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Old 03-21-2020, 07:24 AM
 
7,912 posts, read 7,734,621 times
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I think that's important to take a look at what some of the large venues are saying and the major functions of the state which I would say they tend to revolve around Academia and the operations of public schools ( private, Charter and all there's also can lump in here)

I do not think that students will be going back in April. In fact, I don't think students are going to be going back in September either. Let's say you have an elementary school that has say 50 students in each grade so that's 300 for grades one through six. A relatively small school. First we were told to limit Gatherings of 250 or less and then we are told 25 by the state and the Feds are now saying 10. In order to allow for larger Gatherings of people we're going to need to see more testing and these numbers at least plateau and go down. I don't see that happening in the next two and a half weeks. We've seen increases significantly 20% on a day-to-day basis.

With respect to Academia we have to consider that there's now an active lobbying for a 50 billion dollar bailout to higher education. I'm not referring to Ivy League schools like Harvard, MIT and Yale but smaller ones. They would not be asking for a bailout to cover students that are still paying although online. Basin bail out is for the anticipation that students would not be going back in September at least in the physical sense. Then you have to take a look at some of these sporting events that are not League based and these music venues that are now being delayed significantly. WWE has delayed an event in Springfield from today to September. The MassMutual Center can hold probably 3,000 people and if we assume that maybe 2/3 full that brings it down to 2000. If a company cannot thank that 2,000 people safe enough and another couple months then I doubt we're going to see Academia come back.

This isn't about cleaning the actual facilities there are many reputable companies that can easily disinfect and sanitize a building in weeks if not days. What this is about is the logistics of allowing larger groups of people to physically attend venues and take no risk that not all of them have been tested.

Let's say that testing is allowed as a precondition for entering the building. well even if you could knock this down to three or four hours what company honestly is going to try to have an event knowing this? That would mean that just going to a sporting event or a concert can take as long as going to an airport if not more.

The actual cases per the state are updated here
https://www.mass.gov/info-details/co...and-monitoring

Between Hampden, Hampshire and Franklin County there are only six cases. There are 20 cases in the Berkshires. This isn't to say that there isn't more but the impact is generally been less out in Weston Mass. The Berkshire is a significantly High especially on a per-capita basis and this was largely accountable because nurses unfortunately were not mandated to have as much protective gear that they should have and they had to be quarantined. In addition there are many ass would New Yorkers that are now fleeing to the Hudson Valley believing that they are sheltered. It isn't that far to go from Albany to Pittsfield. Less access to healthcare, less access to local media, the testing facilities are largely still out of Boston are all factors as to why that number is so high.

Things are much worse in New York. Another kid is doing okay although Fairfield county is doing the worst.

I somewhat agree in that this probably was already in the area but we didn't notice it because it's simply passed through people. My girlfriend's son was sick for a number of weeks back in January and it was a person I was dealing with as I mentioned earlier that pretty much didn't respond to email for 3 weeks and she told me she was sick.

We will get past this fighted and defeated. But I think that in many respects The New Normal will be normalized by the time we're done with it. Economies are like muscles when they break until they become stronger but they aren't necessarily the same.
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Old 03-21-2020, 07:24 AM
 
Location: Westwood, MA
5,037 posts, read 6,868,020 times
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Originally Posted by Arya Stark View Post
No way this will go on for several months. Both China and South Korea are getting back to normal. Basically like 6 weeks.

I think there will be a bit but I would not be surprised if we are pretty much back to normal by election day.
China was under strict lockdown for about two months. I think that’s my over/under for here, too.
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Old 03-21-2020, 07:27 AM
 
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I disagree about china going back to normal for good

China’s recent cases are travel related. That means people from infected parts of the world are trickling back into areas outside wuhan.

Unless they have widespread testing, the virus will go undetected for 4-6 weeks and all the sudden you have a new epicenter and they cycle repeats.

That’s why experts have predicted 18mos and several waves. The next 4 weeks could be NYC/Boston and Cali, and then in 3 mons, Dallas and Kansas City could be an epicenter.

