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Old 05-07-2019, 09:28 AM
 
69 posts, read 51,714 times
Reputation: 120

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The economy of Massachusetts has no impact on the 2020 election. The only states that matter are Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin. If you want to know how those states will turn, follow stories like FoxConn in Kenosha Wisconsin. A promise of 10,000 manufacturing jobs and real estate boom, thanks to trump and tax cuts for the foreign business. The result so far, almost no jobs and construction stopping. Why? Because China is not buying as many new iphones as they were. Wisconsin needs more manufacturing "wins" if it is going to try and stay in the Trump category. The economy is good overall, but is it good for voters in the midwest who will determine the next president. Simple as that. Right now there isn't a democratic able to talk to midwest values, Buttigieg may be the biggest dark horse to move up the poles. Democratic convention is in Milwaukee, again because Wisconsin matters. So overall, sorry Massachusetts voters, but we really don't matter.
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Old 05-07-2019, 01:37 PM
 
Location: Baltimore
17,986 posts, read 8,619,974 times
Reputation: 9094
Bottom of the market is seeing price declines. Nearly every house in Zillow from Roxbury Lawrence Brockton Stoughton and Avon has price cuts or price drops, especially in April. The bottom of the market HS been cooling for a while but I th ink at this point there's real price cuts. I looked at dozens of houses on Zillow and did not see ONE price increase in the aforementioned towns. Not one. I'd say 20% of the houses had seen a price cut. A good deal of homes in Brockton and Stoughton were going for less than 200k. Roxbury saw the most price cuts.
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Old 05-07-2019, 02:29 PM
 
1,303 posts, read 785,787 times
Reputation: 1657
There's a reason it's called The Big Short, not The Big Long.

Actually there's two reasons. The Big Long would have sounded too much like a porn movie.
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Old 05-07-2019, 07:27 PM
 
Location: NJ-CT
9,921 posts, read 5,222,683 times
Reputation: 8221
Quote:
Originally Posted by bugelrex View Post
I actully think the next boom will be from medical analytics. Big data analytics to improve healthcare costs... Amazon new healthcare venture in boston will drive this over the next 5 to 10 years...

However i think the overflow with occur in allston with new new Harvard construction project
Very true. I think the continuation of the Cambridge-Kendall Boom will keep Boston successful for many years.

Education
-The presence of Harvard, MIT, Northeastern, BU, BC, Suffolk, Tufts, Emerson, Berklee, Wentworth, etc in the 5 mile radius of Boston will help Boston win the competitive advantage of a having a highly educated populace and a constant pump of startups.

Kendall Square
-Kendall Square will continue to be home to Health/Medical Research/Bio Research. However, in the next 10 years I can see it adapting to a new wave of high tech/medical analytics/engineering companies and startups. Google, Facebook, Boeing, etc are some of many companies growing a presence in the area.
-The Volpe redevelopment area has the potential to throw up a 500ft tower (maybe even higher) which would spur a rigid core of development and extend the reach of the ever growing Kendall Square.

Seaport
-Seaport is only half built up. We still have Alexion, Amazon and many others to throw uptheir towers. I believe Parcel L4 (Amazon) is going vertical now. When L1, L2, L3, P and A2 go through we could see some pretty good looking developments with possible major tenants. Iirc, the South Station tower already has a major tenant... and thats not off the ground yet.

Bulfinch/West End Growth
-The Hub on Causeway, Garden Redevelopment, the Massive Bulfinch Crossing Towers and future developments of Haymarket area will allow infill and companies to move in closer to downtown. Verizon has already lesed space on Causeway.

Large Swaths of Empty/Barren Land Near Downtown
-Allston Yards, The I-93/I-90 interchange/Tow Lot, Mystic River Valley, South End, Suffolk Downs, etc are all areas that have LARGE areas of undeveloped land with great access to the CBD and beyond. These developments are sure to give us something enlightening to the city.

