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Old 02-26-2013, 07:51 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pugboy View Post
Doing some math, I think this outlet that is allowing 2.5 billion gallons of water a day to leave the upper great lakes amounts to about a 1 inch lowering of the upper great lakes. I don't think this is the cause of the dramatic drops and risings in the upper lakes. I think less snowfall/rain, less ice on the lakes in winter is helping cause most of this.

I sure would like to know how you got to this conclusion, also!

I've been reading a lot about the water loss of Lake Mi and Lake Superior (big diff between the two), but cannot find anything about your "doing the math," info.

Could you share your information?

best,
toodie
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Old 02-26-2013, 09:44 PM
 
Location: West Michigan
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I have to agree with pugboys evaluation. The volume of water (taken at low water datum) of both Lake Michigan and Lake Huron combined is 2,030 cubic miles which converts to 2,235,267,809,300,000 gallons (conversion done at "onlineconversions.com") if you divide that by 2.5 billion gallons per day it would take 894,107 days, which is 2449.6 years, to drain the Lake Michigan/Huron basin with NO more water added during that time. The average depth of the lakes is 237' (279' for Lake Michigan, 195' for Lake Huron), so the average depth is 2,844". So if it would take 2449.6 years to drain the lakes and the average depth is 2844" then it works out to just over 1.16" a year at 2.5 billion gallons a day being lost.

While I don't believe it is the sole source of the low water levels we are experiencing, I think it needs to be addressed sooner than later. I would tend to believe it is a combination of lower winter snowfalls in the region (lake effect doesn't do ANYTHING to raise the lake levels because it is just water that was taken from the Lakes, to fall as snow, then melt and return to the same lakes), warmer than historic winters, and WAY less ice-pack coverage during the winter months to reduce evaporation, and the drawing off of water through Lake St. Claire. We cannot dismiss the amount of water that the Chicago area draws from lake Michigan for it's water supply. The IL draw is limited to 2.1 Billion gallons per day, which is almost the same as the water amount being lost through Lake St. Clare, but has been going on for Decades longer. I moved away for many years from the Ludington area and when I returned back in 2004 I was shocked to be able to see open water in Lake MI all winter. Growing up, there was always ice-pack out as far as you could see every winter with no open water visible, I haven't seen that once since being back.

Last edited by Bydand; 02-26-2013 at 09:52 PM..
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Old 02-26-2013, 10:50 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bydand View Post
I have to agree with pugboys evaluation. The volume of water (taken at low water datum) of both Lake Michigan and Lake Huron combined is 2,030 cubic miles which converts to 2,235,267,809,300,000 gallons (conversion done at "onlineconversions.com") if you divide that by 2.5 billion gallons per day it would take 894,107 days, which is 2449.6 years, to drain the Lake Michigan/Huron basin with NO more water added during that time. The average depth of the lakes is 237' (279' for Lake Michigan, 195' for Lake Huron), so the average depth is 2,844". So if it would take 2449.6 years to drain the lakes and the average depth is 2844" then it works out to just over 1.16" a year at 2.5 billion gallons a day being lost.

While I don't believe it is the sole source of the low water levels we are experiencing, I think it needs to be addressed sooner than later. I would tend to believe it is a combination of lower winter snowfalls in the region (lake effect doesn't do ANYTHING to raise the lake levels because it is just water that was taken from the Lakes, to fall as snow, then melt and return to the same lakes), warmer than historic winters, and WAY less ice-pack coverage during the winter months to reduce evaporation, and the drawing off of water through Lake St. Claire. We cannot dismiss the amount of water that the Chicago area draws from lake Michigan for it's water supply. The IL draw is limited to 2.1 Billion gallons per day, which is almost the same as the water amount being lost through Lake St. Clare, but has been going on for Decades longer. I moved away for many years from the Ludington area and when I returned back in 2004 I was shocked to be able to see open water in Lake MI all winter. Growing up, there was always ice-pack out as far as you could see every winter with no open water visible, I haven't seen that once since being back.

