a question on the economy (Hialeah: credit, loan, home)

[cixcell]

Originally Posted by Chelito23

But tallrick, although you make EXCELLENT points, remember that people could..how can I put this on the forum...self fertilize their home gardens. LOL

No but really, decaying leaves, seeds, organic waste would become compost piles....so there is a way to get around poor soils, much like the original settlers did. People would be able to adapt if they were forced to.

Power could go solar here...and if everyone got panels on their roofs, that would help out as well. I think SOFLA would be in a better situation for survival...keeping in mind than many of our residents would make a beeline for their original homes (not apartments here) in other countries or in the rest of the US.

The remaining bunch would farm, adapt to the climate, plant shade trees once again and stop hat racking. In a way, things would be peaceful I think. We have canals, ponds, bays, estuaries, the ocean, the gulf, freshwater lakes....so although resources would be strained, I think we could get by.

The lazy people would not survive, but that would be the same for lazy people anywhere under that scenario.

I like your world Chelito! I want in!

[tallrick]

Trouble is, if they use human waste on gardens the insects will spread disease and Miami will be like it's sister city Port-Au-Prince. I am a long time user of compost but that does not work for industrial agriculture. Wood gas from trash and solar thermal can help, but in a total collapse only nuclear power could be reliable, for a while. Solar PV requires significant industry to build and fails over time. It is not and will never be a solution. Perhaps solar algae to oil farms could work, but I think as said above, most will just live as they did in the third world.

[bale002]

This has been a great thread, I like the way some of the posts dove-tail and feed off each other.

Originally Posted by Chelito23

Honestly, I think Miami has a chance in that scenario ONLY because people could have a guaranteed source of food year round...bananas, mangos, pineapples, corn, sugar....the very most basic staples could be grown in one's yard. People could go fishing or hunting for iguanas or gators...

I'm not so sure that corn by itself is a sufficient source of carbohydrates for healthy survival. I read somewhere (can't remember where at the moment) that in some Central/South American regions, people need to know special techniques to survive well with corn as their main carbohydrate staple.

Sugar and rice production go well together in Palm Beach County, Miami-Dade could replicate that or the two regions could trade using the canal system, the Everglades, and coastal waterways as highways, as mentioned.

Tallrick

The ratio of farmland to developed land is very small, perhaps only enough to support a million residents. In a full scale depression I can see desperate people going offshore to fish or hunting in the everglades ... Eventually in a full depression real estate values would fall to historic lows, and you will see homes being cannibalized for wood to burn and wire, plumbing etc to build things from. Shopping center parking lots and even some whole developments will be leveled to become farms. The high-rise condos and office buildings would become useless in a post collapse world but would be too difficult to demolish, so they may stand for decades to come.

I agree that one-half to two-thirds of the population would be killed or die off due to violence, hunger, and disease. However, I believe that if an elite can get hold of a significant portion of the best agricultural land and keep hold of trade, they could still maintain at least some of those high rise condos on the coast as sort of a walled citadel for themselves, I've seen this film before.

In any case, I agree with Chelito that the chances of this scenario are very low, but still cannot be completely discounted.

Tallrick, do you know offhand what percentage of the port of Miami's agricultural and merchadise exports is actually produced in Miami-Dade County?

[cixcell]

Originally Posted by bale002

Sugar and rice production go well together in Palm Beach County, Miami-Dade could replicate that or the two regions could trade using the canal system, the Everglades, and coastal waterways as highways, as mentioned.

I've actually thought about that and at one point wanted to build a longboat to run and down the canals. you just need to put the prop on a long pole.

by the way, you can graft sugar apple on native everglades pond apple
http://2012project12.files.wordpress...ugar-apple.jpg

[tallrick]

Originally Posted by bale002

This has been a great thread, I like the way some of the posts dove-tail and feed off each other.




