Summer traffic could be nuts (Boston: deal, park, metro)

[id77]

Originally Posted by mdovell

Get a mallox folks it's one of those days. The markets are taking a hit but this is weird. Anyways Russia and Saudi arabia are having a pissing contest with oil and it's plunging about 17%.

At this point we might see oil at 19 year lows. Remember that time post 9/11 that winter how low things got? about that price level. I can see under $2 a gallon and maybe under $1.50 if it really gets bad.

So that coupled with coronavirus...

If flights are restricted and trains (Acela down...mbta?) the only recourse is drive.

Dirt cheap gas and restrictions on other ways to get there are going to create much more in traffic.

In some ways this is going to be a great year to go RV'ing cross country on the cheap. But if you are stuck in daily traffic in the 128 belt that hell is going to get hotter.

I don't expect any government-imposed restrictions on air/train travel after the initial irrational hysteria passes. We're already past the point of no return on containment anyway, so there's nothing to be gained from restricting only certain types of travel. It's out there, period. You can hide in your house for 6 months and just get exposed to it when you come out.

The only difference now is there's 1 million and 1 ways to die, even if the newest way is turning out to be rather selective in who it chooses to kill.

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by id77

I don't expect any government-imposed restrictions on air/train travel after the initial irrational hysteria passes. We're already past the point of no return on containment anyway, so there's nothing to be gained from restricting only certain types of travel. It's out there, period. You can hide in your house for 6 months and just get exposed to it when you come out.

The only difference now is there's 1 million and 1 ways to die, even if the newest way is turning out to be rather selective in who it chooses to kill.

The thing is that there's a few factors here.

1) Unless someone is tested it is hard to determine if someone has the flu or this. I'd argue the flu kills much more but this spreads faster

2) Not everyone that has it shows it. So if someone seems health should they be restricted from traveling or not? The major indicators of dying seem to be mostly from the very old, smokers/vapers, those with compromised immunity etc. Why that is we're trying to figure out

3) New cases might not mean really new but recently tested and found positive. At the same point if we go by the John Hopkins numbers we see that those that have it as a percentage that caught and have not yet healed is about 40%

Of course there could be the option of testing people at transit areas to tell them if they could or could not get on but that would slow things down dramatically. The real resource would be to tell those most likely to get it and die (see #2) to stay home. How do you tell or mandate the elderly to stay home and have it not be a protected class violation?

I'm about 40. Usually I don't get sick but a number of years ago I think I had the flu. I didn't spread it but a coworker of mine said I looked like I was about to pass out. It took a half week. Earlier this year I had a work client not speak to me (by email and phone) for about three weeks. We argue a tad so I thought she was ignoring me. Well her office is wedged between where they found the virus in western mass and found it in southern vermont...yeah I think she probably had it.

[BostonMike7]

Even in mild cases, it doesn’t seem like a fun time. From what I read, they consider anything not requiring supplemental oxygen to be mild. That can be a sniffle for some, and on your back coughing up a lung for others.

Regardless, I don’t want to get it.

But back in early feb, I did have a sore throat, cough and mild fever for 2 days. But then again it could be any of the other virus circulating around out there.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by mdovell

3) New cases might not mean really new but recently tested and found positive. At the same point if we go by the John Hopkins numbers we see that those that have it as a percentage that caught and have not yet healed is about 40%

This is worth repeating. The drastic spikes in numbers (like 28 today in MA vs. 15 yesterday) are a reflection of testing, not infections. It's not as if 13 people got it today that didn't have it yesterday. As testing catches up, there will be a big rise. And likely, a big increase in "recovered" statistics as well.

[Bridge781]

The thing that seems silly to me is that many places are cancelling meetings, conferences and retreats. Large gatherings basically. To really stop the spread it seems like companies have to tell people to work from home. Most employees are coming in on public transportation where they are exposed to hundreds. Why just cancel meetings? Have people work from home I say.

[id77]

Originally Posted by mdovell

The thing is that there's a few factors here.

1) Unless someone is tested it is hard to determine if someone has the flu or this. I'd argue the flu kills much more but this spreads faster

2) Not everyone that has it shows it. So if someone seems health should they be restricted from traveling or not? The major indicators of dying seem to be mostly from the very old, smokers/vapers, those with compromised immunity etc. Why that is we're trying to figure out

3) New cases might not mean really new but recently tested and found positive. At the same point if we go by the John Hopkins numbers we see that those that have it as a percentage that caught and have not yet healed is about 40%

Of course there could be the option of testing people at transit areas to tell them if they could or could not get on but that would slow things down dramatically. The real resource would be to tell those most likely to get it and die (see #2) to stay home. How do you tell or mandate the elderly to stay home and have it not be a protected class violation?

I'm about 40. Usually I don't get sick but a number of years ago I think I had the flu. I didn't spread it but a coworker of mine said I looked like I was about to pass out. It took a half week. Earlier this year I had a work client not speak to me (by email and phone) for about three weeks. We argue a tad so I thought she was ignoring me. Well her office is wedged between where they found the virus in western mass and found it in southern vermont...yeah I think she probably had it.

I agree, which is why I don’t see any travel bans coming. It’s already more prevalent than we know; in fact, there’s a nonzero chance I have it right now and don’t know it. I’ve been around people who’ve recently been to IT and, given where I live, probably around other people likely to be carriers.

Being scared changes nothing, so I’m not.

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by id77

Being scared changes nothing, so I’m not.

Exactly. Serenity prayer thinking. Me freaking out does nothing except make me miserable, so, don't do it.


Only think I'm bummed about is that I didn't wait to buy an international flight. Its a couple of hundred cheaper now than when I purchased it.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

I hope it slows down by summer....but I don't think it will be over. Somewhere out there someone will still be sick. Come fall it will be back. Hopefully by then, more research and testing has provided us with more effective treatments and maybe an expedited vaccine will soon be available?


Interesting times to be alive.

I'd point out that the common cold is a coronavirus. You can't get a vaccine for that. They might be able to create a vaccine. Maybe not. Personally, I think the most important thing is mass testing at low or no cost. The Koreans set up drive-thru test centers. We should have tens of thousands of those and the equipment to quickly process all the tests. Once you know someone has it, you can isolate them so the disease doesn't spread.

[matrix5k]

I have already noticed more traffic lately now that's it's warm. There used to be hardly any cars on the road at 8pm or later, but now that it's warm and bright there are many people out and about, especially last night. Last fall I didn't notice any less people outside during the EEE scare, so I doubt people will stay inside this summer. There's already motorcycles on the road. People love their cars.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

I'd point out that the common cold is a coronavirus. You can't get a vaccine for that. They might be able to create a vaccine. Maybe not.

I think the reason there's no vaccine for the common cold is simply because of economics. Is there demand for one? Most people just deal with it and that's it. Mortality rate is probably extremely low, if there is one at all. I can't see a company spending millions to develop a vaccine with little to no ROI and a lot of liability if their vaccine kills someone. Sometimes the gov't subsidized the research, but again, I don't see the urgency with the common cold coronavirus.

Now, a vaccine for SARS was developed, but SARS kinda fizzled out before there was any urgency to produce it, so it was never scaled up or distributed.

In this case, there is urgency, there is gov't backing (if necessary) and given the amount of potential doses that may be needed, there is an ROI. I would also imagine any such company developing one would get a huge PR boost.