Miami's Future (apartments, condos, credit)

[tallrick]

Since the Fed decided to keep on printing, the free money will keep on flowing in Miami for malinvestment. However, the "gentrification" will end as soon as the rest of the world dumps the dollar and the new projects become vacant. Overtown will eventually expand to Brickell in the coming decades as the US dollar and bonds are rejected by the rest of the world. The hard fact is this, the poor are growing as a share of the world's population and the parasite class cannot make up for the demand. The real estate bubble will continue to inflate until the critical moment is reached. Once the Fed loses control it is game over. The real rich have no desire to live in a pidgeon hole in Overtown, Brickell or wherever but will buy properties in traditional wealthy areas. Those new high rises are too low quality to compete. Just take a Metrorail ride and see how those new buildings are already cracking, shedding paint and getting frayed at the edges. This will end badly.

[LordHomunculus]

Originally Posted by NowSoFlorida

Detroit has nothing going for it. It's basically a slum where no one wants to live or visit.

Miami us a worldwide vacation destination. It will never be a Detroit.

I guarantee you that future Detroit will be one of America's most technologically advanced and prosperous cities. Sometimes, things that are destroyed end up getting rebuilt with even greater traits. Like you said, Miami will always be a vacation destination. Might sound good, but meh.

[tallrick]

Originally Posted by LordHomunculus

I guarantee you that future Detroit will be one of America's most technologically advanced and prosperous cities. Sometimes, things that are destroyed end up getting rebuilt with even greater traits. Like you said, Miami will always be a vacation destination. Might sound good, but meh.

Good point. If the corrupt government is cleaned out I can see Detroit as a high-tech manufacturing city. It has so many things going for it in a world of scarce water resources. The drag on the city is the huge low end parasite class left over from workers displaced by automation and globalization. Miami has nothing going for it except sunny warm winter weather. Like you I believe that only a total collapse can reset a failed system.

[perry335654]

What hurt Detroit and Pittsburgh were greedy unions, the difference is Pittsburgh reinvented itself, the air in Pittsburgh is a whole lot cleaner than decades ago. Unions have its purpose to keep from Management aggression, but the pendulum swung too far and things overseas with innovation and less cheaper to make hurt the steel and auto industry.

These are things big cities such as Miami can learn from, take notes, it is easy for anybody to put down the cities problem but smart ones know how to innovate, Miami has more going for it than warm weather and vacationing as that we give to the Miami Beach side as Miami needs to be more of the business side.

[Lo Maximo]

In talking about Detroit, it's also important to note that the huge metro area has not suffered as much as Detroit itself and many middle class people actually live in the suburbs (maybe 4 million total pop. with less than a million in Detroit proper). In fact the flight to suburbs is one of the reasons for Detroit proper's decline beyond the obvious economic factors (outsourcing of jobs overseas/competition). The unemployment rate for the metro area is well below that within Detroit's city limits.

One advantage Miami has is the ties to Latin America (which had a nice growth run) and foreign direct investment in the city, but how sustainable is that going to be...hard to say. That being said the Chinese are buying distressed properties in Detroit now. Neither area has a particularly skilled workforce but Detroit does benefit from the pre-existing manufacturing infrastructure and has a top flight university on its outskirts (U. of Michigan).

Talking about gentrification in Miami, how about W. Coconut Grove.

[robertobaggio]

Originally Posted by tallrick

Good point. If the corrupt government is cleaned out I can see Detroit as a high-tech manufacturing city. It has so many things going for it in a world of scarce water resources. The drag on the city is the huge low end parasite class left over from workers displaced by automation and globalization. Miami has nothing going for it except sunny warm winter weather. Like you I believe that only a total collapse can reset a failed system.

You, my friend, have no idea what you are talking about.

Have you perhaps read any news about the projected growth of countries like Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, etc? Miami is effectively the Capital of Latin America. A lot of business pertaining to those countries is done in Miami. Almost all international corporations now days have their LatAm operations based in Miami. You do the math...

