Thirty years ago, my former boss the stalwart GOP supporter was convinced it would be less.

In my own lifetime I've witnessed two R's make it to to Governor in MD.
Neither one did so because their views were aligned with that majority. Both wins were flukes.

hth
I would like to think voters are educated enough to look beyond the label "D" or "R" and pick the candidate that best aligns with their views, but I don't really see it happening often enough to overcome party loyalty. I know countless people in real life, and have seen countless examples in this chatroom of the "ra ra" cheerleader type supporters for both parties. There is no talking sense to these people. They view their political party as a badge of tribal loyalty. In a state where the blue tribe outnumbers the red tribe 2 to 1, the results of the state elections are pretty much guaranteed.

I ran into a woman once when campaigning for a candidate that confronted me before I could say anything with the question "Which party?" I said GOP, and she shewed me away before even knowing who the candidate was, which office she was seeking, or her political philosophy (which ironically is more liberal than DINO opponent) No matter to this woman, GOP = bad, and that was that.

I do agree that it takes 3 full moons in one month for a GOP candidate to be elected to state office, which is why I am not sure I will live to see another.

Ehrlich didn't win as much as KKT lost. It must be her support for students learning the "Hispanish language" in schools, or maybe her supporters found her stump speech beside the "statutes" of other great leaders to be uninspiring
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Old 12-16-2011, 06:34 PM
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
29,834 posts, read 65,519,670 times
Reputation: 34893
Quote:
Originally Posted by westsideboy View Post
Ehrlich didn't win as much as KKT lost.
Exactly. Same as when Agnew won vs Mahoney.

Quote:
It must be her support for students learning the "Hispanish language" in schools, or maybe her supporters found her stump speech beside the "statutes" of other great leaders to be uninspiring
It was far simpler than that: she didn't have any actual supporters nor any actual record to run on.
All she had was that big pile of Kennedy money to finance a campaign with.

The point though is that however partisan the Dems may be... the candidate still needs to bring the goods.
The other two names I mentioned (Beall and Mathias) had the goods but neither of them could get an R nomination today.
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Old 12-17-2011, 09:33 AM
 
Location: Somewhere in the lower eastern shore.....
52 posts, read 114,672 times
Reputation: 40
Yeah, I think most folks in Maryland will either have a republican govenor or vote for the next republican president sooner or later if folks from the DC and Baltimore suburbs become a little more conservative.
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Old 12-17-2011, 12:37 PM
 
Location: Cumberland
5,257 posts, read 8,456,448 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrRational View Post
Exactly. Same as when Agnew won vs Mahoney.


It was far simpler than that: she didn't have any actual supporters nor any actual record to run on. All she had was that big pile of Kennedy money to finance a campaign with.

The point though is that however partisan the Dems may be... the candidate still needs to bring the goods.
The other two names I mentioned (Beall and Mathias) had the goods but neither of them could get an R nomination today.
She had some real issues with her campaign. I remember her "Western Maryland" op was some fresh-faced Ivy league type that had no connections or knowlege of our area. He showed up a week before the election and asked the local Dem candidates to piggy-bag her yard signs on our locations.

I just can't pass up a chance to point out what a ding bat she is with the English language.

Do you remember what her favorite part of the Raven Superbowl win was?

"I loved it when we made that football," she said. "The Giants had just made a football, and we came right back."

Last edited by westsideboy; 12-17-2011 at 01:25 PM..
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Old 12-19-2011, 11:31 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, MD
3,237 posts, read 3,393,951 times
Reputation: 3010
The right wingers in the Republican party have only themselves to blame. They've gone so far to the right that they will never nominate someone electable in Maryland. Who will run against Democrat X in 2014? Probably some anonymous right ring nobody state senator will face off against Anthony Brown, Peter Franchot or Doug Gansler.

Republicans have gone so off their nut that they don't consider Ehrlich to be a conservative just because he is to the left of the extreme right that has taken over the party. When Republicans put up people who weren't fire breathing pansies who kowtow to the far right, they'd win elections in blue areas. The real action will be in the Democratic primary and if Maryland ends up with a somewhat more conservative governor, it will be because a fiscally conservative Democrat has won the primary. It's a lot like DC, they had 2 conservative governors in a row: Anthony Williams and Adrian Fenty. They were elected under the Democratic banner.
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Old 12-19-2011, 11:47 AM
 
503 posts, read 695,877 times
Reputation: 382
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhenomenalAJ View Post
The right wingers in the Republican party have only themselves to blame. They've gone so far to the right that they will never nominate someone electable in Maryland. Who will run against Democrat X in 2014? Probably some anonymous right ring nobody state senator will face off against Anthony Brown, Peter Franchot or Doug Gansler.

