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This Chinese virus has a mortality rate similar to a bad flu. These restrictions to basic living were never necessary before and would not be now if actual data was available when it started. Everybody predicted the worst in the absence of data because nobody cares if you overestimate a problem. The people in charge simply take credit for any reductions in infection or deaths when the model is wrong. Those same people in power are not going to give up their newly acquired power over others until they're forced to do so. Most of the population is still scared because of the 24/7 overhyped stories on this virus and haven't considered how much freedom they've given up and what their economic loss is going to be. This all has to end VERY soon or it never will.
I encourage everybody to reassess the situation with the data that is now available. Any reasonable risk analysis will show that we need to get this country fully operational again and remove all restrictions on people except those who are at special risk -- mainly hospital workers and the elderly. For everybody else, if you get sick -- you'll get better and then have immunity. This is not some apocalyptic virus where everybody infected dies. We shouldn't be hiding in our homes in fear of something that you have little control over anyway.
Estimated flu deaths in USA by CDC this year: 29K-59K
2018-2019: 34K
2017-2018: 61K (bad flu year)
Estimated projected deaths by the China Virus in this country is now 60K. Therefore the conclusion is that this is no more lethal than a bad flu is validated unless you doubt the current modeling of 60K and the models have overstated so far. It's went from 2200K to 240K to 100K to 80K to now 60K as the data has come in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by animatedmartian
By every measure, COVID-19 has killed more people more quickly than any flu virus in the last 10 years. The often cited flu statistics usually includes multiple strains of the virus, like Swine Flu as well as deaths caused by pneumonia.
It took the Swine Flu one whole year to kill 12,000 Americans or roughly 32 people per day.
In the last 10 days, COVID-19 has caused more than 1,000 American deaths per day.
This time 1 month ago, 38 Americans had died from COVID-19. Today it's 20,000.
In fact, COVID-19 as of April 9th, accounted for 7% of all deaths in the US for that week. Influenza was 0.6% and pneumonia excluding flu was 7.2%.
So now there's no using "it's not as bad as the flu" as an excuse when it is now factually worse. And mind you, this is after social distancing was put in place to slow the spread.
The governor’s first order was pretty clear and unambiguous- essential stores were to maintain the minimum staffing necessary to maintain operations. Stores like the depot were calling in extra staff to mix paint. The depot in my hometown was parked out to the street with idiots who were buying non essential supplies. That action by the uninformed transformed the depot into a disease vector.. more dangerous than normal simply because it was one of the few places open, and thousands of carriers were walking through fewer doors, and shorter hours. Further, anyone who actually needed something “essential” was placed at much higher risk of infection due to the increased non-essential business.
This Chinese virus has a mortality rate similar to a bad flu. These restrictions to basic living were never necessary before and would not be now if actual data was available when it started. Everybody predicted the worst in the absence of data because nobody cares if you overestimate a problem. The people in charge simply take credit for any reductions in infection or deaths when the model is wrong. Those same people in power are not going to give up their newly acquired power over others until they're forced to do so. Most of the population is still scared because of the 24/7 overhyped stories on this virus and haven't considered how much freedom they've given up and what their economic loss is going to be. This all has to end VERY soon or it never will.
I encourage everybody to reassess the situation with the data that is now available. Any reasonable risk analysis will show that we need to get this country fully operational again and remove all restrictions on people except those who are at special risk -- mainly hospital workers and the elderly. For everybody else, if you get sick -- you'll get better and then have immunity. This is not some apocalyptic virus where everybody infected dies. We shouldn't be hiding in our homes in fear of something that you have little control over anyway.
By every measure, COVID-19 has killed more people more quickly than any flu virus in the last 10 years. The often cited flu statistics usually includes multiple strains of the virus, like Swine Flu as well as deaths caused by pneumonia.
It took the Swine Flu one whole year to kill 12,000 Americans or roughly 32 people per day.
In the last 10 days, COVID-19 has caused more than 1,000 American deaths per day.
This time 1 month ago, 38 Americans had died from COVID-19. Today it's 20,000.
In fact, COVID-19 as of April 9th, accounted for 7% of all deaths in the US for that week. Influenza was 0.6% and pneumonia excluding flu was 7.2%.
So now there's no using "it's not as bad as the flu" as an excuse when it is now factually worse. And mind you, this is after social distancing was put in place to slow the spread.
Social distancing is more like stage drama or play-acting. It is good as comic relief and little else. The hand-washing, and perhaps increased sleep from the shutdown probably has more to do with the beneficial slowdown. Or most likely, the silent spread of immunity. What is looked on as an alarming development, the discovery of asymptomatic carriers, is really the development of almost universal immunity. That's not as strange as it sounds; a virus would be most unsuccessful if it killed or immobilized most of its hosts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparrow_temp
Estimated flu deaths in USA by CDC this year: 29K-59K
2018-2019: 34K
2017-2018: 61K (bad flu year)
Estimated projected deaths by the China Virus in this country is now 60K. Therefore the conclusion is that this is no more lethal than a bad flu is validated unless you doubt the current modeling of 60K and the models have overstated so far. It's went from 2200K to 240K to 100K to 80K to now 60K as the data has come in.
