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Old 04-15-2021, 11:15 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highlanderfil View Post
Depends on how you look at it. No, it quite likely won't kill you if you're younger. But long Covid, which, by some estimates affects around a third of those who were infected, no matter how mildly, is a thing missing from many statistics.
I don't know what percentage of people will have long term effects, we'll have to wait and see. But, like the flu, eventually everyone will get covid, even if they get a vaccine every year. No vaccine is 100% effective, and there will be new variants every year that existing vaccines are less effective against, so eventually we'll all get it. Let's hope long term effects are rare, otherwise we're all in a lot of trouble no matter what.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DaniellaG View Post
Jdhpa I agree that the elderly and sick should of just been quarantined. I said that to my senior mom early on she wasn’t thrilled with that idea. I wanted to grocery shop for her and drop it outside her home but she wouldn’t let me. I don’t know how they would of enforced it but 80 percent of deaths were from that group of people
It can't be enforced, but it can be enabled for anyone who wants it. Given the alternative that was actually taken (shutting down businesses, highest unemployment in 80 years, trillions of dollars of deficit spending), dropping off food and other basic supplies once a week to people 65+ who want it for a year seems quite reasonable.

I read 40% of all deaths were people in nursing homes, and a similar percentage were people getting nursing home like care somewhere other than a nursing home (their own home I assume). While the logistics of quarantining people needing that type of care would be difficult, that group was easily identifiable, they wouldn't be any more restricted than they already are, and it would have dramatically reduced the death toll. And given how long this has gone on, even if it took a few months to get the logistics ironed out it would have had a huge impact.

Just taking the actions in the above two paragraphs would have significantly reduced the death toll and allowed the economy to remain mostly open.
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Old 04-16-2021, 08:40 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdhpa View Post
But, like the flu, eventually everyone will get covid, even if they get a vaccine every year. No vaccine is 100% effective, and there will be new variants every year that existing vaccines are less effective against, so eventually we'll all get it.
I get that anecdotal evidence is not evidence, but I've never had the flu. The phrase "everyone will get Covid" is misguided (at best) and used to spread propaganda and lies (at worst). This is why vaccination hesitation (if I'm being nice about it calling it that) drives me absolutely insane. The longer the vaccination effort drags on in its partial state, the higher the likelihood is for additional variants to develop and the longer we are going to be in this mess. It really doesn't have to be this way.
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Let's hope long term effects are rare, otherwise we're all in a lot of trouble no matter what.
We can hope all we want, but the initial signs aren't good.
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Just taking the actions in the above two paragraphs would have significantly reduced the death toll and allowed the economy to remain mostly open.
In an ideal world, you're right. However, even if that was done (correctly, which on the scale of a country as large as ours is nigh on impossible) you are ignoring the other 60%. People with obesity and other comorbidities who are not 65+ still have to be accounted for. 20% of the U.S. population is obese. How do you propose quarantining them, when many of them work in the same economy you're proposing to keep open? In fact, since obesity is inversely proportional to income, it's not hard to conclude that a disproportionate number of people with that particular comorbidity are employed in lower-paying (so, no medical benefits) service jobs. These are the people the stimulus packages should have helped primarily - not the office workers making $75K/year who kept their jobs working remotely (and who were/are much more likely to put the money away for a rainy day than stimulate the economy by going out and spending it). From the very beginning of the stimulus package discussions I've said that the pencil-shaped approach (where everyone below a certain income level got the same amount and then it started getting smaller towards the tip at higher income levels) was wrong. It should have been a triangle (where the base - the poorest - would get more) and it should have topped out at a much lower level. My wife and I didn't need the money, though we qualified for it; on the other hand, for someone making $20K/year from a waitressing job and losing even that income during the pandemic, $1,200 was not nearly enough.

