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Old 07-09-2020, 08:25 AM
 
779 posts, read 868,165 times
Reputation: 919

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Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonMike7 View Post
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-da...-2020/download

Latest report shows a slight uptick in hospitalizations and the positivity rate. Something to keep an eye on the next few days.
I could be confused, but historically haven't we seen Wednesdays produce anomalies in data?

I still feel like everybody here is taking it very seriously vs. other parts of the nation. I have family in the midwest who say that most are not wearing masks, whereas here, everybody I know is wearing them.

I readily admit that when the mask mandate came out, I was genuinely frustrated because I felt there was a lot of confusion around whether or not they were effective and, quite frankly, I found them to be uncomfortable. But I tried a few different types until I found one that fit my face and I've obviously been using them when I'm out. And now it's so second nature to me that I don't have any issue with it. And if all we need to do is be thoughtful about mask wearing, social distancing, hand-washing, and protecting those most at risk, then I really don't understand why it's getting so out of control in other states. Every day we have more data and every day we are seeing that we don't need to be in a lockdown to control this (based on states like MA).
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Old 07-09-2020, 08:36 AM
 
Location: Boston
2,411 posts, read 1,286,435 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mdovell View Post
Look I miss music concerts and festival too but we can't have large events. No conventions, no rallys, no concerts, no large gatherings.
I get the sentiment but the fact is they can and they will have large gatherings, and there's no amount of bemoaning the issue that will stop it. Well, I suppose if enough people got together to protest large gatherings...then you'd have a second large gathering.

The moral of the story is and has always been that if you're deathly worried about being exposed to Covid the only recourse you have is to isolate yourself. Do not count on, hope for, or expect others to accommodate or consider others. That much should be obvious by now.
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Old 07-09-2020, 08:58 AM
 
15,683 posts, read 20,181,855 times
Reputation: 20853
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewfieMama View Post
I could be confused, but historically haven't we seen Wednesdays produce anomalies in data? .
I was looking specifically at the 7-day positivity average, and the 2-day positive increase in hospitalizations.


Not enough of an uptick to make any sort of claim that cases are about to increase. Just a "hey...lets keep an eye on that".
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Old 07-09-2020, 09:05 AM
 
779 posts, read 868,165 times
Reputation: 919
Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonMike7 View Post
I was looking specifically at the 7-day positivity average, and the 2-day positive increase in hospitalizations.


Not enough of an uptick to make any sort of claim that cases are about to increase. Just a "hey...lets keep an eye on that".
Oh, got it. Thanks.
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Old 07-09-2020, 09:09 AM
 
3,808 posts, read 3,100,077 times
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Where's our contrarian voice now that the "full open" populations are showing real consequence? TX and FL are going full parabolic right now ...

Last edited by Shrewsburried; 07-09-2020 at 09:32 AM..
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Old 07-09-2020, 09:40 AM
 
Location: Providence, RI
12,589 posts, read 21,733,355 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shrewsburried View Post
Where's our contrarian voice now that the "full open" populations are showing real consequence? TX and FL are going full parabolic right now ...
Busy in other threads complaining about the monarch of large endangered mammals.
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Old 07-09-2020, 11:22 AM
 
875 posts, read 653,848 times
Reputation: 985
Quote:
Originally Posted by sawyer2 View Post
I would watch CA, TX, FL, AZ very closely over the next few weeks as it will be indicative of how well we can deal with these apparent surges/spikes.

Medical knowledge, testing, public awareness etc has all dramatically improved over the last few months. Surges are to be expected, and if these are suppressed quickly it will give confidence to all.

I posted this a few weeks ago .... not looking good on the 'give confidence to all' front.

I personally know 2 physicians in AZ and they said that they feel like their colleagues in NYC did back in March/April. That this is happening 4 months later is inexcusable on so many levels.


For the contrarians, yes, I appreciate that case increase alone is not the whole picture, and we need to look at how much testing has increased and if/when testing capabilities have maxed out, along with positivity rate, and of course hospitalization and death/excess death rates.
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Old 07-09-2020, 11:33 AM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
5,974 posts, read 4,957,747 times
Reputation: 4024
Quote:
Originally Posted by sawyer2 View Post
I posted this a few weeks ago .... not looking good on the 'give confidence to all' front.

I personally know 2 physicians in AZ and they said that they feel like their colleagues in NYC did back in March/April. That this is happening 4 months later is inexcusable on so many levels.


For the contrarians, yes, I appreciate that case increase alone is not the whole picture, and we need to look at how much testing has increased and if/when testing capabilities have maxed out, along with positivity rate, and of course hospitalization and death/excess death rates.
Yes, you're right. If increased "testing" was solely to blame, then the more we test, the lower the % positive should go. Otherwise, it indicates that there are genuinely more cases. But of course, try to explain this concept to someone who's spouting this dogma, and it's "advanced mathematics" for them and won't sink in.
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Old 07-09-2020, 11:39 AM
 
3,808 posts, read 3,100,077 times
Reputation: 3332
Quote:
Originally Posted by sawyer2 View Post
For the contrarians, yes, I appreciate that case increase alone is not the whole picture, and we need to look at how much testing has increased and if/when testing capabilities have maxed out, along with positivity rate, and of course hospitalization and death/excess death rates.
I can't find the graph now, but the data the tribune posted was hospitalizations as well as ICU and ventilator usage (as related to Covid). The data was quite damning, i.e., elevated cases were correlating to the back end hospitalizations.

Edit: Not the Tribune; TPR.org. https://www.tpr.org/post/officials-s...hey-were-april
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Old 07-09-2020, 11:48 AM
 
875 posts, read 653,848 times
Reputation: 985
Quote:
Originally Posted by htfdcolt View Post
Yes, you're right. If increased "testing" was solely to blame, then the more we test, the lower the % positive should go. Otherwise, it indicates that there are genuinely more cases. But of course, try to explain this concept to someone who's spouting this dogma, and it's "advanced mathematics" for them and won't sink in.
Indeed - look at AZ - highest positivity rate in the US. Testing is close to being tapped out so this will continue to climb. Imagine what the real positive numbers are.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/...states/arizona


The only positive side is that the medical staff now have a far better arsenal and protocols to treat patients, so prognosis for severe patients is far better. Unless of course your healthcare facilities become overwhelmed, which is getting pretty close is some counties.
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