To be fair, it was frighteningly rapid and when it does kill the deaths are horrible.
She didn't spell out some of the subrules, then employers will force their employee to go to work and risk their life. It is better to stay in safer side. Its easy for us to say "why can't the low skill worker, come clean mow my lawn" but realize just as you have been home staying safe, that employee getting minimal wage wants to stay in and be safe.
Its easy for us to say "why can't the low skill worker, come clean mow my lawn" but realize just as you have been home staying safe, that employee getting minimal wage wants to stay in and be safe.
Not the ones I know. If someone doesn't believe the virus is a serious threat to them personally, then being without an income is by far the bigger problem. And despite arguments to the contrary, the virus is mainly a threat to people over 60 or who have a preexisting condition:
I see actual fear in people, like I haven't seen since 2008/2009. They have no idea what's going to happen to them, what they're going to lose, or what they're going to do if they don't get to start working again soon. I know people who are selling their cars to get through this.
It's easy for someone to brush this off if they aren't affected or they have a financial cushion, but for people with little or no financial cushion, whose income has been cut off for an indeterminate amount of time, this is a true (financial) crisis.
Estimated flu deaths in USA by CDC this year: 29K-59K
2018-2019: 34K
2017-2018: 61K (bad flu year)
Estimated projected deaths by the China Virus in this country is now 60K. Therefore the conclusion is that this is no more lethal than a bad flu is validated unless you doubt the current modeling of 60K and the models have overstated so far. It's went from 2200K to 240K to 100K to 80K to now 60K as the data has come in.
That projection of 60K is based on current social distancing measures. We have limited this to not being any worse than the flu, for now at least.
The modeling is entirely dependent on people's behavior.
If social distancing measures were not in place, the number of deaths would grow close to exponentially until the population of those at most risk of dying pretty much died. That number could be anywhere from 60 to 100 million.
The data from Italy was available before it hit here.
The data from Italy made clear that the corona virus is a serious problem for people over 60, and people with preexisting medical conditions, but not much of a danger for everyone else. Here's the CDC data from the US which shows the same pattern ended up here:
People in the high risk groups above should have quarantined themselves, but everyone else could go about their daily lives with little (but non-zero, because it's always non-zero) risk. Maybe limit restaurants to every other table and similar measures to help slow the spread, but the lock downs are overkill.
Eventually states are going to lift their lock downs. When they do, other than perhaps New York there will be more people with the corona virus walking around than there were when the lock downs were put into effect, and people over 60 or with preexisting conditions will be just as much at risk if they contract it as they were before. Hopefully people in these high risk groups will protect themselves. But lifting the lock downs under these conditions does make it clear that the lock downs are an overreaction.
I hope our leaders understand, even if they don't admit it, that this was an overreaction, or this will become an annual event.
Just quarantining only the most vulnerable is still a huge section of the population. It would still have just as drastic economic consequences.
America's workforce that is aged over 60 is growing and removing them from the economy through quarantine would effectively destroy just as many companies as a full lockdown. This would be especially harmful at a time when the US had the lowest unemployment rate in decades. Companies wouldn't have any more workers and wouldn't be able to find people to hire.
Social distancing is more like stage drama or play-acting. It is good as comic relief and little else. The hand-washing, and perhaps increased sleep from the shutdown probably has more to do with the beneficial slowdown. Or most likely, the silent spread of immunity. What is looked on as an alarming development, the discovery of asymptomatic carriers, is really the development of almost universal immunity. That's not as strange as it sounds; a virus would be most unsuccessful if it killed or immobilized most of its hosts.
The definition of immunity is a person's immune system being able to destroy the virus completely and prevent it from spreading within themselves and to other people.
Asymptomatic carriers are still infected and able to spread the virus to others as well as still possibly developing symptoms at a later time.
It's not unusual for a disease to be asymptomatic, but it's unusual that a highly contagious one is asymptomatic. How else does it spread if those without symptoms aren't coughing, sneezing, or leaking bodily fluids everywhere? If people were becoming immune to the coronavirus, it would not spread to the extent that it has because it would be easy to track and would have died out at some point far before becoming a pandemic.
Yeah - it might kill the same number as the flu, here in the USA, ultimately - but it would still by any measure be much worse than the flu.
1. It killed that many in a month - not a five-month flu season - taxing the resources horribly in some spots.
2. It killed that FEW in that month - because of the crazy measures we all are taking.
3. There is zero - none - 0 - actually NOTHING - that would have limited it, in real life or in theory - had we not tried social isolation.
4. If you are arguing with #3, please forward your theory to the CDC - they need it. Not this forum. (Here are some hints though: It's not seasonal. It is not defeated with sunlight. It IS certainly highly contagious. It DOES certainly kill something like 0.5 - 1.0% of everyone that gets it. It DOES certainly work harder on folks with things like high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, and asthma - about half the USA. There is so far no natural immunity. There is no vaccine. There is no proof you can't get it twice. And you can definitely transmit it without symptoms. Did I miss anything?)
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