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Old 09-07-2018, 07:22 AM
 
Location: Pawtucket, RI
2,656 posts, read 1,533,740 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by massnative71 View Post
Those don't look out of the ordinary for an off year Republican Primary. Peru only has around 800 people.

My point exactly. Lively "won" a few small towns with relatively few voters by negligible margins. Beating Baker by five votes in a town with 67 registered Republicans and more than twice as many registered Democrats doesn't indicate that Lively is making waves in the Berkshires.
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Old 09-07-2018, 07:35 AM
 
16,052 posts, read 11,793,416 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mp775 View Post
My point exactly. Lively "won" a few small towns with relatively few voters by negligible margins. Beating Baker by five votes in a town with 67 registered Republicans and more than twice as many registered Democrats doesn't indicate that Lively is making waves in the Berkshires.

Then I'm not sure what your point is either. If Lively didn't mobilize his base in those towns, Baker sure as heck didn't either.
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Old 09-07-2018, 07:38 AM
 
Location: East Boston, MA
10,286 posts, read 18,385,193 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by massnative71 View Post
He has been a little "fixated" (to say the least) on certain issues, but how those views would likely dictate his policy I don't really see any significant effect on he day to day business of state government. At most, I think he would put the brakes on future radical legislation (a welcome for a large swath of the electorate). Bottom line is he wouldn't govern much differently than a "typical Republican" when it comes to social issues. He HAS, however, broadened his agenda. He has quite a bit to say on fighting the opiate crisis, repairing roads and bridges, and some quite interesting things on lifting people from poverty (that unlike your typical Republican talk could actually resonate with inner city voters).
I agree that it likely wouldn't impact policy (even if he tried, he could never move on some of those agenda items here), but it's baggage and that turns a lot of people off. It overshadows any positive aspect of his message in the eyes of almost anyone other than the people who would support him no matter what. Any candidate with a background and "fixations" like he has will be hard pressed to overcome that with the voting public (especially in MA) no matter how pristine the rest of their agenda is. That's why I think he was a pretty bad candidate (that, and the fact that he was terrible at fundraising/drumming up enthusiasm).

Quote:
Originally Posted by massnative71 View Post
Some in the press are actually picking up on Baker's vulnerability.

Charlie Baker win looking less solid | Boston Herald
He is very vulnerable. I still think he'll win the election, but I think he's in a tough spot given that he's alienated some republican voters, and Dems still will likely vote Dem. I believe he has enough support on both sides to beat Gonzalez, but it's not going to be a landslide. I think the whole "most popular governor" thing was heavy handed. I think he's beatable and has been for some time (I know a LOT of Republicans who are less than enthused with him) which is why I put very little stock in Lively's showing.
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Old 09-07-2018, 07:46 AM
 
Location: Massachusetts & Hilton Head, SC
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Baker seems to do well with independents.

What I found interesting is that Lively actually did better in Tuesday's primary vote that he did at the convention.
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Old 09-07-2018, 08:06 AM
 
16,052 posts, read 11,793,416 times
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Originally Posted by CaseyB View Post

What I found interesting is that Lively actually did better in Tuesday's primary vote that he did at the convention.
Wouldn't that usually suggest that Lively has significant support from Independents as well? Either that, or the delegates lean different from the typical Republican voter.
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Old 09-07-2018, 08:21 AM
 
Location: Massachusetts & Hilton Head, SC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by massnative71 View Post
Wouldn't that usually suggest that Lively has significant support from Independents as well? Either that, or the delegates lean different from the typical Republican voter.
How many independents bother voting in the individual Rep or Dem primaries?
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Old 09-07-2018, 08:30 AM
 
16,052 posts, read 11,793,416 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaseyB View Post
How many independents bother voting in the individual Rep or Dem primaries?
Considering most voters in MA are Independents, probably at least a few but not a lot especially in an off year election. I usually have myself, regardless.
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Old 09-07-2018, 09:01 AM
 
Location: Pawtucket, RI
2,656 posts, read 1,533,740 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by massnative71 View Post
Then I'm not sure what your point is either. If Lively didn't mobilize his base in those towns, Baker sure as heck didn't either.
My point is that the primaries he "won" have a smaller sample size than most phone polls. He received a total of 289 votes in the nine Western Mass. towns that he won. That's a pretty small base to mobilize.
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Old 09-07-2018, 10:22 AM
 
Location: New England
2,190 posts, read 1,761,490 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaseyB View Post
Baker seems to do well with independents.

What I found interesting is that Lively actually did better in Tuesday's primary vote that he did at the convention.
My guess is that people in the convention are more informed, and are more aware about how crazy Lively is. Primary voters might just vote for the guy who pledges allegiance to trump, without being totally aware of how bat-**** insane some of Livelys views are (read the pink swastika).

Also even disregarding that, Trump didn't do well with party insiders either.
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Old 09-07-2018, 12:46 PM
 
Location: East Boston, MA
10,286 posts, read 18,385,193 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tysmith95 View Post
My guess is that people in the convention are more informed, and are more aware about how crazy Lively is. Primary voters might just vote for the guy who pledges allegiance to trump, without being totally aware of how bat-**** insane some of Livelys views are (read the pink swastika).
I don't know. If you don't take the "most popular governor in America!" garbage as gospel, you can see that it's pretty simple and has nothing to do with Lively. There is a not so insiginifcant contingent of conservative voters who think Baker is weak on issues that resonate with them - immigration, sanctuary cities, support for the president and his agenda, etc. It doesn't matter who you put up against him, if they come out stronger on those few points than Baker does, they're going to get votes; regardless of the baggage that comes with his fanatical views on other issues. That said, I do think those more extreme stances do hurt him with moderates and independents - but those will be more in the Baker camp anyway. But mp755 hit the nail on the head - He won 9 towns with a grand total of 289 votes between them. That's certainly not indicative of a wave of support. A better candidate could have easily have tapped into Baker's weak (from a conservative perspective) stances on some of those issues and mobilized a hell of a lot more support.
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