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I definitely think that this goes beyond a general panic because of 24/7 news about the subject. The climate in the economy has brought down powerhouses in the credit and banking industries across the world. I like to gather information from news as well as real life experiences to get a clearer picture, that's why I asked the question about what locals here in miami are seeing themselves because like you said the news is all bad.
Putting emotions aside, how can anyone in their right mind AND who understand economics think things are getting better here? Layoffs are still mounting, unemployment numbers are still rising, and tourism (the main industry of Miami) is down by 15% and climbing. Foreclosures are mounting. You have Alt A prime and near prime loans that reset in September through to January. There will be a lull then a pick up again next spring. The only homes selling are the ones that are in distress and even those many of the deals are not going through. You also have banks sitting on thousands and thousands of homes instead of putting them on the chopping block because that would further depress the housing market. Miami's economy is made up of consumer spending based activities. If people can’t find jobs then how can it rebound? It would be utterly impossible.
People (not you necessarily) need to get it through their thick skulls) this is not your parents normal recession. This is a depression and it is going to be long/protracted and deep. People can either adjust or they will be caught out there when things really get crazy.
To top it all off, crime is climbing. And those are just from the information that is being reported (crime is traditionally under reported across the country). What happens when a person who is barely holding on says (next year things are going to get better). Then next year comes and nothing changes? They will lose their ever loving minds, that’s what is going to happen! Oh and don't forget the loss of population that South Florida is seeing. Miami bucked that trend last year but how long will that go on? When analyzing this stuff you really have to think dynamically. So many events will affect other things which in turn will have domino affects on yet more stuff. I would be lying if I didn’t say I am cautiously concerned right now (read: scared)
Putting emotions aside, how can anyone in their right mind AND who understand economics think things are getting better here? Layoffs are still mounting, unemployment numbers are still rising, and tourism (the main industry of Miami) is down by 15% and climbing. Foreclosures are mounting. You have Alt A prime and near prime loans that reset in September through to January. There will be a lull then a pick up again next spring. The only homes selling are the ones that are in distress and even those many of the deals are not going through. You also have banks sitting on thousands and thousands of homes instead of putting them on the chopping block because that would further depress the housing market. Miami's economy is made up of consumer spending based activities. If people can’t find jobs then how can it rebound? It would be utterly impossible.
People (not you necessarily) need to get it through their thick skulls) this is not your parents normal recession. This is a depression and it is going to be long/protracted and deep. People can either adjust or they will be caught out there when things really get crazy.
To top it all off, crime is climbing. And those are just from the information that is being reported (crime is traditionally under reported across the country). What happens when a person who is barely holding on says (next year things are going to get better). Then next year comes and nothing changes? They will lose their ever loving minds, that’s what is going to happen! Oh and don't forget the loss of population that South Florida is seeing. Miami bucked that trend last year but how long will that go on? When analyzing this stuff you really have to think dynamically. So many events will affect other things which in turn will have domino affects on yet more stuff. I would be lying if I didn’t say I am cautiously concerned right now (read: scared)
I have no idea why you quoted me based on your response. If you read my initial question and response you will notice that I take no stance on the subject that is why I asked whether you think the economy is getting better or worse.
Just to be clear this is a "recession", technically speaking it doesn't qualify as a depression because the GDP hasn't declined more than 10%, but instead a recession because GDP has declined over two consecutive quarters. With that being said the current point that we are in now is going to determine whether we will slip into a depression or turn things around.
The unique thing is that it is teetering on the edge of a depression while some are optimistic and others say it's just the beginning of the end.
Consumer views and confidence is a huge part of the economy getting better along with jobs, real estate credit...etc.
I have no idea why you quoted me based on your response. If you read my initial question and response you will notice that I take no stance on the subject that is why I asked whether you think the economy is getting better or worse.
Just to be clear this is a "recession", technically speaking it doesn't qualify as a depression because the GDP hasn't declined more than 10%, but instead a recession because GDP has declined over two consecutive quarters. With that being said the current point that we are in now is going to determine whether we will slip into a depression or turn things around.