Last edited by highlanderfil; 04-16-2021 at 09:21 AM..
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Old 04-16-2021, 09:01 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaniellaG View Post
The fact is for 7 weeks now MI has done worse than 45 to 49 other states.
Why are you so hyperfocused on the past 7 weeks and not the entirety of the pandemic? Yes, we're doing worse now, because we were doing better early on and delayed the rise until such time when increasing cases ≠ a sharp spike in deaths.
Quote:
For overall Covid deaths we are higher than 31 states.
Michigan is also the 10th most populous state. Absolute numbers are meaningless. You'd do a lot better saying we are the 21st state in per capita deaths (which we are). Same conclusion, different, actually meaningful, data. Not sure what that means, though. We're basically middle of the road.
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Even if the other states have done only marginally better there economy is functioning and people were able to live a more normal life.
Do you have hard evidence of economies in different states doing better or is it still "my friends in Florida" blah blah blah? I would love to see the actual numbers.
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I know depression and suicide rates especially have greatly increased
How do you know this? There's been no conclusive evidence of suicide rates increasing. In fact, there's evidence to the contrary.
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The only thing the delay in opening did was for businesses to not be able to survive and for people financially to be impacted.
It also ensured that the vulnerable groups had a chance to be vaccinated. Again, show proof that Michigan was more affected than the "open" states from a financial standpoint and I will agree with you. For now, it's just conjecture and supposition on your part.
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We won’t see the true financial impact for awhile since the government has been helping.
So, you just contradicted yourself, did you? People were affected but then they weren't, because the government was helping?
Quote:
Jdhpa I agree that the elderly and sick should of just been quarantined. I said that to my senior mom early on she wasn’t thrilled with that idea. I wanted to grocery shop for her and drop it outside her home but she wouldn’t let me. I don’t know how they would of enforced it but 80 percent of deaths were from that group of people
You say that as though that was so easy to do for everyone. How do you envision quarantining someone living in a multigenerational household, especially if their home doesn't have a completely separate area in which they can be housed? Your mom lives by herself (so does mine) and evidently is self-reliant. That's not the case for many others. The idea to sequester the most vulnerable in the same bubble is actually not an awful one, assuming the support staff is also able to be sequestered in the same bubble and have little to no interaction with the outside world. The problem is that this last bit is very difficult to execute - and once the bubble is broken, the virus is basically shooting fish in a barrel.
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The past few months if anything FL should of had higher numbers. There population increases with snowbirds. I lived in South FL and in my sub which had 6000 people 50 percent were there for around 4 months. Every state that is cold has people that travel in the winter. Just as many people in Ohio probably travel during the winter as MI. So why isn’t Ohio having the increased numbers like MI?
You're looking at it backwards. I'm saying Florida's numbers are likely lower than they should be for cases picked up in the state and carried elsewhere - not that MI numbers specifically are higher because of Florida. In fact, every one of the other states has cases exported from Florida. Including Ohio. The point, once again, is that these numbers don't count against Florida specifically and if they did, Florida (and Texas, though perhaps to a lesser degree) would see much higher numbers.
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I don’t have statistics on the financial impact us being shut down vs the states that weren’t but common sense says if a business is not open they can’t make money.
Common sense does say this. But when you are comparing us and other states without knowing exactly how many businesses closed here vs. there, "common sense" doesn't cut it. Every state had restrictions at some point. Every state was impacted.
Quote:
I understand some assistance was given but I don’t think in many cases it was enough.
"I don't think" is not an argument. You don't need to think. You can do your research (like I have, numerous times throughout these last two threads), since you feel so strongly about this, and get to a point where you know. This way you'll have conclusive proof rather than guessing. It's literally as easy as googling "which states were most economically affected by covid". Here, I even did it for you. Michigan dropped 7.5% of jobs year-over-year (February '20 to February '21). Florida dropped 6.2%, Texas 4.6%. Interestingly, most recently (January '21 to February '21) Michigan gained jobs (in fact, we were #1 in the country for month-over-month job performance), while Texas lost them and Florida was basically flat.

Here's another study in which MI, TX and FL are basically clumped together.

And another one, although it tops out at Q2 of last year.

Last edited by highlanderfil; 04-16-2021 at 09:42 AM..
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Old 04-16-2021, 09:40 AM
 
2,669 posts, read 2,595,533 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highlanderfil View Post
I get that anecdotal evidence is not evidence, but I've never had the flu. The phrase "everyone will get Covid" is misguided (at best) and used to spread propaganda and lies (at worst). This is why vaccination hesitation (if I'm being nice about it calling it that) drives me absolutely insane. The longer the vaccination effort drags on in its partial state, the higher the likelihood is for additional variants to develop and the longer we are going to be in this mess. It really doesn't have to be this way.
I rarely get the flu, but I've gotten it a couple of times. It happens. Yes, everyone will eventually get covid, just like they get the flu. If you haven't gotten the flu you're a rare, lucky exception, be happy. Like walking through a mine field blind folded and not stepping on a mine. If enough people try it some will be lucky and get through, but I wouldn't count on that.

I've had the covid vaccine already. If I live long enough (a normal life expectancy) I'll eventually get covid, and you will too. It's a contagious virus, I don't do wishful thinking.


Quote:
Originally Posted by highlanderfil View Post
We can hope all we want, but the initial signs aren't good.
Then we're all in a lot of trouble. Prepare for a world where 95% of the population has severe chronic health problems from a young age.


