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Old 04-19-2020, 09:49 PM
 
Location: Michigan
4,647 posts, read 8,551,660 times
Reputation: 3775

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparrow_temp View Post

And in case you missed it, the Santa Clara study indicates that our confirmed number of people who have gotten the Wuhan virus are way off -- up to 50-85x off which makes the lethality figures off by that same amount too.
https://www.livescience.com/coronavi...nta-clara.html
This has been the assumption by many (including me) who are following this virus at all. It's way more infectious and much less lethal than all of the models have predicted.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdhpa View Post
This was clear from the data from Italy before any lock downs were instituted in the US. Either the infection rate was orders of magnitude larger than believed (and the death rate orders of magnitude lower), or for some reason younger people were getting infected at a rate orders of magnitude lower than older people. The former seems more likely, and the Stanford (Santa Clara) study agrees with that.

Here's a (small) study by Mass General Hospital that shows the actual infection rate is likely much larger than believed:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/...e-coronavirus/
A much more infectious virus means much more of the population is exposed to it. Therefore it's going to have a higher volume of deaths if everything equal.

0.2% of 3 billion is still a bigger number than 1% of 200,000,000. A lower death rate =/= less catastrophic.
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Old 04-20-2020, 09:18 AM
 
Location: On the water.
21,589 posts, read 16,114,085 times
Reputation: 19658
FAMILY OF FIRST CHILD TO DIE FROM CORONAVIRUS IN MICHIGAN EXPRESS SUPPORT FOR GOVERNOR GRETCHEN WHITMER'S LOCKDOWN

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus...erbert-1498877
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Old 04-20-2020, 10:06 AM
 
4,861 posts, read 9,261,558 times
Reputation: 7761
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tulemutt View Post
FAMILY OF FIRST CHILD TO DIE FROM CORONAVIRUS IN MICHIGAN EXPRESS SUPPORT FOR GOVERNOR GRETCHEN WHITMER'S LOCKDOWN

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus...erbert-1498877
I don't think that most people oppose the actual "stay home, stay safe" order since it is a pretty general idea that most governors have implemented. If people seriously object to a basic "stay home, stay safe" order then they are pretty silly.

I think most of the hullabaloo in Michigan has been about the details of the lockdown, such as being allowed to use a rowboat but not being allowed to use a motor boat of the same size, or not being allowed to buy garden seeds in a store but being allowed to by liquor and lottery tickets. It really is pretty random and haphazard in some ways.

I don't have a dog in this fight, I am blessed to still be able to work since my job was a work from home position before COVID-19, and I will get by on whatever I am told, assuming that it doesn't last well into May or even June. I get that she is very green and still learning, so I cut her some slack for that. She must be feeling so overwhelmed and in over her head, not that she would ever say that.
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Old 04-20-2020, 10:18 AM
 
495 posts, read 320,107 times
Reputation: 1127
Quote:
Originally Posted by canudigit View Post
I don't know what part of the state you're in, but where we live (extreme southeast corner) the grass certainly needs cut, I just did ours a few days ago, the day before it snowed. Yards that haven't been cut yet are definitely looking pretty ratty.
I'm in West Michigan, close enough to Lake Michigan that the planting zone is 6b.
Even our weeds haven't started growing yet, but we do have some flowers. I found a couple tulips popping up yesterday in the lawn. My husband says the squirrels dig them up and replant them.
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Old 04-20-2020, 10:38 AM
 
2,690 posts, read 1,589,021 times
Reputation: 9906
Quote:
Originally Posted by canudigit View Post
I think most of the hullabaloo in Michigan has been about the details of the lockdown, such as being allowed to use a rowboat but not being allowed to use a motor boat of the same size
I think the answer to that one is simple. Motor boats mean FUN! and people will start having their friends/neighbors/relatives over, which trashes the entire plan of social distancing.

A friend of mine in the Detroit suburbs has next door neighbors that are playing basketball very late into the night, partying, having 3-4 cars of friends over, obviously breaking all the rules, and regular rules too--quiet time starts at 10 pm in most localities before the virus. No, they're not black people. They're "good ole boys". He doesn't call the police because of the potential for vandalism.
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Old 04-20-2020, 10:56 AM
 
2,669 posts, read 2,596,384 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canudigit View Post
I don't think that most people oppose the actual "stay home, stay safe" order since it is a pretty general idea that most governors have implemented. If people seriously object to a basic "stay home, stay safe" order then they are pretty silly.
I know two families that have sold one of their cars (so far) to get through this.

I know another family whose daughter won't be going back to college in the fall because of this.

I know a restaurant owner who told me if he doesn't get the government small business loan to see him through this soon, he'll have to close his restaurant. And the loan he took out to open the restaurant is secured by his home.

I'm personally not affected by this shut down (at least not yet, and I'm very grateful for that). For anyone else who isn't affected, I'm very happy for you too.

But from reading this thread, I wonder if there aren't a lot of people out there who don't understand how devastating this is for millions of people. I wouldn't call anyone silly for questioning if a total shut down was actually required, or if something less disruptive would have been similarly effective. It's a fair question, and it deserves serious consideration.
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Old 04-20-2020, 11:14 AM
 
2,690 posts, read 1,589,021 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdhpa View Post
I wouldn't call anyone silly for questioning if a total shut down was actually required, or if something less disruptive would have been similarly effective. It's a fair question, and it deserves serious consideration.
We will never know because we will never be able to compare the numbers. What we do know is this virus is so extremely contagious it grows exponentially. I think a lot of people do not understand what exponential growth is.
This is all unprecedented in our lifetime, nobody is sure exactly what to do, but what we have to go on is the 1918 flu pandemic. Philadelphia did not cancel their parade and the results were devastating. This article is an excellent example of what happened in numbers of cases and deaths comparing Philadelphia and St. Louis, which did put in place strong distancing measures.

https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-th...tancing-works/

Look at the graph comparing those two cities. The difference is shocking.

