Is waiting for home prices to come down pointless? (Boston: 2015, foreclosures)

[RBThescot]

Originally Posted by panchilly

You are concerned that the Boston suburbs will de-gentrify? There has been nothing but gentrification for the past 40+ years I don’t see that stopping any time soon.

I think you have nothing to be concerned about. There is no evidence of an imminent depopulation it’s actually the opposite, everything points to a steady increase in metro pop. . I think you are better off buying now and staying for 7+ years rather than trying to time the market. So many people tried to time the last downturn and ended up on the sidelines for too long and ended up missing the bottom by a lot. Rates are really low too so you have an excellent inflation hedge if that happens

Agree 100 %.

Real estate is like surfing. When the market is strong, everyone rides the wave up. When the market softens, everyone rides the wave down. If you're not in the game, then you're not winning or losing in the game. Therefore, buy when you can.

A lot of people pat themselves on the back, and think "aren't I such a smart boy," when they've been lucky to buy low and sell high and come out way ahead. It's definitely advantageous to be well informed but few people can predict the future accurately, despite the messaging they get from their ego.

It's my observation that many start out already ahead because they have baseline money to get in the game - trust fund money, inherited money, grandparent money, lawsuit money, bar mitzvah money, etc. They profit more in the up turn and survive the down market better but not through wisdom or being able to predict the future.

Not everyone wants to own their own house. I have friends in their 70's and 80's who have rented all their lives. There are smart ways to rent that provide stability. But if you want to own, then buy when you can, where you can have the lifestyle you want long term, and ride the wave

[495neighbor]

I looked at everything below 400K, everywhere in 2012, the bottom of the Boston re market and don't recall an excess of single family homes, at that point. So to answer the OPs question, now could be just as good a time as any.

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by RBThescot

A lot of people pat themselves on the back, and think "aren't I such a smart boy," when they've been lucky to buy low and sell high and come out way ahead. It's definitely advantageous to be well informed but few people can predict the future accurately, despite the messaging they get from their ego.

True, but there are times when it is so obviously risky. 2005 was one of them, now is one of them, especially here in the GBA in the non-millenial friendly areas.

[495neighbor]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

Well, the example I can give is Acton. The town so far has avoided depopulation due to the influx of Chinese, but I have doubts it's sustainable. People are obviously doing it, but life would be rough if you lived there and your only job options were Kendall or any part of Boston.

Insulet's growth should bolster Acton's real estate prices. Most of my neighbors were Burlington, Bedford, Lexington, Waltham and Cambridge commuters when I lived there. Seaport and DT Boston, not so much. Lots of IT, engineer people, not a lot of attorneys, doctors, professional service folks. And every other person seemed to be registering a patent for something.

[brk330]

Originally Posted by chicagoliz

For me, Acton is WAY too far out.

For me, Acton is the edge of how far IN I would go.

This whole thread I keep checking to see if I'm in the Boston forum by mistake.

[MassVt]

Originally Posted by RBThescot

Agree 100 %.

Real estate is like surfing. When the market is strong, everyone rides the wave up. When the market softens, everyone rides the wave down. If you're not in the game, then you're not winning or losing in the game. Therefore, buy when you can.

A lot of people pat themselves on the back, and think "aren't I such a smart boy," when they've been lucky to buy low and sell high and come out way ahead. It's definitely advantageous to be well informed but few people can predict the future accurately, despite the messaging they get from their ego.

It's my observation that many start out already ahead because they have baseline money to get in the game - trust fund money, inherited money, grandparent money, lawsuit money, bar mitzvah money, etc. They profit more in the up turn and survive the down market better but not through wisdom or being able to predict the future.

Not everyone wants to own their own house. I have friends in their 70's and 80's who have rented all their lives. There are smart ways to rent that provide stability. But if you want to own, then buy when you can, where you can have the lifestyle you want long term, and ride the wave

Finally, a rational post, amongst all the self-described real estate "experts"..

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by MassVt

Finally, a rational post, amongst all the self-described real estate "experts"..

Not really. Residential real estate is discretionary spending that is supposed to improve your quality of life. If you want to maximize for wealth building, you live in a tiny studio apartment in a sketchy place for cheap money and invest the rest in the market. Massachusetts has a big pile of very affluent people who think their quality of life is improved by living in some cool urban place or the gold plated suburban house with the easy commute to work. There's limited supply for that kind of property and tons of demand when the economy is strong. The "experts" are looking in their metro Boston economic crystal ball speculating about what the economy will look like in the future and how that correlates to the demand for real estate. My guess about future economic conditions is as error prone as everyone else. History tells us we're going to have a recession eventually but the when and the how severe is darts at the dartboard.

[BosYuppie]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Not really. Residential real estate is discretionary spending that is supposed to improve your quality of life. If you want to maximize for wealth building, you live in a tiny studio apartment in a sketchy place for cheap money and invest the rest in the market.

A great poet and philosopher once asked... "What you think I rap for? To push a F'in RAV-4?"

[johngolf]

I am the first to agree with RB about timing. I moved around the country based on who I worked for. I never gave real estate cost a thought. It was what it was going to be and the job mattered the most. I moved to MA in the mid 80's and bought a house in Andover for $100K. Sold it in 92 for $200K. Bought in North Reading for $200K. Sold it in 2001 for $475K. I never anticipated that.

Presently own a small patio home in Columbia SC. Bought for $132K in 2012. Now worth only $155K. Tremendous growth where I am but plenty of land for new builds thus little increase in value for existing homes but I am far from complaining.

[RBThescot]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Not really. Residential real estate is discretionary spending that is supposed to improve your quality of life. If you want to maximize for wealth building, you live in a tiny studio apartment in a sketchy place for cheap money and invest the rest in the market.

It depends on how you define "wealth." If I lived like you propose I'd be miserable, my spouse would leave me, my children would hate me, my friends would avoid me and my dog would run away to join the circus.

Money is a measurement tool. It has no real value other than to trade for things.

I'm recalling a book I read 25 years ago, "Money and the Meaning of Life" by Jacob Needelman. Just a suggestion.