Republicans have gone so off their nut that they don't consider Ehrlich to be a conservative just because he is to the left of the extreme right that has taken over the party. When Republicans put up people who weren't fire breathing pansies who kowtow to the far right, they'd win elections in blue areas. The real action will be in the Democratic primary and if Maryland ends up with a somewhat more conservative governor, it will be because a fiscally conservative Democrat has won the primary. It's a lot like DC, they had 2 conservative governors in a row: Anthony Williams and Adrian Fenty. They were elected under the Democratic banner.
and the Democratic party of this state is so far to the left that people like Mandel, Shaeffer and Phil Jimeno would be considered right wingers compared to the socialists that occupy the state house today.

The only way that the democratic party in this state is able to maintain it's lock on PG, MoCo and Baltimore City is a continuing pattern of handouts to the residents of those counties.

Absent those three divisions and most of Howard County, Maryland is a red state.

Even in the 2008 presidential election, without question the single worst run republican campaign in history, MD was red except for PG, MoCo, Baltimore, Baltco Charles and Howard.

Even in the 2010 Governor's election, the entire state, with the exception of those 5 went for Ehlrich.

Turns out that as long as the democratic party in MD continues to give money away, they can buy the votes to stay in office.
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Old 12-19-2011, 12:13 PM
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
29,834 posts, read 65,519,670 times
Reputation: 34893
Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry Bowman View Post
Even in the 2008 presidential election, without question the single worst run republican campaign in history, MD was red except for PG, MoCo, Baltimore, Baltco Charles and Howard.
And when the trees and cornfields begin voting... this observation might even matter.
Until then, we're left with the population centers of the state.
Areas btw, with one of the highest concentration of college graduates in the country.

Quote:
...and the Democratic party of this state is so far to the left that people like Mandel, Shaeffer and Phil Jimeno would be considered right wingers compared to the socialists that occupy the state house today.
Meh. Outside of the 4 or 5 hot button social issues that are fostered into being artificially divisive (by the right)... the fiscal conservancy of a Mandel or Schaefer (of Beall or Mathias ftm) would win hands down in Maryland.
And for that matter any State and the Presidency as well.

My observation is that the right prefers to tilt at the windmills of those social issues (that affect VERY few)
than to actually govern the rest of us.
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Old 12-19-2011, 04:27 PM
 
Location: Montgomery County, MD
3,237 posts, read 3,393,951 times
Reputation: 3010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry Bowman View Post
and the Democratic party of this state is so far to the left that people like Mandel, Shaeffer and Phil Jimeno would be considered right wingers compared to the socialists that occupy the state house today.

The only way that the democratic party in this state is able to maintain it's lock on PG, MoCo and Baltimore City is a continuing pattern of handouts to the residents of those counties.

Absent those three divisions and most of Howard County, Maryland is a red state.

Even in the 2008 presidential election, without question the single worst run republican campaign in history, MD was red except for PG, MoCo, Baltimore, Baltco Charles and Howard.

Even in the 2010 Governor's election, the entire state, with the exception of those 5 went for Ehlrich.

Turns out that as long as the democratic party in MD continues to give money away, they can buy the votes to stay in office.
You're just being ridiculous now, forgetting that the Religious Right scares the crap out of normal people and that that is not a factor in elections. Also why do you go by the pathetic argument that because more counties in a state vote for someone that they gain legitimacy? Land doesn't vote homey.

You're setting arbitrary boundaries on voter behavior. If being a right winger was so great, everyone would do it, people dont say "oo i live in so and so county, i will vote for the person my county is likely to vote for".

Like I said, if the GOP didn't try as hard as they can to get a right wing candidate in every race regardless of its appropriateness to the electorate, they would do well. Look at the banner year 2010 for Republicans where they never did better. Sharon Angle in Nevada, Ken Buck in Colorado, Christine O'Donnell in Delaware and Joe Miller in Alaska were all Republicans who lost their Senate races. Appealing to the nasty anti-Hispanic and pro rich bigots won't win elections in places with normal people. I reiterate that if a conservative gets elected in Maryland, he will be a Democrat, the Republicans have burned every bridge and lost the Northeast other than PA.
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Old 12-19-2011, 04:54 PM
 
Location: Back and Forth FRANCE
2,714 posts, read 2,681,365 times
Reputation: 1477
No.
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