is it a crazy time to sell?? (Boston, Somerville: sales, apartment)

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by mdovell

Students bring money into an economy because you've got this constant age demographic and they're going to shops and restaurants bars and clubs and just spending a fair amount of money in general.

It's far bigger than that when you factor in all the companies who are desperate to hire cheap college grads. No cheap college grads, no reason to be in Boston.

Now Northeastern is saying they are planning on being open in the fall. It could be a ploy to keep students from deferring or bailing however. Nobody wants to spend 30, 40 grand on distance learning.

[MikePRU]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Sure, but from some rather deep troughs. No? Somerville prices remained a relative bargain when I was working in Davis Square circa ‘05-‘06. That has changed significantly.

Areas change. Remember in the 80's when the South End was a "rough" neighborhood? The rising prices in Somerville had a lot to do with changes that were made in the area. It wasn't just that suddenly prices went through the roof.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a bit of a flight from urban areas. Many of the people I know who live in Cambridge/Somerville/Boston are not so excited about where they live right now. They're crammed into small spaces and all of the pluses of urban living have vanished. That might change the dynamics in a place like Somerville but we'll see how dramatically people react.

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

It's far bigger than that when you factor in all the companies who are desperate to hire cheap college grads. No cheap college grads, no reason to be in Boston.

Now Northeastern is saying they are planning on being open in the fall. It could be a ploy to keep students from deferring or bailing however. Nobody wants to spend 30, 40 grand on distance learning.

Eh.. I think it depends. If employers still want degrees then there's no let up. People go to higher ed for the most part because of higher salaries. If they still want degrees then they'll have to accept that it was made with distance learning.

Funny you mention it as a ploy. Until last week CT's governor didn't say that public schools would be closed the remainder of the year. With practically all other states saying they would what's the big deal...

I still think smaller metros will do better. Companies want access to people and suburbs have a lack of amenities and general assets.

Work from home can be good but I have to wonder what the increased needs for police and fire will look like. Homeowners and renters insurance is going to HAVE to go up within this respect. Companies will easily argue that spending another 40-60 hours at home can bring he risk of increased accidents, fires, slips, falls etc.

[mdovell]

The trickle-down effects of what's going on I started to have a deep and systemic in packs and smaller communities Across America and Massachusetts. From what I've been reading it sounds like Amherst has an unemployment rate of about 54% and a colleague of mine that works a bit within the town of Halifax on the South Shore is that unemployment there's 20%.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by MikePRU

Areas change. Remember in the 80's when the South End was a "rough" neighborhood? The rising prices in Somerville had a lot to do with changes that were made in the area. It wasn't just that suddenly prices went through the roof.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a bit of a flight from urban areas. Many of the people I know who live in Cambridge/Somerville/Boston are not so excited about where they live right now. They're crammed into small spaces and all of the pluses of urban living have vanished. That might change the dynamics in a place like Somerville but we'll see how dramatically people react.

Yes, I’m aware. The point I was attempting to make is that the growth you were sighting was built upon a very raw and very unrealized Somerville (or south end, etc.). As areas gentrify, it becomes harder and harder to maintain the growth and rising valuations.

IMO, an $800k condo in Somerville seems less sustainable than an $800k SFH in Lexington in a recession environment, particularly if tech/pharma equities take a valuation hit.

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by mdovell

Eh.. I think it depends. If employers still want degrees then there's no let up. People go to higher ed for the most part because of higher salaries. If they still want degrees then they'll have to accept that it was made with distance learning.

There's probably still time for some students to transfer to another school that would be more likely to open for the fall. By stalling the time will run out. You're already going to lose students who will either defer or transfer to a school closer to home.

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

There's probably still time for some students to transfer to another school that would be more likely to open for the fall. By stalling the time will run out. You're already going to lose students who will either defer or transfer to a school closer to home.

I think that is a fundamental difference between what some people think is a universal okay by the government reopen and with the actual mitigation cost and switching costs are of actually dealing with covid.

This summer we're going to have to have some real fundamental conversations about how buildings should be re-engineered. Maybe it comes down from the federal government and the state government but this has to happen in order for anything to actually come back inside of a building. It could be Academia or retail or Industrial etc

I think a reasonable conversation can be centered around the fact that social distancing is going to become a norm until vaccine comes. So that means things like face Shields and face masks and hand washing are going to be in any building. There was some people that would rather not deal with all that and just insist that things continue to be done online.

In order for any building to be used it has to be retrofitted with anything that would mitigate covid-19 regulations. but at the same point you still run the risk of liability should someone be sick whether that be a customer, a student or an employee.

[MikePRU]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Yes, I’m aware. The point I was attempting to make is that the growth you were sighting was built upon a very raw and very unrealized Somerville (or south end, etc.). As areas gentrify, it becomes harder and harder to maintain the growth and rising valuations.

IMO, an $800k condo in Somerville seems less sustainable than an $800k SFH in Lexington in a recession environment, particularly if tech/pharma equities take a valuation hit.

It's hard to predict these things, but everyone loves to claim they were right when they're looking in the rearview mirror.

For years, many people were writing articles that millenials will never move to the burbs and it will send home prices crashing as boomers downsize. Never happened. Now some folks are saying the population is going to be fleeing the urban core for more space inside and outside in case of a future lockdown or from fear that it's easier to spread a disease in a more densely populated area. We'll see. A lot of these predictions tend to be more gentle undercurrents than tidal waves.

[sawyer2]

Originally Posted by MikePRU

We'll see. A lot of these predictions tend to be more gentle undercurrents than tidal waves.

....and people have short term memories


We also had a lot of doom and gloom property naysayers in my wife and my families ...

- When she bought in Coolidge corner ...'shouldn't buy there, nothing but students'

- I bought in SEnd ...'shouldn't buy there, nothing but drugs and crime'

- When we bought in BBay as the financial world fell around us in 09/10...'shouldn't buy now, its going to get way worse'

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

IMO, an $800k condo in Somerville seems less sustainable than an $800k SFH in Lexington in a recession environment, particularly if tech/pharma equities take a valuation hit.

I agree. We could see small cities and towns merge in mass. Four square miles for a city is hardly anything Given the lack of immigration and birthrates and staffing they are at a disadvantage.

I don't exactly think that gentrification is bad but you do have to think about the changes. Even in Springfield when mgm opened the crime in the downtown dropped..(tons of cameras, local and state cops, private security, much more lighting etc) But it didn't exactly go away it moved to Forest Park. 25 years ago I saw Irish being priced out of Southy and moving to Weymouth and if you are a person of color you're more apt to go to the Randolph and Brockton.