Quote:
Originally Posted by highlanderfil View Post
In an ideal world, you're right. However, even if that was done (correctly, which on the scale of a country as large as ours is nigh on impossible) you are ignoring the other 60%. People with obesity and other comorbidities who are not 65+ still have to be accounted for. 20% of the U.S. population is obese. How do you propose quarantining them, when many of them work in the same economy you're proposing to keep open?
Obesity, etc., is a lark. Yes it raises the likelihood of problems from covid vs an otherwise healthy, non-obese person. Something like 2x if I remember correctly. 2x (1 in 1,000,000) is (1 in 500,000). 1% (1 in 100) of Americans will eventually die in a car accident. I don't remember what the actual odds are (1 in 1,000,000 is an example), but it's tiny. Yes, obesity, et. Al. increase the odds of covid complications, but the odds are still tiny for an otherwise healthy person, very small compared to other risks we all face in life. Only people with significant health problems are at greater than an extremely tiny risk. The risk for less than significant health problems is the media overhyping covid, and an excellent example of statistics abuse. It is particularly shameful how the media has behaved in this regard.


Quote:
Originally Posted by highlanderfil View Post
From the very beginning of the stimulus package discussions I've said that the pencil-shaped approach (where everyone below a certain income level got the same amount and then it started getting smaller towards the tip at higher income levels) was wrong. It should have been a triangle (where the base - the poorest - would get more) and it should have topped out at a much lower level. My wife and I didn't need the money, though we qualified for it; on the other hand, for someone making $20K/year from a waitressing job and losing even that income during the pandemic, $1,200 was not nearly enough.
OK, but that's political philosophy and unrelated to covid. The fact is covid is only a significant threat to people with significant health problems, and the response from most state government leaders has been completely out of proportion to the actual threat. This type of program, though people may want it, is unrelated to covid.

Last edited by jdhpa; 04-16-2021 at 09:51 AM..
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Old 04-16-2021, 09:55 AM
 
5,681 posts, read 5,079,203 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdhpa View Post
IYes, everyone will eventually get covid, just like they get the flu.
This is simply not true. It just isn't, no matter how many times you repeat it. I know it was a popular line with 45 and the hordes of people who think we should just go full Sweden and go about life as though nothing's happened, but Sweden itself has reversed course on restrictions because their model has failed. And Sweden is a lot more disciplined than we are as a nation - not to mention, much smaller.
Quote:
If you haven't gotten the flu you're a rare, lucky exception, be happy. Like walking through a mine field blind folded and not stepping on a mine. If enough people try it some will be lucky and get through, but I wouldn't count on that.
It has nothing to do with luck. It has to do with vaccination and general hygiene practices.
Quote:
I've had the covid vaccine already. If I live long enough (a normal life expectancy) I'll eventually get covid, and you will too. It's a virus, I don't do wishful thinking.
I don't do wishful thinking, either. My chances of getting Covid, having been vaccinated and intending to follow the recommended vaccination plan into the future (as well as continuing to take proper precautions), are quite low. Now, if people continue to refuse to vaccinate, giving rise to variants that elude the current vaccines and jump ahead of the booster shots before they're developed, my odds will start worsening.
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Then we're all in a lot of trouble. Prepare for a world where 95% of the population has severe chronic health problems from a young age.
Not sure where you're getting that number.
Quote:
Obesity, etc., is a lark. Yes it raises the likelihood of problems from covid vs an otherwise healthy, non-obese person. Something like 2x if I remember correctly. 2x (1 in a 1,000,000) is (1 in 500,000). 1% (1 in 100) of Americans will eventually die in a car accident. Yes, obesity, et. Al. increase the odds of covid complications, but the odds are still tiny for an otherwise healthy person, very small compared to other risks we all face. Only people with significant health problems are at greater than an extremely tiny risk. The risk for less than significant health problems is the media overhyping covid, and an excellent example of statistics abuse. It really is shameful how the media has behaved in this regard.
Which comorbidity do you consider significant?

Here's a pretty extensive study of comorbidity risks. If I read it correctly, the relative risk for age-related death is 1.73 for ages 60-69, 2.73 for ages 70-79 and 4.37 for ages 80+. Now let's look at some of the other factors in lower age groups:

Hypertension: 1.67 in group aged 20-39 (uncomplicated), 2.60 in the same age group (complicated)
Diabetes: 1.81 in the same age group
Obesity: 1.91

The entire age group, irrespective of comorbidities: 0.21

So, members of the youngest age group surveyed were at least as likely to die of Covid if they had hypertension, diabetes or were obese, as early seniors. I wouldn't call this insignificant risk. And these are exactly the people employed as waiters, baristas, etc.
Quote:
OK, but that's political philosophy and unrelated to covid. The fact is covid is only a significant threat to people with significant health problems, and the response from most state government leaders has been completely out of proportion to the actual threat.
It's related to Covid insofar as Covid being the catalyst for enacting these measures and speaks directly to DaniellaG's point about governments helping out, economic impacts, etc.

