Mizeur Says She May Run Against Harris (money, business)

[westsideboy]

Originally Posted by bufflove

The 1st could also span into Annapolis rather than into Baltimore. The district wouldn't need to be physically contiguous since the bridge legally counts as meeting the requirement.

Yes, but that puts you in the heart of that gerrymander h***. By my count, getting to Baltimore City from the Bay Bridge requires going through District 3, 4, 2, then 3 again, then 7, depending on which route you take.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryla...h_Congress.tif

Again, not needing or wanting a specific map, this shows the challenge of getting District #1 into the DEM heavy part of the state without breaking those narrow cooridors that connect the existing gerrymanders together.

[The Very Man Himself]

Originally Posted by westsideboy

I didn't say "people" or "politicians," so there is nothing for you to "change" in my post. Here is it a third time for you to read.

"The underlying make-up of his district will determine his political fate, not how I-95 Marylanders judge him for his actions."

People in different parts of our state have different mentalities and attitudes towards the world, and these differences play out in the political process. Political antagonism towards people who give my home (and myself) no respect or consideration is expected. Different communities have different needs and wants. Sometimes we are on different sides of the debate, and for the overwhelming majority of my life, that political conflict has been between communities like mine and communities like yours.

If you have to personalize this political reality and attempt to denegrade my experience, opinions, and voice on this site by making more personal accusations about how I must feel, or what I must have experienced in my life, have at it. It's more evidence you can't hang in an actual conversation about the topics you seem to want to discuss. And no, researching 'one post" ahead to try and sound knowledgable doesn't fool people. I was in the room with the Speaker of the Maryland House of Delegates crunching the new precinct numbers when the 2000 legislative redistricting map was overturned. Where were you?

Who will determine the make up of his district?

I used "people" instead of "I-95 Marylanders" because of the alliteration with politicians. If you want to be pedantic and call that a substantive difference in meaning, in the context of a Md discussion, so be it.

I have three questions. 1: Are Marylanders people? 2: Are people Marylanders? 3: Are politicians both people and Marylanders?

Beyond I-95 people condemning*Talbot County Council I haven't seen much condemnation here by I-95ers of non. We elected and re-elected Larry Hogan. That suggests a level of compromise by Dems that rarely gets reciprocated, in Md or elsewhere.
In 2000 I was sunning my happy ass in DC, (for work).

[The Very Man Himself]

Originally Posted by westsideboy

Yes, but that puts you in the heart of that gerrymander h***. By my count, getting to Baltimore City from the Bay Bridge requires going through District 3, 4, 2, then 3 again, then 7, depending on which route you take.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryla...h_Congress.tif

Again, not needing or wanting a specific map, this shows the challenge of getting District #1 into the DEM heavy part of the state without breaking those narrow cooridors that connect the existing gerrymanders together.

You seem to be ignoring the fact that since 2000 the population of Md has increased by 750,000. Assuming the normal 2:1 D:R breakdown, that means there are an extra 250K D votes to play with, over and above those already identified by bufflove.

[westsideboy]

Originally Posted by The Very Man Himself

You seem to be ignoring the fact that since 2000 the population of Md has increased by 750,000. Assuming the normal 2:1 D:R breakdown, that means there are an extra 250K D votes to play with, over and above those already identified by bufflove.

Not ignoring the fact, just pointing out the difficulty getting District 1 to pick up enough Dem. heavy precincts without breaking the narrow cooridors that connect all those Central Maryland gerrymanders and/or putting incumbents out of their home district or eliminating specially designed majority/minority districts.

Hey, I'm all for a map that makes any sort of geographic sense. If trying to unseat Harris makes a 8 district map of more or less naturally grouped regions, I'll gladly keep an open mind.

[North Beach Person]

Originally Posted by westsideboy

Not ignoring the fact, just pointing out the difficulty getting District 1 to pick up enough Dem. heavy precincts without breaking the narrow cooridors that connect all those Central Maryland gerrymanders and/or putting incumbents out of their home district or eliminating specially designed majority/minority districts.

Hey, I'm all for a map that makes any sort of geographic sense. If trying to unseat Harris makes a 8 district map of more or less naturally grouped regions, I'll gladly keep an open mind.

I could draw you a map that knocks Harris out but it would make Hoyer's seat real competitive (especially so since that's slated to be a majority/minority seat once he retires) and would put Sarbanes and Ruppersberger into the same District.

[westsideboy]

Originally Posted by The Very Man Himself

Who will determine the make up of his district?