Until herd immunity of a vaccine is widespread, this is the new normal for a while.
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Old 03-21-2020, 08:33 AM
 
Location: North of Boston
559 posts, read 745,451 times
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Originally Posted by jayrandom View Post
China was under strict lockdown for about two months. I think that’s my over/under for here, too.
Problem is we aren't under strict lockdown
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Old 03-21-2020, 08:38 AM
 
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They’re shut down.
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Old 03-21-2020, 08:52 AM
 
7,912 posts, read 7,734,621 times
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To be frank I don't think that school districts are going to come back for the remainder of the semester and possibly in the fall. Online classes do take a little bit to set up but from a technological standpoint they should not be that hard. Utilizing things like Moodle and Blackboard and Google Classroom can easily allow for information to go from student to teacher. But of course this also means that you're judging and online school versus another online school.

The long-term ramifications I think are going to be a little bit harder to judge. Can mcas be done online or not? Can the ACT in the SAT be done online or not?
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Old 03-21-2020, 08:57 AM
 
7,912 posts, read 7,734,621 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonMike7 View Post
I disagree about china going back to normal for good

China’s recent cases are travel related. That means people from infected parts of the world are trickling back into areas outside wuhan.

Unless they have widespread testing, the virus will go undetected for 4-6 weeks and all the sudden you have a new epicenter and they cycle repeats.

That’s why experts have predicted 18mos and several waves. The next 4 weeks could be NYC/Boston and Cali, and then in 3 mons, Dallas and Kansas City could be an epicenter.

Until herd immunity of a vaccine is widespread, this is the new normal for a while.
That's right. With respect to China most of their Industries located on the Eastern areas not more towards the West. as people go home that might cause it to spread further east. Also keep in mind domestically Washington has been dealing with this for two months now.

Usually I don't ask a whole lot of people but let me say this. There are a lot of small businesses now that are suffering greatly because people aren't shopping there. If you have the ability to shop at a local store or restaurant while keeping safe distances please do so. because when this ultimately ends if all we have left is just Amazon and Walmart we're not going to be in a good place.
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Old 03-21-2020, 09:02 AM
 
Location: Needham, MA
8,524 posts, read 13,898,586 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mdovell View Post
To be frank I don't think that school districts are going to come back for the remainder of the semester and possibly in the fall. Online classes do take a little bit to set up but from a technological standpoint they should not be that hard. Utilizing things like Moodle and Blackboard and Google Classroom can easily allow for information to go from student to teacher. But of course this also means that you're judging and online school versus another online school.

The long-term ramifications I think are going to be a little bit harder to judge. Can mcas be done online or not? Can the ACT in the SAT be done online or not?
I think the larger issue is that SPED students are legally required to have the same access to education that "typical" students have. It's nearly impossible to effectively perform some SPED programs remotely.
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Old 03-21-2020, 10:25 AM
 
Location: Newburyport, MA
11,904 posts, read 8,990,771 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mdovell View Post
:
:
Usually I don't ask a whole lot of people but let me say this. There are a lot of small businesses now that are suffering greatly because people aren't shopping there. If you have the ability to shop at a local store or restaurant while keeping safe distances please do so. because when this ultimately ends if all we have left is just Amazon and Walmart we're not going to be in a good place.
I have also made a point of stopping in to get some takeout food, etc just to keep *some* money going into retail business - besides gas stations and supermarkets. Your local eateries are probably dead (ours are)... and they'll need something to pay staff with and stay in business.
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Old 03-21-2020, 10:48 AM
 
Location: Newburyport, MA
11,904 posts, read 8,990,771 times
Reputation: 15206
Quote:
Originally Posted by iAMtheVVALRUS View Post
Considering how the conservative media was talking about the virus 2 weeks ago, it’s not hard to imagine these college students not getting the memo:

https://youtu.be/ifKbwDf51bA
Agreed. They have belatedly come around, but the White House and conservative "news" and radio have been alternately angry and mocking in their tone, and describing this variously as
- A hoax
- Fake news
- A Democratic conspiracy to make Trump look bad
- No big deal, much easier than routine flu
- Already beaten

Now wonder so many conservatives say this stuff - they're just repeating what they've been told for quite some time.
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