Do You Think the Economy in Miami is Getting Better or Worst? (apartments, credit card)

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by bale002

Wild Style has hit the nail on the head by focusing on productivity and pointing up the energy constraint.

On other forums, I have repeatedly laid out the formula

production - consumption = saving + investment

The coefficient in that equation is productivity, the constraint is energy, often also expressed as debt and inflation.

In a benign scenario, the economic path of the countries of early industrialization (basically, US, Europe, Japan) will be X or zigzag shaped, with starts and fits, bouts of production and consumption which hit up against constraints that slap the economy back down again. In fact, arguably Japan has already been on that path since the 1990s, Europe too. The US, until now, had apparently avoided it, but based largely on debt spending, superseding the gains from the advances in IT and telecommunications of the 1980s-1990s.

As for Miami, I think the original question is too narrowly focused in time. In other threads over the past two years, we have discussed the outlook for Miami over the long term.

To a large extent, Miami's economy will continue to depend on trade with Latin America. Ideal, of course, would be to achieve a balance among trade, local manufacturing, local agriculture and, to be sure, advanced services, all with global linkages.

It is not pleasant to contemplate the worst-case scenario, but I could imagine a world, after the dust settles, with about 1/2 to 1/3 its present population and many local economies with a balance among agriculture, trade, manufacturing and services with relatively few inter-regional and global linkages.

We could talk about depression, then, we could also talk about something akin to the plague, this time not as a bacteria, but as a dysfunction of human psychology.

These cycles have occurred before in history, except on different scales and technologies.

Good luck!

Great post, that last part is key. Depression have happened in the past but never on the scale that this one is on. The world has never seen a country with this high a level of debt and with a majority of its citizens in debt. This is going to be a very interesting ride indeed. One economist said in his view when the dust settles it will be like being in a multi-car crash on a interstate. Your car goes over the barrier and falls 30 feet and land in a tree and you survive. You look up and see death and carnage on the road above and your car dangling from tree limbs. You take a deep breath and say (phew). That is one scary tale but one I can definitely see. As for your mental disesaes outlook. We are starting to see that now. Many people are distilling under the weight of financial and social ruin. My wife is a psychologist and the things she tells me she hears and sees from her clients go from sad to down right scary.

[SadieMirsade]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

Great post, that last part is key. Depression have happened in the past but never on the scale that this one is on. The world has never seen a country with this high a level of debt and with a majority of its citizens in debt. This is going to be a very interesting ride indeed. One economist said in his view when the dust settles it will be like being in a multi-car crash on a interstate. Your car goes over the barrier and falls 30 feet and land in a tree and you survive. You look up and see death and carnage on the road above and your car dangling from tree limbs. You take a deep breath and say (phew). That is one scary tale but one I can definitely see. As for your mental disesaes outlook. We are starting to see that now. Many people are distilling under the weight of financial and social ruin. My wife is a psychologist and the things she tells me she hears and sees from her clients go from sad to down right scary.

Where are "the free market-evangelicals-for democracy" now? Instead of just counting abortions...shouldn't they also be looking at the suicide rates?

[noland123]

I believe we are in end times with the way the economy is,the rapture is near,beam me up Lord,take me home.

[SadieMirsade]

I just read this:

"The strength of the federal economic stimulus package is seriously diluted by the fact that many of the manufactured goods that will be purchased for the attempted recovery must be imported from outside the United States. America simply doesn't make lots of things, anymore. That means many billions of dollars that folks assumed would go towards fueling an American economic comeback, will instead provide work and paychecks to employees in other countries, that still have manufacturing bases. That's fine with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which is dominated by large multinational corporations - the same guys that began stripping the United States of manufacturing jobs decades ago"

"A true national recovery effort would mean re-industrialization, on a grand scale...." (as everything is made outside of the US)

"Every product that must be imported for the infrastructure project means a watering down of the stimulus impact of the dollars spent. You can't put people to work in American factories that don't exist."

[heydade]

worse. The people I feel sorry for are the people that are buying homes/condos that are under an HOA. With foreclosures continuing to mount and ARM's ready to reset again, people who are paying for example 150/month in HOA fee's will see their fee's increase to 300/month and have special assessments tacked on like 1,000 here....1,000 there. People just cannot fathom how bad the whole HOA thing is going to get ! When I bought my home 6 months ago, I made sure to buy in a non-HOA community....which is HARD to find nowadays.

[noland123]

Miami along with the rest of the country is going down the tubes. The good ole US of A is a second-rate country owing substantial debts to other countries while having lost its substantial industry to other countries it will find it self going into more debt..

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by noland123

Miami along with the rest of the country is going down the tubes. The good ole US of A is a second-rate country owing substantial debts to other countries while having lost its substantial industry to other countries it will find it self going into more debt..

America will stabilize. I just think people need to really ask themselves what does that "stabilization" look like. Anyone thinking it will be like the late 90s again when everyone was flush with credit card and home equity money, will be very very disappointed.

[SadieMirsade]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

America will stabilize. I just think people need to really ask themselves what does that "stabilization" look like. Anyone thinking it will be like the late 90s again when everyone was flush with credit card and home equity money, will be very very disappointed.

Gives us some idea....of what you think it'll look like?

[Leovigildo]

Sadie

Just like before Reagan did away with SEC 33.

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by SadieMirsade

Gives us some idea....of what you think it'll look like?

I would assume the 70s. But that is heavily dependent upon how people react to losing everything as well as how people react to the realization that the future they thought was in store for them wont be there. A friend of mine said to me once in frustration "you do what they tell you to do, you go to school, get your education and yet here you are with a crap job and nothing to show for it". Now imagine that on a wide scale. You are already starting to see reports of college students taking jobs highschool kids would have normally worked. You are starting to see signs of universities showing major distress as student enrollment falls off in many programs. I work in the higher education field and I am seeing that first hand. I dont have a crystal ball but I can safely say things will be much different.

Also as I think bale pointed out, I think mental problems are going to be far more prevallant. My wife works in the mental health field and she sees it a lot. One lady who was perfectly sane had to be hospitilized because of the extreme stress she was under, she was a lawyer (they are being laid off in huge numbers right now). Another lady who was also hospitlized was a teacher, again the stress. Think about the people you work with. There is always one or two people who are already a little off and when they lose their job they just lose it completely.

I was told a story about a guy in nashville who walked into a verizon and robbed everyone. Later they found him dead in his home. Left a note saying he had lost his job and he had to feed himself and his family. The poor man lost evrything and then he lost his mind.

Also as doggie and others have said they are hearing reports from cops about more and more crime and more and more bizarre acts. I have had two cops tell me they are seeing crazy stuff. One cop went as far as to say if the government doesn't do something soon "these people are going to eat each other". He made a point to tell me the people he is seeing going nuts are former middle class people who cant feed themselves.

I have tons of stories like this, and unemployment is still gowing up at a rapid pace. I think this year people are still holding on to the hope that Obama will bring real change. Once next year rolls around and its still more of the same, I think thats when it will get dicey. Heck they are already talking about a second stimulus package.

Again though, they could pull off a miracle. Here is to hoping.