Massachusetts population growth slowing tremendously (Boston, Worcester: buyer, colleges, closing)

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Your "thesis" does not reflect any historical trends. If the population of Boston grows without significant new housing, the 'burbs will grow with it.

I imagine the % of people doing the roommates thing will continue to climb, and if need be the # of roommates per household. I don't know what cohousing laws Boston has, but they will be ignored anyway.

I'd expect any manufacturing still in GBA to leave soon enough, mostly overseas or perhaps somewhere in the Southern US.

[masssachoicetts]

I don't know where Marty and Baker plan to put all these affordable housing units and market-rate units. Is there an area of GBA outside of the South End and Seaport that support the growth and development of their area, without intense NIMBY backlash?

[johngolf]

Originally Posted by masssachoicetts

I don't know where Marty and Baker plan to put all these affordable housing units and market-rate units. Is there an area of GBA outside of the South End and Seaport that support the growth and development of their area, without intense NIMBY backlash?

While I no longer live there I do visit and know my way around. There are large areas in Roxbury, Dorchester, etc that could be leveled and the neighbors would welcome affordable housing versus what is their now. Beacon Hill no, but still other areas.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by masssachoicetts

I don't know where Marty and Baker plan to put all these affordable housing units and market-rate units. Is there an area of GBA outside of the South End and Seaport that support the growth and development of their area, without intense NIMBY backlash?

Much of Hyde Park West Roxbury in Boston and to the south Holbrook, Avon, Rockland, Brockton Dedham has open space and/or used car lots, light industrial, underutilized strip plazas, and junkyards that are developable and wouldn’t cause too much of a stir. Tons of room for this is Hyde Park alone and in the area just south of the Blue Hills.

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

I imagine the % of people doing the roommates thing will continue to climb, and if need be the # of roommates per household. I don't know what cohousing laws Boston has, but they will be ignored anyway.

I'd expect any manufacturing still in GBA to leave soon enough, mostly overseas or perhaps somewhere in the Southern US.

As long as you don't play the lottery, it's all good.

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

Much of Hyde Park West Roxbury in Boston and to the south Holbrook, Avon, Rockland, Brockton Dedham has open space and/or used car lots, light industrial, underutilized strip plazas, and junkyards that are developable and wouldn’t cause too much of a stir. Tons of room for this is Hyde Park alone and in the area just south of the Blue Hills.

I think you might get some pushback in Dedham, but Hyde Park and West Roxbury are at least in Boston.

They should really electrify the Fairmont line.

[mdovell]

Uh most manufacturers in Maas are in western mass. Add in CT and in New England is western mass and western ct. The cost of real estate is too much for directly in Boston. Pfizer is in the Lawrence area, north Boston for this very reason

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by mdovell

Uh most manufacturers in Maas are in western mass. Add in CT and in New England is western mass and western ct. The cost of real estate is too much for directly in Boston. Pfizer is in the Lawrence area, north Boston for this very reason

High production, yes.

This said, there are hundreds of R&D sites developing multiple platforms in tandem which require massive square footage. You don’t commercialize large scale systems in Kendall Square, or its at least a poor use of capital. Some of my client sites have 15k sqft or more of prototyping space (e.g., cnc systems and/or small scale molding, assembly and testing spaces, etc.). Often these sites are also doing small scale manufacturing or assembly because they’re shipping low volume high value products and/or clinical/animal study units ... either requires skilled labor on site and lots of sqft with good distribution access.

In my 12+ years of hardware, only a handful of real deal R&D sites have been within the metro. Most are along 128/93/495 or southern NH and southern CT. Metro has been mostly startups or corporate groups hoping to emulate startup culture, few of which had strong R&D capabilities in house - for that they were leveraging external partners or larger corporate R&D sites not in the metro.

[GeoffD]

I’d think that the EMC part of Dell on 495 does a lot of manufacturing on site for the big rack mounted stuff. That’s a $75 billion division.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

I’d think that the EMC part of Dell on 495 does a lot of manufacturing on site for the big rack mounted stuff. That’s a $75 billion division.

Yeah, they're a bit of an outlier in terms of scale, though I'm sure many of their systems require skilled assembly ... something MA has a surplus of seeing as our public schools actually teach critical thinking.

My larger point is that, despite manufacturing clearly not being MA's core economy, the state maintains ample number of boutique manufacturing/assembly sites which do create job opportunities not seen in truly rural parts of this country including large swaths of central CT, VT, NH, NY, etc.

Hell, my podunk central MA neighborhood, best known for it's "world class" corn maze, has an array of manufacturing including: multiple injection molders and/or toolmakers for prototyping/biotech/military/aerospace, an aerospace systems company, industrial/commercial cable manufacturing, and an array of other industrial/commercial operations. All of these operations are likely employing some degree of QC/Regulatory managers/directors, ME/EE managers/directors, MEs. etc. I'm doubtful any of these positions pay less than six figures which, given COL in the area, can realistically support a modest household on a single income. Add an SO with a middling admin or teaching position and now you're support $450K+ real estate.

Obviously Boston dominates the economy, but those thinking it's the sole reason RE remains expensive well into Worcester county are naive to what exists beyond their ivory tower.