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Old 07-07-2019, 09:02 AM
 
829 posts, read 361,105 times
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Dedham would be way better for BB/Downtown, but of course that would be via the commuter rail which has its own problems.
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Old 07-07-2019, 10:19 AM
 
601 posts, read 346,866 times
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Sakouretes,

On second thought, I think you may be on to something with your recommendation of Norwood, Dedham, Waltham, and Framingham.

Have you seen my jobs analysis tool that runs calculations against H1B job filing data? https://github.com/panchilly/ma-jobs-analyzer The results are very consistent with your statements.

These towns are all ranked very highly in terms of score per dollar of house.

#13 1.0248060856469627 MA,Billerica 19531.658497369554 0.04340368554971012
#14 1.0733696231306136 MA,Norwood 20457.22523905812 0.04306784260854341
#16 1.000808992319527 MA,Framingham 19074.300721722575 0.04219978035779331
#23 1.0902850185502977 MA,Dedham 20779.61376827598 0.04019267653438294
#33 1.1599714472076175 MA,Waltham 22107.759205250837 0.03639137317736763
#38 1.1622073733064646 MA,Natick 22150.373457449066 0.03544059753191851

Billerica, Norwood, Framingham, and Dedham score very highly per dollar of house since they offer good job access but very cheap home prices. I was very surprised when i browsed Redfin and saw the prices in each of these towns.
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Old 07-07-2019, 04:28 PM
 
601 posts, read 346,866 times
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Sakouretes,

I also think you could use a bit of a geography lesson. For someone who lives in weston you should know the lay of the land better. Did you recently move to massachusetts?

I find it funny that you claim Weston has value, Dover has value, and yet Natick doesn't? Weston and Dover, even if they aren't currently in favor as much as they were 10 and 20 years ago, are still solidly tier 1 towns and are extremely expensive. As you mentioned, 1.2M is the low end for Weston and its competitive to get a house at that price there.

Have you seen how close Natick is to Weston and Dover?



The two dots in red are what i feel are the best spots to buy a house in Natick. In south natick, you have large lots and a beautiful semi rural feel but at a fraction of the Dover price. But your commute from South Natick will actually BEAT dover in most cases.

The north dot will give you a more dense suburban feel (similar to Wellesley, Needham, etc) and will give great flexibility on the driving commute in all 4 directions. For 128 north commutes i have found there is a great trick of going through back roads through Weston during rush hour to beat some gridlock. You are getting a location here very similar to the southwest corner of Weston and the west side of Wellesley at a huge discount. You aren't giving up much in schools or commute either...

Last edited by panchilly; 07-07-2019 at 04:42 PM..
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Old 07-07-2019, 08:06 PM
 
4 posts, read 2,282 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
Sakouretes,

On second thought, I think you may be on to something with your recommendation of Norwood, Dedham, Waltham, and Framingham.

Have you seen my jobs analysis tool that runs calculations against H1B job filing data? https://github.com/panchilly/ma-jobs-analyzer The results are very consistent with your statements.

These towns are all ranked very highly in terms of score per dollar of house.

#13 1.0248060856469627 MA,Billerica 19531.658497369554 0.04340368554971012
#14 1.0733696231306136 MA,Norwood 20457.22523905812 0.04306784260854341
#16 1.000808992319527 MA,Framingham 19074.300721722575 0.04219978035779331
#23 1.0902850185502977 MA,Dedham 20779.61376827598 0.04019267653438294
#33 1.1599714472076175 MA,Waltham 22107.759205250837 0.03639137317736763
#38 1.1622073733064646 MA,Natick 22150.373457449066 0.03544059753191851

Billerica, Norwood, Framingham, and Dedham score very highly per dollar of house since they offer good job access but very cheap home prices. I was very surprised when i browsed Redfin and saw the prices in each of these towns.
Yes Ive seen that analysis and the reason im here is I find your approach very promising. Though i would recommend, instead of using H1B which over represents certain class of employment, to use granular data instead. You can look at:
Where Are The Jobs?
https://www.ctps.org/data/calendar/h...iciencies.html

For the study commissioned by the MBTA go down to 3.3.2 for the visualization; for the dot map unfortunately I dont know how to export their data for analysis (and Im not nearly skilled enough with computers to suggest how)

I would very much be interested in what you might dig up with it.

Now as much it is your pet peeve, Im not here to fight you about Natick, lets just say Ive driven these mythical "weston back roads" for years, and the Wellesley st/Newton Street merge, Church st, 117, R-20, Park rd bridge etc.. are some of the most treacherous roads in metrowest. The entire commuter traffic of north Wayland and Sudbury are carried on these roads. In fact I would claim the best part of Natick commute is that it has its own Masspike exit. (yes i would rather do Speen St. than "weston back roads".