I feel for anybody who is having a difficult time. Nobody knew this was coming, well, many did back in early January, but that's another discussion. I do think now though the wise advice to always have six months of emergency funding available is something that after this, more Americans will take seriously.

I believe if we all have a little patience, practice extreme social distancing through the end of the month, that Whitmer and the forces that be will see the numbers decrease enough to allow some return to work, some return to outdoor activies. Governors of 7 states are discussing and implementing these changes in coordination.
The strictness of that decision is based on what YOU and ME do. A small percentage could ruin it for all.
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Old 04-20-2020, 11:16 AM
 
Location: On the water.
21,589 posts, read 16,114,085 times
Reputation: 19658
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdhpa View Post
I know two families that have sold one of their cars (so far) to get through this.

I know another family whose daughter won't be going back to college in the fall because of this.

I know a restaurant owner who told me if he doesn't get the government small business loan to see him through this soon, he'll have to close his restaurant. And the loan he took out to open the restaurant is secured by his home.

I'm personally not affected by this shut down (at least not yet, and I'm very grateful for that). For anyone else who isn't affected, I'm very happy for you too.

But from reading this thread, I wonder if there aren't a lot of people out there who don't understand how devastating this is for millions of people. I wouldn't call anyone silly for questioning if a total shut down was actually required, or if something less disruptive would have been similarly effective. It's a fair question, and it deserves serious consideration.
Pretty sure no one is throwing up any barriers to such a discussion... go for it. What would you suggest would be “less disruptive” while equally effective?

As for people “out there who don’t understand” ... always the case. There are also a LOT of people out there who have no idea about how much deeper personal sacrifice can be than a few months of inconvenience and loss of revenue (which, for most, can be significantly managed by all the government, financial and business support offers: rent, mortgage, consumer debt, taxes, student loans, food banks, insurance, ... and a host more). Military families, for example, accept multiple deployments of 6 months to over a year at a stretch, of separations and related challenges, ... often at risk of life. This shut down is a couple of months, once in a life time.

Pain and suffering are relative. You’ll all get through this without much if any scarring.
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Old 04-20-2020, 11:38 AM
 
2,669 posts, read 2,596,384 times
Reputation: 5238
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tulemutt View Post
Pretty sure no one is throwing up any barriers to such a discussion... go for it. What would you suggest would be “less disruptive” while equally effective?
Quarantine people in the high risk groups, let businesses stay open.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Tulemutt View Post
As for people “out there who don’t understand” ... always the case. There are also a LOT of people out there who have no idea about how much deeper personal sacrifice can be than a few months of inconvenience and loss of revenue (which, for most, can be significantly managed by all the government, financial and business support offers: rent, mortgage, consumer debt, taxes, student loans, food banks, insurance, ... and a host more). Military families, for example, accept multiple deployments of 6 months to over a year at a stretch, of separations and related challenges, ... often at risk of life. This shut down is a couple of months, once in a life time.

Pain and suffering are relative. You’ll all get through this without much if any scarring.
The bolded above are examples of why I suspect the consequences aren't fully appreciated.

Losing everything you've worked for in your life can't be adequately described as an inconvenience, especially for someone closing in on retirement who doesn't have much time left to recover.

Losing your business and home, not knowing how you're going to support yourself or where you and your family are going to live, are more serious than a loss of revenue.

I consider these consequences pretty scarring. They may not be as bad as being drafted into WWII, but they shouldn't be diminished.
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Old 04-20-2020, 12:24 PM
 
Location: On the water.
21,589 posts, read 16,114,085 times
Reputation: 19658
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdhpa View Post
Quarantine people in the high risk groups, let businesses stay open.




The bolded above are examples of why I suspect the consequences aren't fully appreciated.

Losing everything you've worked for in your life can't be adequately described as an inconvenience, especially for someone closing in on retirement who doesn't have much time left to recover.

Losing your business and home, not knowing how you're going to support yourself or where you and your family are going to live, are more serious than a loss of revenue.

I consider these consequences pretty scarring. They may not be as bad as being drafted into WWII, but they shouldn't be diminished.
There’s not a lot of data and information to draw on to determine who constitute “high risk groups” yet. Seniors? Yeah, true of the seasonal flu too ... but there’s a LOT more to learn yet about the ways this might impact everybody.

As for “losing everything” etc. you’re guessing that a large number of people will? Based on what? As I pointed out: there are so many programs and offers coming out to postpone and defer and recast debt and other obligations that “losing everything” isn’t likely to be common. At all. Not if a person has any nerve and fortitude along with a speck of intelligence.

Sorry, but I’m in my 70’s and have served a military career including multiple combat tours ... raised my three kids part of their youth as a single parent after their mother, love of my life, died in my arms ... I’ve been evacuated to hospitals / operating rooms several times for both physical damage and disease, twice heard opinions that I’d likely not pull through - and other struggles I consider greater in threat and impact than this virus. I don‘t expect most people to cheat the reaper as I have ... but I’m saying: this is serious business, that deserves serious response ... AND calm, rational response. Pearl-clutching, hand-wringing, hair-on-fire panic not called for. Just get a grip and keep your hats on in the wind.

Good luck, everybody. Nearly everyone will get by without much, if any, scarring.
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