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Old 06-23-2019, 09:30 PM
3,808 posts, read 2,758,699 times
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Originally Posted by smc733 View Post

There are tons of articles, here's one example, showing that the US domestic birth rate is not keeping up with the level needed to replace the population, just like what's happening in Japan.
The U.S. has fallen short of replacement rate since the early 1970s and yet here we are - in a housing shortage.

Regardless, when I stated "long", I meant one should not buy now with the expectation to break even or profit within a 5 year window. Millenials and gen Z demand, in tandem with gen X and boomers aging in place will absorb the housing in in-demand job markets like eastern MA. Look a population distribution chart and tell me otherwise.

I'm not seeing a major drop off in the next 10-15 years, are you? If replacements rates and/or immigration doesn't bump up soon, we could and likely will see a dip in demand by the late 2030's. Whether MA sees a dip in demand depends on U.S. brain-drain trends and global migrant demand.

Additionally, the U.S. is NOT Japan based on recent and current replacement rates or it's immigration policy (Japan is insular with a migrant rate of 2% vs. the U.S. at 15%), so comparing the two is meaningless. Additionally, the birth rate drop is heavily influence by huge declines teen pregnancies and does not accurately capture the larger macro trend: rates among the 30+ crowd are up, suggesting intent remains, albeit delayed.
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