I know very well how close Natick is, but the difference in their quality is so huge you can tell when you cross the town lines with your eyes shut. Just totally discounting the housing stock, Weston/Dover are simply on another level of leafiness, setback, and low density; These things take decades to change. The "value" in Weston/Dover is relative to Wellesley/Comm ave Newton/Lexington/Needham etc, people looking looking in Natick generally wont look in the aforementioned towns, and therefore there is no direct competition. The relative value of Natick can't be easily compared to the value of Weston/Dover as you would be buying vastly different kind of properties, with very different math behind the decision. (equity prices/liquidity vs affordability/mortgage)

The better toss up, as the topic suggests, is indeed Natick vs Burlington/Reading/Woburn
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Old 07-08-2019, 06:38 AM
 
5,303 posts, read 4,116,347 times
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I don’t think the people looking to buy in Dover or Wellesley will ever consider Natick, which is a perfectly nice townin it’s own right. But the reality is that those who can afford and want to live on these towns wouldn’t think of natick as a viable or acceptable substitute. That’s just the way it is. But it doesn’t mean that natick does not benefit from its proximity to those towns.
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Old 07-08-2019, 08:17 AM
 
601 posts, read 346,866 times
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Sakouretes and pennyone,

I think you both are not understanding what value means. It may be helpful for you to separate the fundamental drivers of gentrification from the second order effects.

Fundamentals: proximity to high paying jobs (this is the big one), highways, transit, amenities
Second order effects: Gentrification of town, gentrification of school district, quality of housing stock improving

When i see Weston and Wellesley i think second order effects. These towns are examples of gentrification reaching a maximum. You are both right - they are on another level right now in terms of these superficial qualities and there is a step function difference in PPSQFT as you walk over the border into Natick. An identical house in Wellesley just on the border of Natick could be a 40-50% increase in price for a near identical location fundamentals. These step functions are unnatural and i would expect over time it would become a more smooth transition.

At this point, given the much higher prices in Wellesley and Weston the value is higher in Natick. You get a better commute per dollar living in Natick than you do it Wellesley. As an example to illustrate this point: one of the routes i take to work i drive by a newer construction home (teardown) in Wellesley and it consistently takes me 3min to get there during rush hour. In other words, the commute difference for that house is a maximum of 3min difference. The price per square foot of that house is a 50% increase. I don't think it's worth the 3 minutes for the massive hike in price.

I also don't agree that you don't have cross shopping or competition between the two towns. Everything is always in competition. I know a family in their early 40s who recently moved to south Natick with both parents working in management at tech firms in Boston. Household income is probably in excess of 400k. They bought in south natick for about 1.2M. Very nice house but they could have easily gotten something in Wellesley for 1.2M but it would be much lower in quality. They could have gotten a starter home for 1M for instance, less than the price they paid. But instead they went with the lower PPSQFT in Natick and didn't give up much in school quality or commute quality. 20 years ago these types of families wouldn't have moved to Natick but prices have gone up so much that more and more of the wellesley and newton types are winding up here.

The value (commute per dollar) is much better in Natick right now compared to Wellesley/Weston. Natick commute per dollar KILLS Dover since both absolute commutes and prices are lower in Natick over Dover.

Over long periods of time (20+ years) the market will work itself out and you'll see a lot more gentrification & appreciation in Natick than you will in Weston/Wellesley/Dover.
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Old 07-08-2019, 08:29 AM
 
Location: Massachusetts & Hilton Head, SC
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Natick is never going to be on the same level as those towns. It's just a totally different atmosphere.
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:11 AM
 
Location: New England
2,190 posts, read 1,644,138 times
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Burlington has good access to 128 jobs, but poor access to Boston jobs. Natick has ok access to both.
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:37 AM
 
13,459 posts, read 10,224,981 times
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Originally Posted by yesmaybe View Post
Dedham would be way better for BB/Downtown, but of course that would be via the commuter rail which has its own problems.
But some parts of Dedham you also have bus access to Forest Hills among options. It's just more connected to the city than these other places. Now if you are commuting to 495 or 128 N, that's where it is at a significant disadvantage.
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:39 AM
 
13,459 posts, read 10,224,981 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post

The two dots in red are what i feel are the best spots to buy a house in Natick. In south natick, you have large lots and a beautiful semi rural feel but at a fraction of the Dover price. But your commute from South Natick will actually BEAT dover in most cases.

The north dot will give you a more dense suburban feel (similar to Wellesley, Needham, etc) and will give great flexibility on the driving commute in all 4 directions. For 128 north commutes i have found there is a great trick of going through back roads through Weston during rush hour to beat some gridlock. You are getting a location here very similar to the southwest corner of Weston and the west side of Wellesley at a huge discount. You aren't giving up much in schools or commute either...
South Natick is such a chore to commute from though. It has the same disadvantages of Dover/Sherborn, etc. "You can't get there from here".
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