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Old 09-07-2018, 03:19 PM
 
6,254 posts, read 3,529,748 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lrfox View Post
I don't know. If you don't take the "most popular governor in America!" garbage as gospel, you can see that it's pretty simple and has nothing to do with Lively. There is a not so insiginifcant contingent of conservative voters who think Baker is weak on issues that resonate with them - immigration, sanctuary cities, support for the president and his agenda, etc. It doesn't matter who you put up against him, if they come out stronger on those few points than Baker does, they're going to get votes; regardless of the baggage that comes with his fanatical views on other issues. That said, I do think those more extreme stances do hurt him with moderates and independents - but those will be more in the Baker camp anyway. But mp755 hit the nail on the head - He won 9 towns with a grand total of 289 votes between them. That's certainly not indicative of a wave of support. A better candidate could have easily have tapped into Baker's weak (from a conservative perspective) stances on some of those issues and mobilized a hell of a lot more support.
What most folks don't get is that Baker is the most popular governor in America with 69% of those surveyed approving of his performance. Lively didn't get votes because of some wave against a 99% approval rating - there was 31% sitting there for the taking.
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Old 09-07-2018, 03:34 PM
 
Location: Massachusetts & Hilton Head, SC
8,426 posts, read 12,776,260 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robr2 View Post
What most folks don't get is that Baker is the most popular governor in America with 69% of those surveyed approving of his performance. Lively didn't get votes because of some wave against a 99% approval rating - there was 31% sitting there for the taking.
Well you have to assume that some of those surveyed were democrats.
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Old 09-07-2018, 07:22 PM
 
Location: East Boston, MA
9,831 posts, read 17,772,840 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robr2 View Post
What most folks don't get is that Baker is the most popular governor in America with 69% of those surveyed approving of his performance. Lively didn't get votes because of some wave against a 99% approval rating - there was 31% sitting there for the taking.
His approval ratings were highest among acting govs. Approving of his performance does not mean that all of those people will vote for him and therefore aren’t the same thing. And as CaseyB pointed out, some of those respondents are undoubtedly dems. So the “most popular governor in America” thing is garbage because his own party has big issues with him and the right Republican candidate could have beat him.

For the record, I am registered as “unenrolled,” usually vote Dem, and approve by and large of the job Baker has done. So that essentially adds weight to massnative and others’ point about Baker being “almost a Dem.” I work with some prominent dems who really like the guy. If that’s the case, it’s not a big leap to assume there’s a big subsect of the Republican part who don’t like him. That’s why Lively was as “successful” as he was.
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Old 09-08-2018, 12:08 AM
 
Location: New England
2,190 posts, read 1,657,581 times
Reputation: 1950
Quote:
Originally Posted by lrfox View Post
I don't know. If you don't take the "most popular governor in America!" garbage as gospel, you can see that it's pretty simple and has nothing to do with Lively. There is a not so insiginifcant contingent of conservative voters who think Baker is weak on issues that resonate with them - immigration, sanctuary cities, support for the president and his agenda, etc. It doesn't matter who you put up against him, if they come out stronger on those few points than Baker does, they're going to get votes; regardless of the baggage that comes with his fanatical views on other issues. That said, I do think those more extreme stances do hurt him with moderates and independents - but those will be more in the Baker camp anyway. But mp755 hit the nail on the head - He won 9 towns with a grand total of 289 votes between them. That's certainly not indicative of a wave of support. A better candidate could have easily have tapped into Baker's weak (from a conservative perspective) stances on some of those issues and mobilized a hell of a lot more support.
Although it's the federal government who controls immigration policy, not the state ones. So baker's stance on immigration doesn't really matter with regards to being a governor.
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Old 09-08-2018, 07:24 AM
 
13,847 posts, read 10,410,359 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mp775 View Post
My point is that the primaries he "won" have a smaller sample size than most phone polls. He received a total of 289 votes in the nine Western Mass. towns that he won. That's a pretty small base to mobilize.
And the point I was trying to make, is that had he a sizeable campaign army throughout the state, he might have been able to duplicate those results elsewhere. My guess is he chose to focus his very limited resources in the smaller towns, that only makes sense.


Quote:
Originally Posted by lrfox View Post
I don't know. If you don't take the "most popular governor in America!" garbage as gospel, you can see that it's pretty simple and has nothing to do with Lively. There is a not so insiginifcant contingent of conservative voters who think Baker is weak on issues that resonate with them - immigration, sanctuary cities, support for the president and his agenda, etc. It doesn't matter who you put up against him, if they come out stronger on those few points than Baker does, they're going to get votes; regardless of the baggage that comes with his fanatical views on other issues. That said, I do think those more extreme stances do hurt him with moderates and independents - but those will be more in the Baker camp anyway. But mp755 hit the nail on the head - He won 9 towns with a grand total of 289 votes between them. That's certainly not indicative of a wave of support. A better candidate could have easily have tapped into Baker's weak (from a conservative perspective) stances on some of those issues and mobilized a hell of a lot more support.
I don't think support for Trump or lack thereof is really that big of an issues for most, he is running for governor of Massachusetts after all. Who cares how the one man votes for president anymore than some random member of the public? Personally I went with a write-in this past presidential election. It was a strange election with many abnormal motivations people had for choosing either candidate, I would certainly hope not too many would hold that against Baker as long as he didn't advertise it. I DO however, think it was very classless the way he blew off Pence when he came to town. That reflects poorly on both the state and the governorship.


And at least for me (and my guess many others), the biggest problem with Baker isn't his moderate stances. Those things never hurt Romney, Weld/Celluci, etc.; or at least conservatives were able to forgive them for it. The thing is, people feel betrayed by Baker. He has a severe loyalty problem; and rather than simply trying to walk both sides of the isle to maintain electability, he has spent a great amount of time and resources attacking members of his own party. Some of them were his "friends", people who helped get him elected. It took a LOT for Baker to earn their trust, now that is forever lost and that "lesser of the two evils" strategy will have a much harder time selling in the future. With that said, I am registered as "unenrolled" and owe nothing to either party. I simply seek candidates with integrity and who I feel will bring a balance to the often kooky politics of the state.


Quote:
Originally Posted by tysmith95 View Post
Although it's the federal government who controls immigration policy, not the state ones. So baker's stance on immigration doesn't really matter with regards to being a governor.
He could be doing far more to crack down on sanctuary cities. To be take a hard line during the election, then turn around and say "I'm against it but I'm going to leave the ultimate responsibility to the individual cities" is nothing short of laughable and an example of why so many have lost trust in him.

Last edited by massnative71; 09-08-2018 at 07:59 AM..
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