I agree that one-half to two-thirds of the population would be killed or die off due to violence, hunger, and disease. However, I believe that if an elite can get hold of a significant portion of the best agricultural land and keep hold of trade, they could still maintain at least some of those high rise condos on the coast as sort of a walled citadel for themselves, I've seen this film before.

In any case, I agree with Chelito that the chances of this scenario are very low, but still cannot be completely discounted.

Tallrick, do you know offhand what percentage of the port of Miami's agricultural and merchadise exports is actually produced in Miami-Dade County?

I know that locals would go from passive to violent if they have empty stomachs. It is doubtful that the "elite" would want to control the land and live within target area. High rises can be reduced to empty shells simply by sabotaging the grid or substations. The wealthy will retreat to the bay islands or other single family estates by navigable waterways.

I have heard that only 5% of all produce consumed in the Miami area comes from local sources. In the 1950's almost 50% of building products such as windows, doors and even electrical products were produced locally. Now I think it is closer to 15%. I will try and find reliable sources to quote to back me up.

[perry335654]

Stories from the Great Depression - YouTube

[roadtrip75]

Originally Posted by cixcell

if the worst case scenario were to happen and we slide into a full on Depression where the financial system seizes (maybe from debt contagion spread from europe?) and most are thrown out of work

On the bright side, HOAs would have their influence reduced.

[♥♥PRINC3Ss♥♥]

Originally Posted by cixcell

so heres a question for you. tallrick might appreciate this one too.
even if you arent as bleak as I am, take it as a mental exercise.

if the worst case scenario were to happen and we slide into a full on Depression where the financial system seizes (maybe from debt contagion spread from europe?) and most are thrown out of work, do you think that the self-reliance of the cuban people to barter and trade and mechanical knowledge to get things done with basically nothing will be a strong asset? I would like to think yes.

do you think we could exist here on a local level trading goods and services without external funding of any kind?


US Debt Crisis - 2012 is only for America - YouTube

First that's not gonna happen. The only places where people have lived like that in past decades have been in communist countries like Cuba I grew up in Latin America in the 80's and even back then you could find food at supermarkets and local grocery stores (bodega type) and that's when they those countries were called "third world countries" because of their high external debts. That was before the computer and information age. Yes there were periods of high unemployment rate but those who wanted to work usually found jobs within months. Yes inflation was crazy but as prices went up so did wages.

Most of the world doesn't work like the World Vision videos. Many people in this world have enough to eat and have service economies believe or not. And the world is changing very fast, African and Asian middle class is growing. Some out there just like to sensationalize because sensationalism sells.

But to answer your question, no. It wouldn't make a difference. Humans adapt very quickly and everybody would do just fine. Also I don't think that would be a good economical model. Humans have come too far to live that way. It's not productive. Even if you believe in Peak Oil tin Foil theories, we will go nuclear before the world stops working.

Finally that video is full of BS and sensationalism. Taxes can be raised and entitlements can be cut. Also treasuries are still being bought. What we have now is some idiots in Washington trying to get reelected and playing games. I do think that they didn't expect the downgrade or at least its consequences. The Tea Party won't be as popular when the market tanks and people start losing jobs because consumer confidence is lost when 401ks go down.

[Edu983]

Originally Posted by cixcell

so heres a question for you. tallrick might appreciate this one too.
even if you arent as bleak as I am, take it as a mental exercise.

if the worst case scenario were to happen and we slide into a full on Depression where the financial system seizes (maybe from debt contagion spread from europe?) and most are thrown out of work, do you think that the self-reliance of the cuban people to barter and trade and mechanical knowledge to get things done with basically nothing will be a strong asset? I would like to think yes.

do you think we could exist here on a local level trading goods and services without external funding of any kind?


US Debt Crisis - 2012 is only for America - YouTube

Debt contagion spread from Europa????

It is the other way around. Europa was fine until the housing market/banks collapsed in the USA.

[cixcell]

All these worlds are yours except Europa. Attempt no landing there.