[YAZ]

Originally Posted by magellan

I'm starting to not be able to tell what is sarcasm and what is not. You can mow your lawn. You can also pay someone to mow your lawn if they live in the same household (your kid for instance). Actually, if you paid the neighbor kid to mow your lawn, I don't think you'd get busted for it, as long as they stayed outside.

Hi Magellan!

I'm commenting remotely from Phoenix; not feeling the "pain" that my fellow Michiganders are going through. My Mom lives in an HOA community in Livingston County that has a specific lawn service work on their yards (condos).

While certainly not a serious issue, she's by herself staring at it all day.

[YAZ]

Originally Posted by NoMansLands

We will never know because we will never be able to compare the numbers. What we do know is this virus is so extremely contagious it grows exponentially. I think a lot of people do not understand what exponential growth is.
This is all unprecedented in our lifetime, nobody is sure exactly what to do, but what we have to go on is the 1918 flu pandemic. Philadelphia did not cancel their parade and the results were devastating. This article is an excellent example of what happened in numbers of cases and deaths comparing Philadelphia and St. Louis, which did put in place strong distancing measures.

https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-th...tancing-works/

Look at the graph comparing those two cities. The difference is shocking.

I feel for anybody who is having a difficult time. Nobody knew this was coming, well, many did back in early January, but that's another discussion. I do think now though the wise advice to always have six months of emergency funding available is something that after this, more Americans will take seriously.

I believe if we all have a little patience, practice extreme social distancing through the end of the month, that Whitmer and the forces that be will see the numbers decrease enough to allow some return to work, some return to outdoor activies. Governors of 7 states are discussing and implementing these changes in coordination.
The strictness of that decision is based on what YOU and ME do. A small percentage could ruin it for all.

And this is why I'm not against a total shutdown. The 1918 pandemic ran four waves through Phoenix, AZ. Number two was the real killer.

In the same breath, I'm seeing a whole bunch of retail shut down for good. This flu is devastating.

[jakebarnes]

go ahead and "own the libs" by ignoring restrictions. I swear if a Democrat passed a law that people couldn't eat dog poop, there would be a few idiots who would run to the dog park to scarf it down and "own the libs".

Michigan has a few weird restrictions, but we are all mostly dealing with the same thing. Considering MI is amongst the hardest hit states, what are the other options?

It's a no win situation - if she did nothing, the same people would complain. Knee jerk non-thinking.

[Sparrow_temp]

There are going to be very few people left unscarred by this virus but mostly because of the government's overreaction to it. If you own a business that's been shutdown by the government, you've probably lost everything you put into it and will never see it re-open. Invested in the stock market, you've probably lost a good portion of whatever savings was there. Think you don't fit into those categories, most people are working for small businesses. Some people think that just because the government is sending them a paycheck that this is just a paid vacation until they realize that they'll have no job to go back to and those checks will soon stop. The only really safe jobs are those in government -- the same people who are destroying everybody else's livelihood and are telling us to obey every new rule that infringes on your Constitutional rights have nothing to worry about themselves. This shouldn't surprise you. It's who they are -- they become so removed from everyday Americans that they don't even see the harm that they are doing or just don't care.

And if you think Michigan is hard hit, it's not. One area of MI is hard hit and that's Detroit. Anywhere there's an airport hub got hit harder than other places. Northern MI hardly has any cases and should not be under the same restrictions as the larger cities. If you're healthy and have no underlying conditions, you have little to fear from this virus but you have a LOT to fear from your government. The government didn't take away your civil rights in 1918 over the flu like they are with this virus.

[jdhpa]

Originally Posted by jdhpa

This was clear from the data from Italy before any lock downs were instituted in the US. Either the infection rate was orders of magnitude larger than believed (and the death rate orders of magnitude lower), or for some reason younger people were getting infected at a rate orders of magnitude lower than older people. The former seems more likely, and the Stanford (Santa Clara) study agrees with that.

Here's a (small) study by Mass General Hospital that shows the actual infection rate is likely much larger than believed:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/...e-coronavirus/

USC did a similar study in Los Angeles, same results:

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...ting-la-county

[magellan]

Originally Posted by michigan lizard

I'm in West Michigan, close enough to Lake Michigan that the planting zone is 6b.
Even our weeds haven't started growing yet, but we do have some flowers. I found a couple tulips popping up yesterday in the lawn. My husband says the squirrels dig them up and replant them.

I'm in Grand Rapids, our weeds have definitely started growing. You can have mine.

I put down crabgrass preventer about a week ago because the ground was warming up (Three 70 degree days and it germinates and it's too late). And that's 70 degrees on the ground, not in the air, according to my Dad who was a farmer.

Grass does not need to be mowed yet but I think in about a week it will.

