Does Hogan Really Have a Chance? (Baltimore: buy, public school, to eat)

[LoveToRow]

Originally Posted by North Beach Person

Most, if not all, MD school systems are closed Election Day, both primary and general. The reasoning is that many jurisdictions have schools as polling places.

So what's the rationale for state and local governments having the day off?

[North Beach Person]

Originally Posted by Trace21230

So what's the rationale for state and local governments having the day off?

Don't have any idea.

[tmsterp]

Originally Posted by K-Luv

I do not know of one single Democrat who is going to vote for Hogan. I am sure he will get a few, perhaps many, but I do not know of anyone personally who is talking about it nor do I know of any "staunch" Democrats who would vote for a Repub. That is what makes them staunch. Typically a Democrat will simply not vote for anyone if they do not like who from their party is on the ballot, or they will vote for a 3rd Party that aligns with their ideals (usually Green Party), if one is running.

Interesting. Do you live in the DC area? My suspicion is that most liberal DC area Dems are voting Brown, and that the Dems voting Hogan are in blue-collar or middle class Baltimore suburbs. At least that's what it seems. Obviously both of our personal observations are unscientific. Brown will win at least 2/3rd of Dems beyond any doubt, most likely much more. How much more will determine who wins.

[Fiyero]

Originally Posted by Trace21230

None of that this time. And most Democrat voters are not at work on election day. They either don't have jobs or have the day off because it's a union holiday.

You know, you might be more persuasive if you didn't constantly come off like a jerk with your anti-liberal/democrat obsession.

[PylesFord]

Obsessions are GOOD!

[WhoDatInMD]

Originally Posted by Trace21230

So what's the rationale for state and local governments having the day off?

In New Orleans, City Hall is used as a polling place. Maybe some of the local and state buildings here do the same. I really don't think there's some hidden agenda behind schools and the local/state govt having election day off.

[LoveToRow]

Originally Posted by lenora

Nate Silver's blog gives Brown a 94% chance of winning.

One Day Left: The Most Competitive Races For Governor | FiveThirtyEight

This (state) election may prove to be interesting after all.

Nate Silver was wrong.

[K-Luv]

Originally Posted by tmsterp

Interesting. Do you live in the DC area? My suspicion is that most liberal DC area Dems are voting Brown, and that the Dems voting Hogan are in blue-collar or middle class Baltimore suburbs. At least that's what it seems. Obviously both of our personal observations are unscientific. Brown will win at least 2/3rd of Dems beyond any doubt, most likely much more. How much more will determine who wins.

First off, I'll eat crow: the Missus, life-long Dem, told me she was going to vote for Hogan yesterday morning based on "info" she got from an aunt-also a lifelong Dem who voted for Hogan.

I live in Howard County.

Most people vote their livelihoods. I used to work in construction, welding specifically. Nearly everyone on the jobsite[s] were of the "God, Guns, and Guts" variety if you catch my drift. But, most would vote Democrat because they know a Republican will end their Union jobs. So what are they going to do? The same is true for members of law enforcement and fire-fighting unions. The DC-area suburbs have a lot of Federal Gov. employees, contractors, and Union workers. These are people who are going to vote for those who are less likely to end their jobs or cut their pay. Typically, that means voting for Democrats but does not necessarily mean that the voter is Democrat.

I stand by what I previously wrote: no true Liberal would vote for a Republican.

Roughly 3/4 of Baltimore City went to Brown.

Charles County went to Brown and Howard County went to Hogan. Both were close enough to 50/50 to say they were close to being evenly split.

Montgomery County went to Brown, giving him your predicted 2/3s of the vote.

Prince George's County went to Brown, by a whopping 80%.

All other Counties went to Hogan, giving roughly between 2/3s and 3/4s of the vote to him.

I am pulling this off the top of my head, it seems that Brown received close to 80% of his vote from MoCo and PG Counties alone. That was probably expected. However, in my opinion, Brown lost not because "Maryland" wanted change, but because "Maryland" assumed Brown was going to win-including Brown himself. All Counties that were expected to go Red, went Red. The two Counties that were expected to go Blue, and Baltimore City, went Blue.

Brown's entire campaign was about nothing more than: "I'm the Democratic candidate. Of course I am going to win, duh." I bet there are many, many, people who would have voted for Brown but stayed home instead believing their man had the easy win anyways, so they could just sit home and watch TV. Also, Baltimore City's turnout was rather pathetic considering the size of its population. Roughly 15% of Baltimore City went out to vote. If 30% of the City went out to vote, and surely that is still a low percentage of total population, Brown could have won.

[adelphi_sky]

Originally Posted by K-Luv

Also, Baltimore City's turnout was rather pathetic considering the size of its population. Roughly 15% of Baltimore City went out to vote. If 30% of the City went out to vote, and surely that is still a low percentage of total population, Brown could have won.

This sums it all up. Nobody cares about mid-terms. Only those truly engaged in federal and local civics vote every two years. And in two years you'll have dems pulling their hair out complaining. They'll vote for a democratic president. Then they'll sit home at the mid-terms and blame the president for their woes. It's a very interesting observation of how this county has gotten dumber when it comes to being aware of politics and how it affects them locally.

In a better world, we should have more than 60% of the people voting every two years.

[Cruzincat]

Originally Posted by K-Luv

Most people vote their livelihoods. I used to work in construction, welding specifically. Nearly everyone on the jobsite[s] were of the "God, Guns, and Guts" variety if you catch my drift. But, most would vote Democrat because they know a Republican will end their Union jobs. So what are they going to do? The same is true for members of law enforcement and fire-fighting unions. The DC-area suburbs have a lot of Federal Gov. employees, contractors, and Union workers. These are people who are going to vote for those who are less likely to end their jobs or cut their pay. Typically, that means voting for Democrats but does not necessarily mean that the voter is Democrat.

They know that? They have been told that buy the union leaders, but which party has done more damage to union jobs in the long run? Sure, you can find areas in which a Republican was in charge and had to make difficult choices that affected union jobs, but those choices were more than likely forced due to previous policies that Democrats had instituted. It is these policies that have hurt union jobs, by giving the unions more than what the state or local jurisdiction can hope to afford in the long run, all in the hopes of garnering their members votes.