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Old 07-25-2008, 04:31 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
9,296 posts, read 14,188,570 times
Reputation: 10013

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I've been in and out of the Miami/southeastern Florida area for the last four years, trying to ride out the real estate bubble.

In Miami, I am particularly interested in the Brickell/Roads area, noticing recently price drops to the point where some things may be worth at least looking at.

I have read some recent posts and cite a few comments below:

Quote:
Right now, a LOT of folks are underwater on condo "flips" gone wrong. You can find reasonable cost vs quality in lots of well placed buildings.

Right now Miami's real estate market is out of whack, there are a lot of foreclosures on homes, prices have been driven up by foreign speculators and investors.

A 400k house a year and a half ago is worth maybe 300k today. It will probably drop to 280k but then it will start going back up as the next load of buyers enters the market.

I live next door to a house that went on the market at almost $600,000 and now is being offered for just over $300,000 and it still won't sell.

People would rather have their house foreclosed on than accept a legit offer.

I have friends that put their home on the market in the end of May, they close in two weeks. I have a neighbor on the next block that has had her house on the market for over a year ... So I really think it comes down to how serious the sellers are.
To what extent do the above comments apply to specifically the Brickell/Roads area?

I have seen some foreclosures advertised for houses and heard that some condos recently coming onto the market are selling at half their original asking price.

How common are short sales/foreclosures on the houses and condos in this area?

To what extent has new construction come onto the market and what has been its effect? Have any projects been abandoned since 2007?

What is the forecast in this specific area over the next year or so for more foreclosures and more condos coming onto the market?

I am aware of the general real estate trends throughout the country, the state, southeastern Florida, but I am looking for comments on specifically the Brickell/Roads area.

Thanks.
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Old 07-25-2008, 07:30 AM
 
Location: America
6,993 posts, read 17,303,862 times
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Bale,

I am not familiar with the roads area. But the Brickell area that is just south of downtown is taking a beating. They had a fire sale in one building back in Nov. 2007. Units that went for 300,000 at the height of the bubble were sold for 125,000 to 150,000. Still has some room to go though, I think.

Miami Herald claims condo sales in Miami are holding steady and have actually picked up. HOWEVER, there is this one blog which if I find again i will post. On that blog they revealed what is really going on. A lot of banks, flippers and other entities that own these places and cant sale are selling them to themselves to make it look like they are moving units again. Example, lets say wachovia has foreclosed on 10 properties, they sell it to some unit of their bank, say jacob holdings or something like that. I would assume to try and stabilize prices as well. He provides proof of whats going on so again, people still havent gotten the memo. They think through silly tactics they can keep prices artificially high. Just wait a bit.

Will try and find those blogs for you later.

peace

This isn't the blog I was referring to but this will hammer home what you already know. wait for the 2.5 to 3.5 times annual income to come back in place. Mr. Schiff lays it all out here. He doesn't state the 2.5 to 3.5 rule, instead uses the 30% of income rule which is basically the 2.5 to 3.5 times income rule lol.


link
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Old 07-25-2008, 07:39 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
9,296 posts, read 14,188,570 times
Reputation: 10013
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post
Bale,

I am not familiar with the roads area. But the Brickell area that is just south of downtown is taking a beating.

... there is this one blog which if I find again i will post ... Will try and find those blogs for you later.

peace
Thanks Wild Style. If for some reason you can't post, then please PM.

Roads is the residential sector just west-southwest of the southern leg of Brickell, traditionally filled with 1920s-1930s homes (and later), now, since the bubble, blotted with high rise condos on the main avenues, especially Third, I believe.

Anyway, I look forward to your follow up and any comments from other Miami sub-thread contributors.
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Old 07-25-2008, 08:54 AM
 
Location: Broward County
2,517 posts, read 11,014,387 times
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Dont' even think of buying a condo now. Prices are projected to drop an additional 22% in Miami-Dade by this time next year.
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Old 07-25-2008, 09:33 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
9,296 posts, read 14,188,570 times
Reputation: 10013
Quote:
Originally Posted by heydade View Post
Dont' even think of buying a condo now. Prices are projected to drop an additional 22% in Miami-Dade by this time next year.
Not too interested in county average, trying to focus the discussion on one section of the city's territory.

But while we're at it, do you think that Boca condo prices will drop at a faster pace than Miami, or has Boca already done the bulk of its dropping?
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Old 07-25-2008, 09:46 AM
 
Location: America
6,993 posts, read 17,303,862 times
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bale,

this is the fire sale from 2007


link

Still trying to find the blog post
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Old 07-25-2008, 09:55 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
9,296 posts, read 14,188,570 times
Reputation: 10013
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post

Still trying to find the blog post
Look forward to it. I did a quick search for area blogs, but came up with fluffy stuff.

I want the dirt.
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Old 07-25-2008, 12:27 PM
 
Location: Coconut Grove, FL
13 posts, read 49,577 times
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Check out this blog for miami condos. It is a blog that has good comments as well.

Miami Condos For Sale | Miami Real Estate | Brickell & Miami Condos Blog | Foreclosures Information | Miami Condos Investments

I think the downtown condos are going to drop a lot more in price in the next few years. If you are patient, you will get a good deal. Dont expect for your condo to go up in value anytime soon.
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Old 07-25-2008, 12:34 PM
 
Location: America
6,993 posts, read 17,303,862 times
Reputation: 2093
Quote:
Originally Posted by carbonblackcab View Post
Check out this blog for miami condos. It is a blog that has good comments as well.

Miami Condos For Sale | Miami Real Estate | Brickell & Miami Condos Blog | Foreclosures Information | Miami Condos Investments

I think the downtown condos are going to drop a lot more in price in the next few years. If you are patient, you will get a good deal. Dont expect for your condo to go up in value anytime soon.
carbon

not to go off topic to much but i see you are in the groove. Where is a good place in the groove to look?
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Old 07-25-2008, 01:18 PM
 
Location: Coconut Grove, FL
13 posts, read 49,577 times
Reputation: 15
Wild Style: Grove as condos and townhouses. I live in a townhouse a few blocks from cocowalk and I love it. Prices in the grove have been holding up well (they didnt double or triple like other areas).

Depending on what you are looking for, there are plenty of choices for condos and houses. Be prepared to pay more and dont expect fire sales.
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