Very interesting! I remember seeing on Discovery TV or some program similar, about how Lake Michigan has a most unusual bottom ground level (if that's what you would refer to it as) compared to Superior, in that it varies tremendously from depth to shallowness throughout the lake.

So if there is massive lake water loss, some areas may show up as islands, and others would remain under water.

I wonder if the lake's pollution levels have anything to do with the amount of ice that forms in winter. Chemicals surely have to have some influence on ice formation, and molecular structure, I would think.

They say now that the lake levels are not recovearable, though. Something is happening, and it's not happening to Superior, so why is it happening in Lake Michigan to this extent. That's what I'm trying to figure out.

Thanks for your info. It was informative and interesting.
best,
toodie
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Old 02-27-2013, 10:43 AM
 
Location: West Michigan
12,082 posts, read 38,740,525 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toodie View Post
Very interesting! I remember seeing on Discovery TV or some program similar, about how Lake Michigan has a most unusual bottom ground level (if that's what you would refer to it as) compared to Superior, in that it varies tremendously from depth to shallowness throughout the lake.

So if there is massive lake water loss, some areas may show up as islands, and others would remain under water.
All of the Lakes have a varied bottom with Lake Superior and Lake Michigan having the most varied bottoms. The difference is mainly that Superior is so much deeper overall.


Quote:
I wonder if the lake's pollution levels have anything to do with the amount of ice that forms in winter. Chemicals surely have to have some influence on ice formation, and molecular structure, I would think.
I would highly doubt it. The pollution levels now are lower than they were 20 years ago, and far lower than they were 40 years ago.


Quote:
They say now that the lake levels are not recoverable, though. Something is happening, and it's not happening to Superior, so why is it happening in Lake Michigan to this extent. That's what I'm trying to figure out.

Thanks for your info. It was informative and interesting.
best,
toodie
Who says they are unrecoverable? And if someone is saying that, what do they base it on? The levels JUST dropped below the all time lowest level, by an inch or two and the system has recovered before. To say they are UN-recoverable because they were a couple inches lower than they were in the 60's is ridiculous and not even good science. As for it not happening in Lake Superior or the other Great Lakes is simply not true. Lake Superior is below normal levels, just not record breaking levels yet. Most articles you read that point the finger at the dredging done in Lake St. Clare also mention the 10+ years of lower than average rainfall and snowfall, and the naturally occurring fluctuations in the water levels while ignoring the amount drawn off by the Chicago area which is almost equal to the amount lost through the dredged area by Detroit. Water Levels as of this week for Lakes Michigan & Huron are 1 inch higher than the lowest level for the month of February. Compared to 1 year ago Lakes Michigan/Huron is 13 inches lower, but Lake Erie is 20 inches lower, and Lake Ontario is 18 inches lower. For the next month Lake Superior is forecast to drop another inch while Lakes Michigan and Huron are forecast to rise another inch.
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Old 02-27-2013, 03:49 PM
 
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I'm just trying to educate myself about it and don't claim to be an expert, but after more research I see that things are way different now than in the '60s. Fracking, for example.

Back in the '60s, humans weren't doing such damage to the great lakes.

In a statement from the Shedd Acquarium:

"The Great Lakes are a one-time gift from glaciers that melted tens of thousands of years ago. Though these great expanses of water may appear to be a never-ending resource, each year only 1 percent of the Great Lakes water gets replenished."

Michigan fracking is using more water than any other state in the nation. The more I find out, the scarier it gets. Would be nice if everything was as it was, and the Lake would recover.

Sierra Club ~ Great Lakes Blog: Water Levels, Fracking; Are we Great Lakers?

best,
toodie



[LEFT][/LEFT]
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Old 02-27-2013, 07:41 PM
 
Location: Grand Rapids Metro
8,882 posts, read 19,787,342 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bydand View Post
I have to agree with pugboys evaluation. The volume of water (taken at low water datum) of both Lake Michigan and Lake Huron combined is 2,030 cubic miles which converts to 2,235,267,809,300,000 gallons (conversion done at "onlineconversions.com") if you divide that by 2.5 billion gallons per day it would take 894,107 days, which is 2449.6 years, to drain the Lake Michigan/Huron basin with NO more water added during that time. The average depth of the lakes is 237' (279' for Lake Michigan, 195' for Lake Huron), so the average depth is 2,844". So if it would take 2449.6 years to drain the lakes and the average depth is 2844" then it works out to just over 1.16" a year at 2.5 billion gallons a day being lost.