Office Occupancy Rates
The Office Vacancy Rate is ~1% in Cambridge and ~5% in Boston proper. This is Significantly below the national average of about 15-22% (Cant remember the exact number). Tenants are leasing office space as soon as a tower passes the approval stage. Companies all want a piece of Cambridge/Boston but cant get the space. Now we see Kendall Square Office prices rivaling Midtown Manhattan's.

These 6 Factors are really what continues to make Boston a very strong leader, and one to offset the worst of a *possible* recession.
recently performed a statistical analysis of self driven population projections, and see by 2030 Somerville, Quincy, and Lynn could all have over 100,000 residents. Cambridge could surpass 130,000. We need housing fast in Boston.
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Old 05-07-2019, 07:34 PM
 
Location: NJ-CT
9,921 posts, read 5,222,683 times
Reputation: 8221
Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
Bottom of the market is seeing price declines. Nearly every house in Zillow from Roxbury Lawrence Brockton Stoughton and Avon has price cuts or price drops, especially in April. The bottom of the market HS been cooling for a while but I th ink at this point there's real price cuts. I looked at dozens of houses on Zillow and did not see ONE price increase in the aforementioned towns. Not one. I'd say 20% of the houses had seen a price cut. A good deal of homes in Brockton and Stoughton were going for less than 200k. Roxbury saw the most price cuts.
I dont know how truth this holds. From Apr 2018 - Apr 2019, the average home price in Stoughton increased from 348k to 386k, courtesy of Zillow. I only see 5 homes on the market for under 230k too.
Roxbury too..
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Old 05-07-2019, 11:43 PM
 
Location: Ohio
2,296 posts, read 6,454,328 times
Reputation: 1938
Problem with developments in Boston is difficulty and lack of transparency with the city's permitting process. There may be lots of land, but it takes much longer to get something approved for construction than most other big cities.
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Old 05-08-2019, 01:18 PM
 
622 posts, read 487,031 times
Reputation: 240
Quote:
Originally Posted by masssachoicetts View Post
Very true. I think the continuation of the Cambridge-Kendall Boom will keep Boston successful for many years.

Education
-The presence of Harvard, MIT, Northeastern, BU, BC, Suffolk, Tufts, Emerson, Berklee, Wentworth, etc in the 5 mile radius of Boston will help Boston win the competitive advantage of a having a highly educated populace and a constant pump of startups.

Kendall Square
-Kendall Square will continue to be home to Health/Medical Research/Bio Research. However, in the next 10 years I can see it adapting to a new wave of high tech/medical analytics/engineering companies and startups. Google, Facebook, Boeing, etc are some of many companies growing a presence in the area.
-The Volpe redevelopment area has the potential to throw up a 500ft tower (maybe even higher) which would spur a rigid core of development and extend the reach of the ever growing Kendall Square.

Seaport
-Seaport is only half built up. We still have Alexion, Amazon and many others to throw uptheir towers. I believe Parcel L4 (Amazon) is going vertical now. When L1, L2, L3, P and A2 go through we could see some pretty good looking developments with possible major tenants. Iirc, the South Station tower already has a major tenant... and thats not off the ground yet.

Bulfinch/West End Growth
-The Hub on Causeway, Garden Redevelopment, the Massive Bulfinch Crossing Towers and future developments of Haymarket area will allow infill and companies to move in closer to downtown. Verizon has already lesed space on Causeway.

Large Swaths of Empty/Barren Land Near Downtown
-Allston Yards, The I-93/I-90 interchange/Tow Lot, Mystic River Valley, South End, Suffolk Downs, etc are all areas that have LARGE areas of undeveloped land with great access to the CBD and beyond. These developments are sure to give us something enlightening to the city.

Office Occupancy Rates
The Office Vacancy Rate is ~1% in Cambridge and ~5% in Boston proper. This is Significantly below the national average of about 15-22% (Cant remember the exact number). Tenants are leasing office space as soon as a tower passes the approval stage. Companies all want a piece of Cambridge/Boston but cant get the space. Now we see Kendall Square Office prices rivaling Midtown Manhattan's.

