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With viral poop loads at or exceeding March levels, and given the accessibility of testing now, vs then, I wonder if asymptomatic (or very minor symptom) spread is far more prevalent than we thought.
I don’t really get a sense of any urgency with the general public. Outside of C-D and maybe a few friends in my circle, many people I talk to are completely unaware cases are climbing back up.
I think that after 9 months of media saturation, most people are doing the very human thing and tuning it out. I think the ones paying attention are self-assessing as higher risk.
My fiancée has staff at some urban northeast corridor hospitals. I get to listen to the rant that there are physicians in leadership positions who were saying “now that the pandemic is over...” within the last few weeks. Even people who should know better are wishing it away.
I still contend that the body count this time won’t be anything like the spring. The nursing homes should all have good infection control process with frequent staff testing. Most seniors are in their bubble. Some younger people will get really sick but I don’t think we will have refrigerated trucks in hospital parking lots to hold the bodies. It’s hard to guess how many ICUs will overflow.
I don't think people would respond well. As I said earlier in the thread, people were burning masks in the streets of NYC when 9 zip codes recently got shutdown. That reaction was short lived, though.
And you're correct that some people would go out of their way to not comply, but those people would be the small minority. Overall, we'd be in a far better place than we are now...and that's a fact.
Play this through to the end now.
Say you get a 'successful' shutdown (you won't, but let's say you will) and the spread drops to 200-300 cases per day. How long? Shut it down for 8 weeks and our rise back to 1000+ daily cases gets delayed by 8 weeks. 16 weeks? Delays the rise back to 1000+ cases by 16 weeks.
Then what? A third shutdown in February? Stay shut down for 12 months? It's already been said that best case right now on a vaccine is mid to late 2021.
It's easy to armchair quarterback this and say 'stay shutdown until a vaccine is widely available' and lambast those who complain as whining about their inconvenience, but you're asking people who are already on the edge of insanity to go back into the rubber room for what, 5x as long as they did last time? Millions of Americans are already at the point they'd rather face the virus than go back into isolation. I guarantee if this happened, many communities will just give the shutdown the finger and ignore it altogether.
Who's paying the rent and food for all those out-of-work people who still owe back rent from the first shutdown? How do you handle the hoarding this time around? How do you keep the supply chains open? Going to force Comcast and Verizon to give free Internet to everyone with a kid? Order police to arrest people who break quarantine and don't comply? Where do you send them and at what cost?
This is the 'better place' we'd be in?
I get it, we both want to go back to normal ASAP, but we can't force it at this point. This nation had one shot at doing this right back in February and blew it. The first shutdown had a chance to work if it was done quickly (it wasn't) and effectively (it wasn't) since it was a shock to everyone and nobody quite knew how to deal with it. It's not February anymore, and there's been more than enough time for this issue to be politicized and for everyone to form very deep beliefs about the pandemic and to know how a shutdown affects them. Shutting down again will not yield the same results.
Say you get a 'successful' shutdown (you won't, but let's say you will) and the spread drops to 200-300 cases per day. How long? Shut it down for 8 weeks and our rise back to 1000+ daily cases gets delayed by 8 weeks. 16 weeks? Delays the rise back to 1000+ cases by 16 weeks.
Then what? A third shutdown in February? Stay shut down for 12 months? It's already been said that best case right now on a vaccine is mid to late 2021.
It's easy to armchair quarterback this and say 'stay shutdown until a vaccine is widely available' and lambast those who complain as whining about their inconvenience, but you're asking people who are already on the edge of insanity to go back into the rubber room for what, 5x as long as they did last time? Millions of Americans are already at the point they'd rather face the virus than go back into isolation. I guarantee if this happened, many communities will just give the shutdown the finger and ignore it altogether.
Who's paying the rent and food for all those out-of-work people who still owe back rent from the first shutdown? How do you handle the hoarding this time around? How do you keep the supply chains open? Going to force Comcast and Verizon to give free Internet to everyone with a kid? Order police to arrest people who break quarantine and don't comply? Where do you send them and at what cost?
This is the 'better place' we'd be in?
I get it, we both want to go back to normal ASAP, but we can't force it at this point. This nation had one shot at doing this right back in February and blew it. The first shutdown had a chance to work if it was done quickly (it wasn't) and effectively (it wasn't) since it was a shock to everyone and nobody quite knew how to deal with it. It's not February anymore, and there's been more than enough time for this issue to be politicized and for everyone to form very deep beliefs about the pandemic and to know how a shutdown affects them. Shutting down again will not yield the same results.
You had the same opinion in March. Most people didn't share it then and I'd guess a lot don't share it now.
You're saying people would ignore a shutdown. How? If everything is closed other than essential stores, there really wouldn't be a choice. There would be nothing to do.
You had the same opinion in March. Most people didn't share it then and I'd guess a lot don't share it now.
