Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Brockton, Holyoke, Easton: trash, drugs, patients)

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

I think the risk might be worth it.

The latest model has been revised upwards to almost 100K deaths during wave #1, which is current through June/July. Peak of around 3000-3500 deaths per day

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...cid=spartanntp

The article briefly mentions a 2nd wave in the fall. I know it's been mentioned a few times in various articles. Historically, with the last 3 major pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968) there have been 2 waves of the illness. In all 3 cases, the 2nd wave was deadlier.

My totally unfounded opinion is that this estimate is low. The transmission rate will be fairly low in the affluent, educated parts of the country. Williamson County and Nashville in Middle Tennessee will be low. The rest of the state will be high. Huntsville and Birmingham will be pretty low. The rest of Alabama high. Atlanta low, particularly the northern suburbs. Most of the rest of Georgia high. In Florida, the affluent coastal places should be pretty low. The interior and panhandle won't look like that. Those places are also far less healthy and generally have lower quality health care.

[Bridge781]

Dolly Parton donated a million too

[id77]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

The point isn't to question my hypothetical (that's why it's a hypothetical), the point is to accurately assess your own personal risk tolerance. You can, of course, question the premise, but that's a different problem. Experts think that letting the disease spread naturally will increase the mortality (of the disease, and generally from other stuff, as the hospitals will be overloaded).

So, here's a premise you can't question because it's entirely artificial. An executioner has a 50 chamber revolver. He puts one bullet in it. How much would you be willing to pay him not to shot you?

Still $0. I'll take my chances and if I lose, all the more money for my heirs. Artificially speaking, I don't negotiate with terrorists.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

My totally unfounded opinion is that this estimate is low. The transmission rate will be fairly low in the affluent, educated parts of the country. Williamson County and Nashville in Middle Tennessee will be low. The rest of the state will be high. Huntsville and Birmingham will be pretty low. The rest of Alabama high. Atlanta low, particularly the northern suburbs. Most of the rest of Georgia high. In Florida, the affluent coastal places should be pretty low. The interior and panhandle won't look like that. Those places are also far less healthy and generally have lower quality health care.

I agree with that logic.


By the same logic, poorer countries around the globe are going to get rocked by this. I can only imagine what the global reported death toll will be.

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by id77

Still $0. I'll take my chances and if I lose, all the more money for my heirs. Artificially speaking, I don't negotiate with terrorists.

Ok. I guess that explains a lot. You value your life at $0.

[BostonMike7]

Number of new cases for MA: 1228
Number of deaths:32


Detailed breakdown for today (APril 2nd)
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-ca...-2020/download

Here's the detailed breakdown for yesterday (APril 1).
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-ca...-2020/download


Case count:

3/18 -38
3/19 -72
3/20 - 79
3/21 - 116
3/22 - 123
3/23 - 131
3/24 - 382
3/25 - 679
3/26 - 563
3/27 - 787
3/28 - 1016
3/29 - 698
3/30 - 768
3/31 - 868
4/1 - 1118
4/2 - 1228

[mdovell]

Here's a question. Any rents dropping yet?

I'm seeing more units go out on the market. Saw and ad that since the students left they have April, May, June, July and some of August before they return. Going months without tenants is going to be costly.

The democrats just delayed their convention a month. That's thousands of people at the same area. Now if they don't think this will be normal in July.... (politics aside I'm just thinking of large gatherings of people. the republican one is late August).

First I thought the students wouldn't be going back to public school for the remainder of this year. Now I'm thinking that this summer might not be a thing.

Jacobs Pillow is cancelled. https://www.masslive.com/entertainme...-salaries.html

In terms of the arts the big one is the BSO. If they cancel for 4th of July and Tanglewood that pretty much sets the tone for the rest of the summer.

School systems and academia generally have people in buildings by around mid August. Administrators, custodial staff all have to coordinate to have buildings safe. That call is going to have to be made by the presidents, executive directors, superintendents etc in July. Do we think the schools will Ok by then? If so how? How are we going to have public transit? Music concerts? Conventions? Conferences? Casinos? At this point there should be state commissions by the building superintendents, health departments and fire departments to make schedules.

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

My totally unfounded opinion is that this estimate is low. The transmission rate will be fairly low in the affluent, educated parts of the country. Williamson County and Nashville in Middle Tennessee will be low. The rest of the state will be high. Huntsville and Birmingham will be pretty low. The rest of Alabama high. Atlanta low, particularly the northern suburbs. Most of the rest of Georgia high. In Florida, the affluent coastal places should be pretty low. The interior and panhandle won't look like that. Those places are also far less healthy and generally have lower quality health care.

I don't think it's a income level issue. There's plenty of affluent people in Manhattan that are trying to bug out and head to the hamptons and hudson valley fully knowing that makes things worse. Heck right now I'd argue Boston has at least four times as many people as springfield and yet the rate currently is 10x the amount of Springfield.

https://www.masslive.com/coronavirus...ases-rise.html

"There are 130 known coronavirus cases in Springfield, as of Thursday"

https://dashboard.cityofboston.gov/t...tal=y&:embed=y

1,233 cases in Boston

Median household income is easily twice as much in Boston.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._United_States

The most affluent county in the US easily has this
https://www.loudountimes.com/news/ap...fc668b10c.html

"Loudoun County now has at least 105 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, an increase of 18 from Tuesday, according to the latest figures released by the state."

So that's a 5x fold increase in two days.

Some of the highest populated areas in the country are in the north east corridor along with wealth.

[Bridge781]

It started with the affluent people in Boston. Biogen leadership.

[brightdoglover]

Such a pandemic is going to show up first in people who fly around and travel for personal or business reasons, of course. Unless poor people are flying around, it will be first linked to people who can afford to fly. In Boston, it could be any number of people who fly, students, tourists, business interests. I have no doubt that infected asymptomatic people on any airplane are prime sources of transmission.