Please Tell Me This Weather Forecast for Maui is Wrong (Honolulu: how much, closing)

[jens123]

We live in snowy, gloomy miserable Chicago and have a family vacation in Maui planned for January 28- Feb 6 that we have been looking forward to for months. I know it can be rainy there at this time of year but my guidebook said that it "very rarely" rains in the same part of the island for more than 3 days, so I thought out of a ten day trip, I could deal with a few days of rain, as long as there was a fair amount of sun mixed in. Living here, esp this winter which has been brutal, we are starved for sunshine. Anyhow, I dialed up the extended forecast for Kihei on Weather Underground this morning and felt physically sick looking at it. (see below)

As I said, I expected SOME rain, but 8 straight days of rain? If it was just my wife and I, I wouldn't be so worried, because it's kind of fun to just lay in bed, read a book, go to a movie, linger over coffee or lunch, maybe hit a museum or another indoor activity, but with two little boys, ages 4 and 6, you really have to find ways to entertain them. At the pool or beach, this is very easy, in the rain- that's another story, esp. if it lasts 8 days in a row or more. So, two questions- first- do you think this forecast is accurate? And, second, would you reschedule the trip if you thought this kind of weather was coming? It looks like it would cost us a lot of money- maybe $700 or so to change the dates- but considering how much we are spending on this trip, perhaps it would be worth it? A lot can change in a week, so I'm praying the forecast changes but this looks bleak. Your thoughts?


FORECAST FROM WEATHER UNDERGROUND:

Tuesday
rain
Thundershowers following a period of rain early. High 78F. Winds NE at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Tuesday Night
nt_tstorms
Showers and thunderstorms. Low 67F. Winds NE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Wednesday
tstorms
Thunderstorms likely. High 77F. Winds NE at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Wednesday Night
nt_tstorms
Thunderstorms. Low 69F. Winds NE at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Thursday
tstorms
Thunderstorms in the morning, then mainly cloudy late with light rain possible. High around 75F. ENE winds at 10 to 20 mph, increasing to 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Thursday Night
nt_rain
A steady light rain early. Showers with perhaps a rumble of thunder developing late. Low 69F. Winds ENE at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Rainfall near a quarter of an inch.
Friday
tstorms
Thunderstorms likely. High 76F. Winds ENE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Friday Night
nt_tstorms
Thunderstorms likely. Low 69F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Saturday
tstorms
Thunderstorms likely. High 77F. Winds E at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Saturday Night
nt_tstorms
Thunderstorms. Low near 70F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Sunday
tstorms
Thunderstorms likely. High 77F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Sunday Night
nt_tstorms
Thunderstorms. Low around 70F. Winds ENE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Monday
tstorms
Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Then the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 78F. Winds E at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

[whtviper1]

Jan 28 is simply to far off to be accurate. This week is going to be a bit cooler than usual - and we do have some fronts impacting weather around Wednesday. It isn't likely to rain every day of your trip - but it is the wet season and we are overdue for some rain.

The online Maui newspaper just links to Weather.com for the extended forecast - but the forecast there isn't so gloom and doom.

[Jungjohann]

Take this data,
Ocean Prediction Center
Add this,
Central Pacific Hurricane Center Products - Honolulu, Hawai`i
Then, throw in this,
NOAA National Weather Service

That's the same data weather underground uses, and there is no way on earth that anyone can predict weather in Hawaii two weeks in advance.

Even if it is crappy, it'll still be better than Chicago.

Aloha

Don't forget to pack your thermal rubbah slippahs

[Dreaming of Hawaii]

Is Maui like the Big Island, where it can be raining in one spot but not another? We have varying weather depending on windward or leeward side and depending on upcountry or down by the water. Maybe your vacation will be ok.

[winkosmosis]

When you look up a forecast, it has to be for a specific town. If you just do "Maui" it will probably give you the forecast for Kahului.

And even then, the forecast for a town might be meaningless.

[whtviper1]

Originally Posted by Dreaming of Hawaii

Is Maui like the Big Island, where it can be raining in one spot but not another? We have varying weather depending on windward or leeward side and depending on upcountry or down by the water.

Yes, Hana is like a rainforest - similar to Hilo. While Lahaina is more similar to Kona, fairly dusty and dry. Unless a major front comes in - which we can get in the winter, the trip will likely be fine.

And there will be no "polar vortex"

[Jungjohann]

Perfect example of Island weather. I was out paddling one morning, south side of Maui, started early, and the sky was nice and clear out over Molokini, Kahoolawe, and Lahaina side, but over upper Kula, Ulupalakua, Keokea, it was black, very low cloud cover. Went down to Polo, hardly any wind, then stopped at Kamaole 2 on the way back to Kamaole 1 to talk story with the lifeguards. As we're talking, a little water starts coming out of the drainage ditch under Kihei Road, about halfway down the beach. We're still talking, and within 15 minutes, this little trickle of water had turned into a stream, by the time I got back onto my surfski, the lifeguards were considering closing the beach, due to all the dirty water now entering the ocean. Didn't rain one drop in Kihei. Not one.


Location, location, location

[Kayekaye]

Having visited the island numerous times over decades, I found that if it's raining, a trip to the other side of the island was usually much different weather. One tip I did was to call for restaurant reservations at a place I wanted to eat, and ask if it was raining. Told them I wanted to get out of the rain. It worked every time. Course I know there are times when the weather can be severe and it's best to not drive, so be alert.

[jens123]

I'm typing in Kihei, not Maui.

[Sherwoody]

Originally Posted by jens123

I'm typing in Kihei, not Maui.

Try typing Lahaina and see if the data changes. TWC has a 10 day forecast that look delightful.

10 Day Weather Forecast for Lahaina - weather.com