You're saying people would ignore a shutdown. How? If everything is closed other than essential stores, there really wouldn't be a choice. There would be nothing to do.
I also said we'd hit a half a million dead back before it was over when the death toll was under 50,000. You probably thought I was mad then, but here we are almost half way there and the curve keeps going up. It doesn't matter if people share my opinion, but it's sure what reality seems to be reflecting.
Everything was closed except for essential stores. Cases still came in; it only slowed it down. In return, we're a couple trillion more in debt, millions are waiting for eviction notices with dread, and we're still nowhere near back to normal. As soon as things re-opened, it picked right up where it left off. There was no suffocating the virus. It just waited us out. Now we're over 200,000 dead.
You like to go after schools because the kids are the super spreaders to you. How many of those schools closed because kids followed the rules and got infected anyway? How many of those schools were forced to close because kids broke the rules and had private parties and get-togethers knowing there'd be consequences?
Kids aren't the only ones. You close everything and you think people will go 'oh well, guess I'll just stay home because there's nothing to do' and we'll be all fine. Wrong. People this round will go 'to hell with this, I'm not doing it again, if I can't go out I'll throw my own party and invite people over' and people will come. They'll go to RI or NH where it's not shut down and get together there. They'll come back and not quarantine because few actually do and there's zero enforcement.
People are already resisting mask mandates and social distancing enough to be problematic, but you think they'll go along with a shutdown?
1) More and more states are reporting using field hospitals and running out of hospital space as we type. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/23/u...lizations.html
Why wouldn't we?
2) An 8 week lockdown does more than push things out by 8 weeks, as it would bring cases down below what they are right now. After all, we haven't seen case counts like this since the spring! If it can buy us 4-5 months - we may have some vaccines ready, and likely a more useful supply of antibody treatment, for high risk populations (ie for more than just clinical trial participants and the elite).
If we don't do anything, exponential spread will get us into a completely unmanageable situation which will break our country. But apparently many people don't understand this, until they or their loved ones get extremely sick or die (see Chris Christie).
1) More and more states are reporting using field hospitals and running out of hospital space as we type. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/23/u...lizations.html
Why wouldn't we?
2) An 8 week lockdown does more than push things out by 8 weeks, as it would bring cases down below what they are right now. After all, we haven't seen case counts like this since the spring! If it can buy us 4-5 months - we may have some vaccines ready, and likely a more useful supply of antibody treatment, for high risk populations (ie for more than just clinical trial participants and the elite).
If we don't do anything, exponential spread will get us into a completely unmanageable situation which will break our country. But apparently many people don't understand this, until they or their loved ones get extremely sick or die (see Chris Christie).
A lockdown is pointless. What we need is a mask and distancing mandate with real penalties for violating it. Go in any store and you’ll see exposed noses. If it’s a $1000 fine and heavily enforced, that would stop immediately. It’s been 9 months. Everyone knows how to wear a mask properly. Same for distancing. If it’s $1000 to violate it, people comply. House party? $10,000 fine. Why should we cripple the economy because selfish people refuse to do their civic duty? The solution is to fine them and if they still refuse, lock them up in the COVID-infested jail for a few days. That’s how we enforce DUI law. This is far more damaging to the country than a few drunk drivers.
I have definitely noticed that many people seem like they could care less about this spike in cases. I admit I'm annoyed about hockey since it's an activity my kids do and they already have so much taken away. Saturday night my parents took the kids so my DH and I did a date night. We hadn't been without the kids for a while and had a gift card to this one restaurant. There were plenty of people there, packed parking lot. Also it was a nice day. Yesterday my neighbors had an outdoor pumpkin carving party. We didn't go really just because the kids were still at my parents.
I think people are definitely fatigued and tired of all this. On this particular forum i get the sense people are careful (or they say they are). I am somewhat introverted. I'm not one of those women who has girls night anymore heading out to the bars so nothing to miss for me there. I missed our annual trip to VT this year, but it just didn't seem worth it paying for hotels and not knowing what to expect and having to wear masks (not always easy for a 3 and 6 yr old).
I also have come in contact with more people who say they know someone who had corona and they had no symptoms or maybe just had some cold symptoms and went on to be fine after a few days. We all realize many will suffer more from this but most people will not.
A lockdown is pointless. What we need is a mask and distancing mandate with real penalties for violating it. Go in any store and you’ll see exposed noses. If it’s a $1000 fine and heavily enforced, that would stop immediately. It’s been 9 months. Everyone knows how to wear a mask properly. Same for distancing. If it’s $1000 to violate it, people comply. House party? $10,000 fine. Why should we cripple the economy because selfish people refuse to do their civic duty? The solution is to fine them and if they still refuse, lock them up in the COVID-infested jail for a few days. That’s how we enforce DUI law. This is far more damaging to the country than a few drunk drivers.
That's not realistic, Geoff. If the numbers continue climbing, a shutdown will be necessary.
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