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Old 03-21-2020, 09:55 AM
 
Location: Newburyport, MA
5,623 posts, read 2,932,760 times
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Trajectory data as of this morning - still no sign of flattening the curve yet

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Old 03-21-2020, 10:06 AM
 
16,082 posts, read 11,803,808 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OutdoorLover View Post
Agreed. They have belatedly come around, but the White House and conservative "news" and radio have been alternately angry and mocking in their tone, and describing this variously as
- A hoax
- Fake news
- A Democratic conspiracy to make Trump look bad
- No big deal, much easier than routine flu
- Already beaten

Now wonder so many conservatives say this stuff - they're just repeating what they've been told for quite some time.

I thought the "hoax" thing actually came from AOC, and was unfounded. Do not watch CNN.
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Old 03-21-2020, 10:10 AM
 
5,465 posts, read 2,370,437 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OutdoorLover View Post
Trajectory data as of this morning - still no sign of flattening the curve yet
It is just that more people are being tested. The US death rate is considerably low for the numbers of cases.

Even if you argue we aren't doing 100% what we are supposed to you cannot go from everything open to 50% closed and see little effect unless people were infected well before.
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Old 03-21-2020, 10:18 AM
 
Location: Newburyport, MA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arya Stark View Post
It is just that more people are being tested. The US death rate is considerably low for the numbers of cases.

Even if you argue we aren't doing 100% what we are supposed to you cannot go from everything open to 50% closed and see little effect unless people were infected well before.
FWIW, that's not what NIAID Director Anthony Fauci says. Fauci said the disease is "accelerating" in the US. But I guess you know better.
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Old 03-21-2020, 10:19 AM
 
Location: The ghetto
11,354 posts, read 4,362,843 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arya Stark View Post
No way this will go on for several months. Both China and South Korea are getting back to normal. Basically like 6 weeks.

I think there will be a bit but I would not be surprised if we are pretty much back to normal by election day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jayrandom View Post
China was under strict lockdown for about two months. I think that’s my over/under for here, too.

It's a fluid situation and we'll see where this goes, but I don't think 6 weeks or two months is realistic. As BostonMike said, the infectious disease experts are talking about 18 months - which I'd guess translates to "until there's a vaccine".
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Old 03-21-2020, 10:26 AM
 
1,221 posts, read 1,824,442 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OutdoorLover View Post
Trajectory data as of this morning - still no sign of flattening the curve yet

Median incubation period is ~5 days and you're looking at fairly substantial numbers of people who'll still be developing it out to 9-12 days after exposure.



Given that most measures have only gone into effect this week, even if they are are effective, you're looking at least a week lag (and you could argue more likely 2) before that would show up in changing the trajectory of new cases.


Realistically it might be a little longer than that, as the measures are only going to slow transmission across social networks, and not within households. If you picked it up a week ago, maybe now you don't infect anyone outside your household with the new measures, but the rest of your family is probably still going to get it and represent another 2-3x increase (you -> spouse + 2 kids) in cases before your branch of it "burns out".


So I'm skeptical you'd seem much leveling off until you get out to the 2-3 week range. Which is likely why that timeframe has been chosen as the initial closure period for a lot of things.
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Old 03-21-2020, 10:31 AM
 
Location: Newburyport, MA
5,623 posts, read 2,932,760 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redplum33 View Post
It's a fluid situation and we'll see where this goes, but I don't think 6 weeks or two months is realistic. As BostonMike said, the infectious disease experts are talking about 18 months - which I'd guess translates to "until there's a vaccine".
Yes, now we can *hope* it will quiet down in the warmer months - it may. But even if that happens, we should expect things to pick back up in the fall.
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Old 03-21-2020, 11:34 AM
 
6,743 posts, read 5,877,186 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikePRU View Post
I think the larger issue is that SPED students are legally required to have the same access to education that "typical" students have. It's nearly impossible to effectively perform some SPED programs remotely.
Kinda sorta. Reminds me of the anti charter arguments bug vocational schools often can't bend over for sped. Mass stare constitution has public education as a right but it does not say it has to be in a classroom.

It isn't that hard to buy and distribute chromebooks. So it is the same access.
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Old 03-21-2020, 12:18 PM
 
24,578 posts, read 14,403,026 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redplum33 View Post
It's a fluid situation and we'll see where this goes, but I don't think 6 weeks or two months is realistic. As BostonMike said, the infectious disease experts are talking about 18 months - which I'd guess translates to "until there's a vaccine".

I think you're probably right.
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Old 03-21-2020, 12:56 PM
 
2,674 posts, read 1,010,215 times
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So everyone will be working from home for 18 months you think ?
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