[robertobaggio]

Originally Posted by Lo Maximo

In talking about Detroit, it's also important to note that the huge metro area has not suffered as much as Detroit itself and many middle class people actually live in the suburbs (maybe 4 million total pop. with less than a million in Detroit proper). In fact the flight to suburbs is one of the reasons for Detroit proper's decline beyond the obvious economic factors (outsourcing of jobs overseas/competition). The unemployment rate for the metro area is well below that within Detroit's city limits.

One advantage Miami has is the ties to Latin America (which had a nice growth run) and foreign direct investment in the city, but how sustainable is that going to be...hard to say. That being said the Chinese are buying distressed properties in Detroit now. Neither area has a particularly skilled workforce but Detroit does benefit from the pre-existing manufacturing infrastructure and has a top flight university on its outskirts (U. of Michigan).

Talking about gentrification in Miami, how about W. Coconut Grove.

Miami's finance world blows Detroit out of the water and most other US cities.

Univ. of Miami (ranked #47) is the top university in the state and has little to envy to U. of Michigan (ranked #28).

National University Rankings | Top National Universities | US News Best Colleges

[manny118]

Originally Posted by robertobaggio

You, my friend, have no idea what you are talking about.

Have you perhaps read any news about the projected growth of countries like Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, etc? Miami is effectively the Capital of Latin America. A lot of business pertaining to those countries is done in Miami. Almost all international corporations now days have their LatAm operations based in Miami. You do the math...

Of the countries you listed the most significant is Brazil and their economy is actually starting to slow down. Brazil did have a period of strong growth driven by demand for raw materials. The fortune of Latam always seems to rest on the strength of raw materials and commodities, they just aren't major value add economies.

Miami needs to focus on developing or brining in a prominent industry. New York has finance, LA has entertainment, Boston has biotech and finance, North Jersey has pharmaceuticals, San Fran has tech. Miami has been a gateway to Latam for a long time now and I just don't see it getting this city to the next level. LA and San Fran are both gateways to Asia which is far more significant than being a gateway to Latam, yet when we think of LA and San Fran we think of a lot more than just their status as a gateway to Asia because they also have large industries that create a far more dynamic economy.

[manny118]

Originally Posted by robertobaggio

Miami's finance world blows Detroit out of the water and most other US cities.

Univ. of Miami (ranked #47) is the top university in the state and has little to envy to U. of Michigan (ranked #28).

National University Rankings | Top National Universities | US News Best Colleges

Most of the high finance stuff that happens in Miami/South Florida happens with the handful of private equity shops down here. I'm sure there are a handful of bankers specializing in capital raising and M&A with a focus on Latam, but they are not a big part of the finance community in Miami.

Most of the finance industry stuff that happens in Miami centers around wealth management where people with relationships with wealthy individuals take their money and invest it with institutions. These institutions are likely based in other cities where asset management and other high finance type stuff happens.

[TooLoud]

Originally Posted by tallrick

Since the Fed decided to keep on printing, the free money will keep on flowing in Miami for malinvestment. However, the "gentrification" will end as soon as the rest of the world dumps the dollar and the new projects become vacant. Overtown will eventually expand to Brickell in the coming decades as the US dollar and bonds are rejected by the rest of the world. The hard fact is this, the poor are growing as a share of the world's population and the parasite class cannot make up for the demand. The real estate bubble will continue to inflate until the critical moment is reached. Once the Fed loses control it is game over. The real rich have no desire to live in a pidgeon hole in Overtown, Brickell or wherever but will buy properties in traditional wealthy areas. Those new high rises are too low quality to compete. Just take a Metrorail ride and see how those new buildings are already cracking, shedding paint and getting frayed at the edges. This will end badly.

The poor are actually shrinking across the world. I recall reading an article where it said for the first time in human history, the average person is a middle income earner (I believe on the lower end but in the middle nonetheless)