While I don't believe it is the sole source of the low water levels we are experiencing, I think it needs to be addressed sooner than later. I would tend to believe it is a combination of lower winter snowfalls in the region (lake effect doesn't do ANYTHING to raise the lake levels because it is just water that was taken from the Lakes, to fall as snow, then melt and return to the same lakes), warmer than historic winters, and WAY less ice-pack coverage during the winter months to reduce evaporation, and the drawing off of water through Lake St. Claire. We cannot dismiss the amount of water that the Chicago area draws from lake Michigan for it's water supply. The IL draw is limited to 2.1 Billion gallons per day, which is almost the same as the water amount being lost through Lake St. Clare, but has been going on for Decades longer. I moved away for many years from the Ludington area and when I returned back in 2004 I was shocked to be able to see open water in Lake MI all winter. Growing up, there was always ice-pack out as far as you could see every winter with no open water visible, I haven't seen that once since being back.
But that would make sense. If it's 1" per year, and this has been occurring since dredging started back in the 1960's. It's only recently that it has been accelerating, according to recent reports. If you drop 10" in the next decade, from approximately from where we are today, the port cities will be in dire straits. You wouldn't have to empty out the lakes to make things really bad.
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Old 02-28-2013, 01:26 PM
 
Location: West Michigan
12,082 posts, read 38,740,525 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magellan View Post
But that would make sense. If it's 1" per year, and this has been occurring since dredging started back in the 1960's. It's only recently that it has been accelerating, according to recent reports. If you drop 10" in the next decade, from approximately from where we are today, the port cities will be in dire straits. You wouldn't have to empty out the lakes to make things really bad.
Don't forget though that in the 80's Lake Michigan and Lake Huron were at their all time high levels since records started being kept in 1918.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying the low water isn't a problem, because it is. What I am saying is that pointing fingers at one issue or two issues and saying that they are the ones that are causing the water level problems isn't correct. There re a multitude of reasons, not the least of which is warmer summers and winters and a lack of ice cover to stop evaporation during the winter months.
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Old 02-28-2013, 01:39 PM
 
Location: Loving life in Gaylord!
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And don't forget...all of our water also flows out to the Atlantic ocean. Thats millions of gallons daily..coming from all ready low lake levels.
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:28 PM
 
Location: West Michigan
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One study done by the Wisconsin DNR back in 2006 put the DAILY evaporation of Lake Michigan alone during the Sept-Dec Months at 55-110 BILLION gallons a day. Expand that time frame a couple of months and that explains where MOST of the water level drop comes from. It isn't from fracking, dredging, or any man-made draws like water bottling and selling to the Chinese; the major culprit is evaporation which is extended for longer in the season due to less ice cover making the situation worse. Couple that with lower than normal rainfall and snowfall and the problem is accelerated further.
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Old 02-28-2013, 03:06 PM
 
7,077 posts, read 4,689,236 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bydand View Post
One study done by the Wisconsin DNR back in 2006 put the DAILY evaporation of Lake Michigan alone during the Sept-Dec Months at 55-110 BILLION gallons a day. Expand that time frame a couple of months and that explains where MOST of the water level drop comes from. It isn't from fracking, dredging, or any man-made draws like water bottling and selling to the Chinese; the major culprit is evaporation which is extended for longer in the season due to less ice cover making the situation worse. Couple that with lower than normal rainfall and snowfall and the problem is accelerated further.

Key word: explains where "MOST" of the .....
You have to admit that the other things add to the problem, though.


The billions of gallons of water loss through man-made problems is an extremely high volume. We shouldn't compare the two and then say, well, man is causing less problems than evaporation so all is well, let them continue doing so.


Thank you for all of your info and responses, everyone.
best,
toodie
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