The unique thing is that it is teetering on the edge of a depression while some are optimistic and others say it's just the beginning of the end.
Consumer views and confidence is a huge part of the economy getting better along with jobs, real estate credit...etc.
You misunderstood, I was not directed toward you. I was just adding on to what you said, I agreed with you.
Secondly your definition of what a depression is, is partly right. To SOME economicst it can be measured in a drop in GDP or in duration (how long it lasts). But if you look at the over all fundamentals of the great depression and long depression you will see a over arching theme and tht theme had nothing to do with how much GDP fell, it had to do with the fundamentlas of why these depressions took place in the first place. We are far from teetering, this is a depression. The fundamentals are there for what we are going through to be a depression.
That is unless they come up with some productive capacity that changes the world (like zero point energy or cold fusion). Other than that I just dont see it. Also you should know during the last depression if you look at GDP it went up and down and even showed signs of recovery (thanks to printing money to spur capital investments) and when that didnt work (digging ditches and building highways) it really fell off a cliff. This in time will show the same thing. Govt will print money and fund projects like rebuilding roads and funding mass transit. They will even spur on a green energy bubble but the fundamentals will not be there and things will fall down again.
Again, this is all based on them NOT coming up with some real producitive capacity. For all I know there may be some geek in MIT that just found the break through for zero point energy which will revolutionize the world and spur jobs in America via a producitive capacity.
Also the "consumer confidence" thing we hear on tv is purly non sense. I speka as a person who holds a degree in economics. People are over leveraged. They are not spending becuase they dont have the money, its that simple. People have spent their way into financial ruin and now people are to busy attempting to deleverage to be able to spend. Has nothing to do with people not being confident, that is something they sell on the media to keep peoples eyes off of the real reason we are at the place we are at right now. THe whold confidence thing is right up there with gas prices being high because of speculation. Also another bowl of boo boo. Gas prices rose so high becuase the govt has been printing money since Bush Jr's time.
You misunderstood, I was not directed toward you. I was just adding on to what you said, I agreed with you.
Secondly your definition of what a depression is, is partly right. To SOME economicst it can be measured in a drop in GDP or in duration (how long it lasts). But if you look at the over all fundamentals of the great depression and long depression you will see a over arching theme and tht theme had nothing to do with how much GDP fell, it had to do with the fundamentlas of why these depressions took place in the first place. We are far from teetering, this is a depression. The fundamentals are there for what we are going through to be a depression.
That is unless they come up with some productive capacity that changes the world (like zero point energy or cold fusion). Other than that I just dont see it. Also you should know during the last depression if you look at GDP it went up and down and even showed signs of recovery (thanks to printing money to spur capital investments) and when that didnt work (digging ditches and building highways) it really fell off a cliff. This in time will show the same thing. Govt will print money and fund projects like rebuilding roads and funding mass transit. They will even spur on a green energy bubble but the fundamentals will not be there and things will fall down again.
Again, this is all based on them NOT coming up with some real producitive capacity. For all I know there may be some geek in MIT that just found the break through for zero point energy which will revolutionize the world and spur jobs in America via a producitive capacity.
Also the "consumer confidence" thing we hear on tv is purly non sense. I speka as a person who holds a degree in economics. People are over leveraged. They are not spending becuase they dont have the money, its that simple. People have spent their way into financial ruin and now people are to busy attempting to deleverage to be able to spend. Has nothing to do with people not being confident, that is something they sell on the media to keep peoples eyes off of the real reason we are at the place we are at right now. THe whold confidence thing is right up there with gas prices being high because of speculation. Also another bowl of boo boo. Gas prices rose so high becuase the govt has been printing money since Bush Jr's time.
Good Points....I come from a Business background and preparing for an MBA, so my economics is on an intermediate level, but you probably are more advanced coming from a purely economic background.
I didn't realize that there wasn't a concrete definition for an economic depression, I was going by what I was taught in school which was the 10% GDP decline, but I guess based on what's happening that can't be used. Your right we are in pretty bad shape based on fundamentals. We go from a deep recession then stimulus is injected and then we bounce around until we fall again into another deep recession. This is definitely a unique situation. I can't see how we can make it work either based on economics.