These 6 Factors are really what continues to make Boston a very strong leader, and one to offset the worst of a *possible* recession.
recently performed a statistical analysis of self driven population projections, and see by 2030 Somerville, Quincy, and Lynn could all have over 100,000 residents. Cambridge could surpass 130,000. We need housing fast in Boston.
I think you are failing to account for transportation. The highways, roads, and public transit networks are virtually unchanged since the big dig was completed. The transit system is pretty close to a breaking point already and this will put a ceiling on development in Boston and Cambridge proper. I'd argue we're pretty close to that ceiling already.

The development will likely start flooding outside of the city proper in a major way until the transportation networks can be right sized to support a larger city. This will require a massive investment several times the size and scope of the big dig.

If i had to put money on it I would wager this type of development is what you will see a lot more of in the coming decade. https://riversidenewton.com/ If we were Los Angeles, that would be firmly within city limits. Notice they are also building 500k sqfeet of office space as well? That might be an interesting opportunity for green line reverse commuting.

Last edited by panchilly; 05-08-2019 at 01:28 PM..
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Old 05-08-2019, 02:47 PM
 
3,808 posts, read 2,727,503 times
Reputation: 3330
Quote:
Originally Posted by htfdcolt View Post
So what's your view of the real estate market & trend in Woburn? Will it become the next Medford / Somerville under your scenario?
"next Medford"? I know prices are up, but nothing has dramatically improved in that town. Medford will be slaughtered in the next downtown, along with other pumped 'up and comers' like Woburn. Meanwhile, lower tier housing in towns like Lex will drop 5% tops. I've seen this game play out once over.
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Old 05-08-2019, 03:23 PM
 
Location: NYC/Boston/Fairfield CT
1,520 posts, read 1,599,765 times
Reputation: 1349
I’m preparing for a recession from a financial perspective, however I am not sure if it will occur this year, next year or 5 years from now. While the concept of business cycles is not lost on me, I no longer spend time projecting the next recession. Trump’s deregulation may have juiced the economy as someone else stated earlier, the tax cuts (which went unrecognized by vast swaths of taxpayers) also helped boost consumption. If Trump and Democrats can come up with an infrastructure spending bill (which, lets face it, is sorely needed) we may be able to continue to avert a possible recession.

Real Estate will decline in a recession, irrespective of what causes the downturn. People will lose their jobs and will be forced to sell their homes (at discounts), or lose them to foreclosure/short sale (unfortunately). In addition, it will be interesting to see if the recession is a worldwide phenomenon (it usually is) then international demand for Boston real estate will also decline, coupled with fewer newer buyers being able to qualify for mortgages/willing to purchase a home.

I hope I am wrong about what happens to the real estate market during recessions, however the data always seems to support the second paragraph. If you own a home, you need to have at least 12 months of living expenses (including mortgage payments) in the bank right now. Those who don’t will be negatively impacted by any future downturn.
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Old 05-08-2019, 03:44 PM
 
Location: NYC/Boston/Fairfield CT
1,520 posts, read 1,599,765 times
Reputation: 1349
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shrewsburried View Post
"next Medford"? I know prices are up, but nothing has dramatically improved in that town. Medford will be slaughtered in the next downtown, along with other pumped 'up and comers' like Woburn. Meanwhile, lower tier housing in towns like Lex will drop 5% tops. I've seen this game play out once over.
This spot on. People who have purchased homes with inflated values in non-blue chip communities will see some double digit declines. It’s a sad reality to see many well-meaning people “priced out” of desirable communities buy one or two town over thinking that values will hold in a downturn. Sadly the declines are usually greater than anticipated.

Blue Chip communities include Beacon Hill – Boston, Back Bay – Boston, Cambridge, Belmont, Brookline, Lexington, Wellesley, Weston and numerous others*

*Just thinking of a few areas on top of my mind. No need to be offended if your blue-chip community is not on the list.
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