I used "people" instead of "I-95 Marylanders" because of the alliteration with politicians. If you want to be pedantic and call that a substantive difference in meaning, in the context of a Md discussion, so be it.

I have three questions. 1: Are Marylanders people? 2: Are people Marylanders? 3: Are politicians both people and Marylanders?

Beyond I-95 people condemning*Talbot County Council I haven't seen much condemnation here by I-95ers of non. We elected and re-elected Larry Hogan. That suggests a level of compromise by Dems that rarely gets reciprocated, in Md or elsewhere.
In 2000 I was sunning my happy ass in DC, (for work).

Rather than being pendantic, how about being curious?

My statement is a direct statement of reality. In 2010, District 6 wasn't just redrawn to kick out Roscoe, it was designed by "I-95" folks to be a safe seat for Rob Garagiola. That didn't work out because "the underlying make-up of his district" was wrong for Rob. He was too liberal for the Dems in the conservative part of the state still in District 6 and his resume was too Maryland centric for that diverse chunk of Montgomery County. Pro-Business Dem. Delaney kicked his butt in the primary.

Underlying District demographics 1
I-95 people 0

While you were sunning your butt in D.C., I was in the room with Speaker Taylor as the motivations of "I-95" folks fell short again. Their redistricting plan failed, it was redone by the courts. Neither had ANY desire to unseat a popular and long serving Speaker of the House, but that is what happened. Why? Because despite their desires, they drew up a new 1-C that had a huge GOP advantage. I was the guy who crunched the new numbers and had to errr.....politely inform Cas's campaign chief that his new 1-C made him an underdog, and no Democrat going back 4 cycles had achieved a 50% + 1 result there. Cas lost and MD politics were turned upside down, it was close, but we couldn't beat the "underlying make-up of the district" in which GOP turnout and performance dominated despite even party registration totals.

Underlying District demographics 2
I-95 people 0

This is reality and why redistricting isn't undertaken lightly. The judgment and feelings of I-95 people, be them politicans or regular people aren't what will determine Harris' fate. How District 1 will be redrawn will determine that. It is a simple statement of truth:

"The underlying make-up of his district will determine his political fate, not how I-95 Marylanders judge him for his actions."

[bus man]

Originally Posted by North Beach Person

And you think that's a "fair" result?

This is what infuriates me about gerrymandering. If Maryland is a 2 to 1 Democratic state, and we have 8 districts, then 2 of them (or possibly even 3) should be ones that the Republican is likely to win. Restoring the 6th to basically cross the northern tier of the state, from Garrett to Cecil, and leaving the 1st the way it is, would do wonders for having a fairer result and not leaving so many people in this state feeling completely disenfranchised.

But yeah, I know, in the eyes of most politicians, voters for the other party are seen as the enemy to be ruthlessly suppressed, not Americans deserving of representation. Such is life.

[bus man]

Originally Posted by bufflove

The 1st could also span into Annapolis rather than into Baltimore. The district wouldn't need to be physically contiguous since the bridge legally counts as meeting the requirement.

So, we split the Eastern Shore into two districts, with one extending to Baltimore and the other to Annapolis. I guess this means that the westbound span will be in the ES-Balt district, and the eastbound span in the ES-Annapolis district?

Ugh. Why can't we have a nonpartisan districting process?

[westsideboy]

Originally Posted by North Beach Person

I could draw you a map that knocks Harris out but it would make Hoyer's seat real competitive (especially so since that's slated to be a majority/minority seat once he retires) and would put Sarbanes and Ruppersberger into the same District.

Exactly. The struggle of creating a new gerrymander extending into multiple incumbents' existing gerrymanders is a tall task.

The easiest way to account for an expanded District #1 is to move it into more of Carroll County (and/or Northern Frederick County) and suck up some GOP heavy areas there. My guess is that #8 and #6 has picked up enough people in its Montgomery County precicnts to account for much of the population increase.

[westsideboy]

Originally Posted by bus man

So, we split the Eastern Shore into two districts, with one extending to Baltimore and the other to Annapolis. I guess this means that the westbound span will be in the ES-Balt district, and the eastbound span in the ES-Annapolis district?

Ugh. Why can't we have a nonpartisan districting process?

You could take the "Bay Bridge north" part of current District one and move it into Baltimore City, and the part south of the Bay Bridge is then included with enough PG/Charles to water it down.

Even then, I am not sure the math would work since the Mason-Dixon part of District 1 is GOP heavy as well.