Good Points....I come from a Business background and preparing for an MBA, so my economics is on an intermediate level, but you probably are more advanced coming from a purely economic background.
Technically it's not a depression by "definition only", but your right we are in pretty bad shape based on fundamentals. We go from a deep recession then stimulus is injected and then we bounce around until we fall again into another deep recession. This is definitely a unique situation.
It is a depression by definition, read the link I gave you. There is no clear definition of what a depression is and the same goes for a recession. No one is going to call this a depression yet though. If they do the dollar is toast. Them changing definitions and getting certain economist to say certain things is all engineered. If the world knew or understood what was going on you and I would be purchasing gas for 80 dollars a darn gallon and bartering for food with cigarettes and mullets.
Also its not unique, remember the same thing happend during the great depression and then during the long depression. The thing is though, this time is worse because the the govt and its people are in debt up to its eye balls. Also during those previous depressions America was still making stuff the world needs. Now we are a laughing stuck as far as our goods go. People only want our movies and video games. And those two industries don't employ enough people to make much of a difference. Also, during the great depression they were able to issue bonds and americans purchased them which in turn helped us out. We don' thave this option this time. People are so overly indebted and on top of that those who were once rich based on faux wealth from stock market are now poor as dirt because of the debt destruction going on.
The trick is to understand how all this affects miami though. I am of the belief that after some sever pain down here we could pull out of this ok but it would take major retooling of the local economy. Did you hear U.M. is building a Biotech facility downtown? If this venture catches some traction and they recruit the right people (like some of the harvard faculty being laid off right now) then this could spell big things for miami. But they will also need to invest in mass transit and other things that make a big city viable.
I need to add my opinion on the subject: ok economy is bad in Miami but it seems that there is demand for certain services;
Medical, accounting, web, technology are still in demand: i run a search on the most popular career sites and it apprears that, yes salaries are VERY low but there is demand for doctors, accountants, lawyers, paralegal.....
Now, this does not mean the economy is rebounding but for someone looking to relocate, there are, it Appears, chances to find an occupation;
"Again, this is all based on them NOT coming up with some real producitive capacity. For all I know there may be some geek in MIT that just found the break through for zero point energy which will revolutionize the world and spur jobs in America via a producitive capacity." So, I see that you read "The Field".
"Again, this is all based on them NOT coming up with some real producitive capacity. For all I know there may be some geek in MIT that just found the break through for zero point energy which will revolutionize the world and spur jobs in America via a producitive capacity." So, I see that you read "The Field".
Wild Style has hit the nail on the head by focusing on productivity and pointing up the energy constraint.
On other forums, I have repeatedly laid out the formula
production - consumption = saving + investment
The coefficient in that equation is productivity, the constraint is energy, often also expressed as debt and inflation.
In a benign scenario, the economic path of the countries of early industrialization (basically, US, Europe, Japan) will be X or zigzag shaped, with starts and fits, bouts of production and consumption which hit up against constraints that slap the economy back down again. In fact, arguably Japan has already been on that path since the 1990s, Europe too. The US, until now, had apparently avoided it, but based largely on debt spending, superseding the gains from the advances in IT and telecommunications of the 1980s-1990s.
As for Miami, I think the original question is too narrowly focused in time. In other threads over the past two years, we have discussed the outlook for Miami over the long term.
To a large extent, Miami's economy will continue to depend on trade with Latin America. Ideal, of course, would be to achieve a balance among trade, local manufacturing, local agriculture and, to be sure, advanced services, all with global linkages.
It is not pleasant to contemplate the worst-case scenario, but I could imagine a world, after the dust settles, with about 1/2 to 1/3 its present population and many local economies with a balance among agriculture, trade, manufacturing and services with relatively few inter-regional and global linkages.
We could talk about depression, then, we could also talk about something akin to the plague, this time not as a bacteria, but as a dysfunction of human psychology.
These cycles have occurred before in history, except on different scales and technologies.
Good luck!
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did u look at careebuilder or monster
