Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Worcester, Springfield: metropolitan area, ceiling, factories)

[BostonMike7]

I feel the same way, in a wishful thinking sort of way.

I think the virus ran through our region in much greater numbers than we were able to test for back in Feb/March.


Given the higher death rate in the northeast, vs areas of the country currently dealing with a surge, I think actual numbers here in MA were prob near 750k-1mil

Of course, I have no way to prove it. Just a gut feeling

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

I signed up for a trial for MA residents to get my antibodies tested. I was "out & about" in February including riding the T, but it may be wishful thinking on my part to think I was exposed. I'll find out soon.

I was on the T as late as the 2nd week of March, traveled internationally in Jan and Feb, and domestically in early March. In the office downtown and restaurants/bars during that time too. I was also sick with comparable symptoms (very rare for me - tested negative for the flu) in early Feb. I was tested for antibodies in early July and the test came back negative. I was really disappointed. It could be that the test was wrong (30-40% chance this is the case), and it could be that enough time had passed since the infection that my antibody levels were low enough not to be detected or the test was for the wrong antibody. But until the science catches up, I have to continue on as if I am capable of getting sick and/or spreading.

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

I feel the same way, in a wishful thinking sort of way.

I think the virus ran through our region in much greater numbers than we were able to test for back in Feb/March.

Given the higher death rate in the northeast, vs areas of the country currently dealing with a surge, I think actual numbers here in MA were prob near 750k-1mil

Of course, I have no way to prove it. Just a gut feeling

Same gut feeling on my end too. I hope there's a way to prove (or disprove) it sooner rather than later.

[NewfieMama]

As everybody has said, there is really no way to prove anything at this point--unless we know the antibodies stay in our bloodstream for 8+ months and we have accurate testing. But I have heard from doctors and nurses who I'm close with say that there was a surge of patients with flu-like symptoms coming in Jan/Feb and were testing negative for the flu. I remember bringing my daughter in over Feb vacation week with flu symptoms and my husband texting me an article about how it was a "record-breaking flu season so far".

I was tested for the antibodies back in May, but tested negative. The handful of people I know who tested for the antibodies tested negative and the nurse said about 5% of the antibody tests she was doing back then were coming back positive.

[NorthofHere]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

Has anyone actually been fined?

Yes. I live in Florida and a couple in our neighborhood (very large neighborhood so I don't know them but a friend does) flew into I am not sure whether Boston or Providence but they filled out the form and I guess stated where they were staying. They rented a car and went up to Maine for 3 days then returned. I do not know where they were staying but the day they returned officials showed up and fined them $500 * 3 * 2. So yeah, they are fining people. Now we had our niece and her friend down to go to a long promised Disney World visit (they both stated they felt safer at Disney then back home based on social distancing everyone wearing masks). Prior to their arrival we set up a quick test at a local hospital outpatient facility so that they could avoid the quarantine. The both tested negative and it has been 2 weeks since they returned and none of us are sick. So, if you are coming to Massachusetts just arrange a quick test for the day before you arrive and you will avoid the fines.

An addendum to the story of the couple is that they believe that a toll booth caught them but my guess is they were staying at some place they own (second home maybe) and someone came knocking for the 3 days they were in Maine and they weren't there or if they were staying in a hotel they called the hotel each day to check if they were in fact registered.

[yesmaybe]

They changed up the dashboard a bit. The % positive is going back down. I think they might be messing with the numbers plus they are still behind. Does look like there isn't going to be a second wave... guess the party on the Cape didn't spread much.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

They changed up the dashboard a bit. The % positive is going back down. I think they might be messing with the numbers plus they are still behind. Does look like there isn't going to be a second wave... guess the party on the Cape didn't spread much.

Wait till the college students come back. I predict, oh around mid-September.

[charolastra00]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

I feel the same way, in a wishful thinking sort of way.

I think the virus ran through our region in much greater numbers than we were able to test for back in Feb/March.


Given the higher death rate in the northeast, vs areas of the country currently dealing with a surge, I think actual numbers here in MA were prob near 750k-1mil

Of course, I have no way to prove it. Just a gut feeling

At best guess even right now with all of our testing, many epidemiologists believe that as many as 10 times more people have covid than are actually diagnosed in most of the country. IHME pins Massachusetts currently at about 5x the new cases per day that are actually caught based on % positive and hospitalization trends. For the 20 days of peak cases at the end of March/early April, IHME estimates that more than 350,000 in Massachusetts got sick. That feels about right considering how impossible it was to get tests at that time.



I recently was told that nearly half of our custodians were out sick with coronavirus symptoms during that time. One passed away after testing positive in the hospital in mid-March and he was symptomatic at a work event where he likely exposed people in early March. Of course, we didn't know nearly as much then. Virtually no one else was able to get tested at that time, so while most think they had it, we have no way of knowing for sure if some didn't have a spring cold. Likewise, there were probably others who were asymptomatic.


I can list a dozen stories of friends who were sick in March and early April who knew they were exposed to someone who tested positive or had a member of their household who tested positive, but were told they couldn't get a test unless hospitalized. Throw in asymptomatic people and you've got a pretty large group who likely are not measured in our covid numbers.


1 million sounds about right, but is still disappointing low.

[redplum33]

I have a hard time buying into the theory that it ran through this region. I understand the basis for it, and the numbers do seem to suggest it's possible, but it ignores the fact that our behavior changed in a major way and many restrictions were put in place.

If we went back to living life as if it were December 2019, I'm convinced it would be a disaster.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

I feel the same way, in a wishful thinking sort of way.

I think the virus ran through our region in much greater numbers than we were able to test for back in Feb/March.


Given the higher death rate in the northeast, vs areas of the country currently dealing with a surge, I think actual numbers here in MA were prob near 750k-1mil

Of course, I have no way to prove it. Just a gut feeling

Wishful thinking.

62% of Massachusetts deaths were nursing homes. All nursing homes now have rigorous infection control process to keep it out. There were no antivirals. Nobody knew to put patients on their stomach with oxygen and only use a vent as a last resort. Treatment is a lot better and that lowered the mortality rate.

We don’t have antibody test results consistent with 1 in 7 Massachusetts residents contracting COVID-19. In Brockton or Chelsea? Sure. The 70% of the state that is single family homes was very low single digits. The state pulled the plug before many could contract the disease.

[bohemka]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Wishful thinking.

62% of Massachusetts deaths were nursing homes. All nursing homes now have rigorous infection control process to keep it out. There were no antivirals. Nobody knew to put patients on their stomach with oxygen and only use a vent as a last resort. Treatment is a lot better and that lowered the mortality rate.

We don’t have antibody test results consistent with 1 in 7 Massachusetts residents contracting COVID-19. In Brockton or Chelsea? Sure. The 70% of the state that is single family homes was very low single digits. The state pulled the plug before many could contract the disease.

The line I bolded is what continues to shock me. As an asthmatic with a long history of chronic bronchitis and pneumonia, prone position with oxygen and meds is exactly the first treatment I would have pulled out of my non-medical-but-familiar-with-pulmonary-issues behind. To hear that they discovered this along the way and didn't think of it first was truly weird.