Also, for those saying you can't get cancer treatments now at hospitals because they're considered elective, that is not true from what I am hearing from people I know in healthcare. I would ask around. Maybe not at Beaumont Hospital but the ones that aren't even at capacity yet, which is 90% of the hospitals in Michigan..

[magellan]

Originally Posted by Sparrow_temp

There are going to be very few people left unscarred by this virus but mostly because of the government's overreaction to it. If you own a business that's been shutdown by the government, you've probably lost everything you put into it and will never see it re-open. Invested in the stock market, you've probably lost a good portion of whatever savings was there. Think you don't fit into those categories, most people are working for small businesses. Some people think that just because the government is sending them a paycheck that this is just a paid vacation until they realize that they'll have no job to go back to and those checks will soon stop. The only really safe jobs are those in government -- the same people who are destroying everybody else's livelihood and are telling us to obey every new rule that infringes on your Constitutional rights have nothing to worry about themselves. This shouldn't surprise you. It's who they are -- they become so removed from everyday Americans that they don't even see the harm that they are doing or just don't care.

And if you think Michigan is hard hit, it's not. One area of MI is hard hit and that's Detroit. Anywhere there's an airport hub got hit harder than other places. Northern MI hardly has any cases and should not be under the same restrictions as the larger cities. If you're healthy and have no underlying conditions, you have little to fear from this virus but you have a LOT to fear from your government. The government didn't take away your civil rights in 1918 over the flu like they are with this virus.

I assume that my retirement accounts will go back up again. In fact, my mutual funds are pretty diversified and are constantly buying and selling, so the number of shares I own now are exponentially more than a few months ago, which bodes well as stocks rebound.

But yes, many small businesses, particularly restaurants, coffee shops, breweries and small retailers are toast and will not be reopening. Even if they reopen when restrictions are slowly lifted, they won't be able to survive long with a lot less traffic (because many people will still be freaked out to go out in public).

It's a really effing sick irony that this virus will make mega corporations even bigger. Get used to having 3 chain restaurants to pick from in 6 months, if you want to go out to eat.

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by magellan

I assume that my retirement accounts will go back up again. In fact, my mutual funds are pretty diversified and are constantly buying and selling, so the number of shares I own now are exponentially more than a few months ago, which bodes well as stocks rebound.

But yes, many small businesses, particularly restaurants, coffee shops, breweries and small retailers are toast and will not be reopening. Even if they reopen when restrictions are slowly lifted, they won't be able to survive long with a lot less traffic (because many people will still be freaked out to go out in public).

It's a really effing sick irony that this virus will make mega corporations even bigger. Get used to having 3 chain restaurants to pick from in 6 months, if you want to go out to eat.

Mmm ... gotta moderate the moderator here. No, I don’t mean I see any violations of TOS.

I like your observations about the long-term health of your retirement accounts / stocks rebounds, etc. But the comments about small business failures are speculation with far less bases: we don’t know the depth of those losses because we don’t know how long the shut downs will continue for what categories of businesses ... nor do we know the future consumer confidence levels, because a lot of that will depend of what emerges in treatments and in vaccines, and how quickly. We also don't know the extent and availability of small business rescue programs being rolled out.

A couple things we do know about small business, however, is that it is as much the backbone of this entire world as are big corporations. Small entrepreneurial ventures are in human DNA since we emerged from Paleolithic cave dwelling into Neolithic age of civilizations 10,000 years ago.

And among the highest % of small businesses we find eateries. Restaurants do have the highest failure rate of all small businesses. But it is also the single most common start-up. For every one that might close after this, a greater number will start-up over a fairly short recovery time. Guaranteed.

[Giesela]

Michigan is one of 3 states that shut down construction. I talked to a small family business builder yesterday and he is so upset. His employees aren't getting their unemployment, he was trying to get some sort of small business help loan from the govt that just disappeared on them. He is in real danger of going under.
I'll be unhappy if the stay at home goes into May. I'll be furious if some restrictions for people to earn a living aren't lifted.
Construction guys wear masks are are 6ft away from people most of the time anyway.

Wisconsin has extended their stay at home to May 26? Michigan is in this group or alliance or whatever it is. Wondering if we will follow suit

[MI1287]

Originally Posted by Giesela

Michigan is one of 3 states that shut down construction. I talked to a small family business builder yesterday and he is so upset. His employees aren't getting their unemployment, he was trying to get some sort of small business help loan from the govt that just disappeared on them. He is in real danger of going under.
I'll be unhappy if the stay at home goes into May. I'll be furious if some restrictions for people to earn a living aren't lifted.
Construction guys wear masks are are 6ft away from people most of the time anyway.

Wisconsin has extended their stay at home to May 26? Michigan is in this group or alliance or whatever it is. Wondering if we will follow suit

I would be absolutely shocked if we did not. She has hinted at some loosening of restrictions come May 1st but they will likely be extremely minor.