Coronavirus in Massachusetts (home, university, calculation)

[charolastra00]

Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns

The CDC estimates that 99.92% of people who have been infected in my age group (18-49) survive (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...es/burden.html).

That's how I've come to the conclusion that the virus is minimal-risk for me. Not from a "concerted disinformation campaign." Unless you think the CDC's stats on survivability are intentionally wrong...

Part of the misinformation campaign has been to focus solely on survival.


Yes, only a small portion of people die. Various studies say as many as 50% of people have physical and psychological impacts for at least 6 months. My biggest data point is the sheer number of students at the university I work for who now need housing accommodations. Our older dorms don't have elevators, and we have dozens of students with documentation from doctors saying they need to live on the 1st floor because they now struggle to climb stairs post-covid. If it's that bad long term for so many young people, that's cause for serious, serious alarm.

[OutdoorLover]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

I think most folks here agree with you as pretty much everyone is continuing to wear them, even if not required.

Everyone wears masks in my office - a small pharma company. They take them off if eating or drinking, or alone in a conference room, but otherwise, all are masked these days, and that's on top of the company vaccination mandate. Scientists are just not keen on catching Covid-19.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns

The CDC estimates that 99.92% of people who have been infected in my age group (18-49) survive (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...es/burden.html).

That's how I've come to the conclusion that the virus is minimal-risk for me. Not from a "concerted disinformation campaign." Unless you think the CDC's stats on survivability are intentionally wrong...

That's an awfully large age group. You may have minimal risk if you're 19 and healthy. But if you're 45 and overweight, it could be a very different story.

[YevTK]

Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns

The CDC estimates that 99.92% of people who have been infected in my age group (18-49) survive (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...es/burden.html).

That's how I've come to the conclusion that the virus is minimal-risk for me. Not from a "concerted disinformation campaign." Unless you think the CDC's stats on survivability are intentionally wrong...

Looking at the data:

You have a 1 in 38 chance of being hospitalized.

You have a 1 in 1,250 risk of dying.

The CDC figures include both vaccinated and unvaccinated people so the unvaccinated risk is higher. The risk is also higher the closer you are to the end of the age range.

Overall, this adds about a 20% higher risk of death over the baseline for an 18-49 year-old.

All you have to do to dramatically reduce these risks is to get fully vaccinated, something that has already occurred 4,959,190 times in MA and 200,717,387 times in the USA.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...vaccine-status

[rach5]

Originally Posted by charolastra00

Part of the misinformation campaign has been to focus solely on survival.


Yes, only a small portion of people die. Various studies say as many as 50% of people have physical and psychological impacts for at least 6 months. My biggest data point is the sheer number of students at the university I work for who now need housing accommodations. Our older dorms don't have elevators, and we have dozens of students with documentation from doctors saying they need to live on the 1st floor because they now struggle to climb stairs post-covid. If it's that bad long term for so many young people, that's cause for serious, serious alarm.

This is interesting and very disconcerting. Did your university have a vaccination requirement?

[msRB311]

That seems crazy to me about all these college students you're saying need to live on the first floor because of covid. Sounds like a bunch of people who probably need(ed) to live a healthier lifestyle.

[tribecavsbrowns]

Originally Posted by YevTK

Looking at the data:

You have a 1 in 38 chance of being hospitalized.

You have a 1 in 1,250 risk of dying.

The CDC figures include both vaccinated and unvaccinated people so the unvaccinated risk is higher. The risk is also higher the closer you are to the end of the age range.

Overall, this adds about a 20% higher risk of death over the baseline for an 18-49 year-old.

All you have to do to dramatically reduce these risks is to get fully vaccinated, something that has already occurred 4,959,190 times in MA and 200,717,387 times in the USA.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...vaccine-status

Yeah, 0.08%. I already said that.

Correct that the figure includes vaccinated and unvaccinated people, but I am almost certain that the survivability was 99.9x% for this age group even before the vaccines became widely available (not sure if an older version of the numbers is accessible at this point, though).

Surely you can begin to understand that I and many others believe there's no such thing as "dramatically reducing" a risk of 0.08%.

[rach5]

Here is a study of breakthrough Omicron in 7 young boostered people up to (unfortunately only) 7 days of symptoms. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3981711

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns

Yeah, 0.08%. I already said that.

Correct that the figure includes vaccinated and unvaccinated people, but I am almost certain that the survivability was 99.9x% for this age group even before the vaccines became widely available (not sure if an older version of the numbers is accessible at this point, though).

Surely you can begin to understand that I and many others believe there's no such thing as "dramatically reducing" a risk of 0.08%.

Forget the possibility of dying. Opting to get sick and risk your lungs to unknown long-term effects, vs. getting a free vaccine, is beyond stupidity. And even "natural immunity" is not as good as vaccinated immunity, as studies have now shown.

[tribecavsbrowns]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

Forget the possibility of dying. Opting to get sick and risk your lungs to unknown long-term effects, vs. getting a free vaccine, is beyond stupidity. And even "natural immunity" is not as good as vaccinated immunity, as studies have now shown.

Unknown indeed. I've met exactly one person who has long-term effects. I don't live my life based on unknown risks that don't provide any signal to my senses that they actually exist in significant proportion, just because someone is screaming at me about them. Never have, never will.

Some feedback: if you cooled it with the insults and the uncalled-for scare quotes around natural immunity, maybe more people would want to take your free vaccine.