Last edited by highlanderfil; 04-16-2021 at 10:18 AM..
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Old 04-16-2021, 10:54 AM
 
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For the record (before I am accused of wanting to force everyone back indoors as certain C-D members who lead with emotion rather than reason are wont to do), I do not believe Michigan needs to go back to the same level of restrictions we had a year ago. But if the hospital system becomes overwhelmed and people continue to insist on being reckless, there might not be a choice in the matter.
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Old 04-16-2021, 11:23 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highlanderfil View Post
For the record (before I am accused of wanting to force everyone back indoors as certain C-D members who lead with emotion rather than reason are wont to do), I do not believe Michigan needs to go back to the same level of restrictions we had a year ago. But if the hospital system becomes overwhelmed and people continue to insist on being reckless, there might not be a choice in the matter.

I doubt she is going to restrict things if she hasn’t already. We have already seen higher numbers then before, cdc told her to close things along with MI hospitals which some are near capacity. She hasn’t and that’s why I’m saying this is about control on her part and politics. Prior those were reasons to keep things closed now they are not. Yes the vaccine is here but people haven’t gotten it yet.

Here is an article 32 percent of businesses had to close at least temp compared to the US average of 19 percent. Why did MI need to close so many more compared to other states?
https://www.thecentersquare.com/mich...bef1e.amp.html

I don’t have facts of MI vs FL economy. They opened basically in May so we’re talking 11 months of income. I don’t know how it would be possible for MI to do better or equal financially. The government only helped some not enough to keep many businesses open.

Question let’s say it’s July and the vaccine has been available for the population. Yet our numbers are still high cause many are not willing to get it should things still be restricted? Eventually and in my opinion by July like Whitmer stated for hopes of no restrictions if people don’t want the vaccine and get sick that is on them. Life should go back to normal.

It isn’t just the last 7 weeks from day 1 MI has done poorly. Only time we did good was when a lot of businesses were closed. If we stay in the house 24/7 our numbers could be very low but it’s not realistic. The way we’re headed we’re going to top all states at the end. When I say 31 states have lower deaths it takes into account population that is based on per capita. Unless I’m confused it’s 31 not 21. I will find a link and post it. I will also try to find a link about suicides being up

This is the Covid deaths per capita
https://www.beckershospitalreview.co...te-july-1.html

I apologize the suicides are not up but depression is up and 1 in 4 kids during the pandemic has had suicidal thoughts

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...rise-suicides/

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...finds-n1264079

Jdhpa I agree with what you are saying.
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Old 04-16-2021, 12:16 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaniellaG View Post
We have already seen higher numbers then before
We haven't. Cases topped out at 18K on November 27. April 5 was the highest point of this surge - 11K cases. Deaths were highest on January 2 (285). The highest point of the latest surge was yesterday, April 15, with 123. You continue to ignore and misstate facts.
Quote:
She hasn’t and that’s why I’m saying this is about control on her part and politics. Prior those were reasons to keep things closed now they are not. Yes the vaccine is here but people haven’t gotten it yet.
Perhaps. Perhaps it's also that restrictions are not easily enforced and are being largely ignored as people are getting more and more tired of them. It's human nature. It's normal. As I said, there is no winning situation in this for her.
Quote:
Here is an article 32 percent of businesses had to close at least temp compared to the US average of 19 percent. Why did MI need to close so many more compared to other states?
https://www.thecentersquare.com/mich...bef1e.amp.html
Thank you. This is meaningful, but to a point. A more meaningful statistic would be the number of people, not businesses, affected. You have no idea what financial state these businesses were in before Covid, either, or how many people were employed there.

Still, it's interesting that North Dakota and South Dakota have the fewest businesses closed, but some of the highest death and infection numbers.
Quote:
Question let’s say it’s July and the vaccine has been available for the population. Yet our numbers are still high cause many are not willing to get it should things still be restricted?
It's an interesting philosophical question. And I have to go with the same old "flattening the curve" argument. But now we have vaccines as part of it, whereas we didn't before. We will not be at herd immunity through recoveries and vaccinations for quite some time. The goal is not to crash the hospital system, which we are getting perilously close to.
Quote:
Eventually and in my opinion by July like Whitmer stated for hopes of no restrictions if people don’t want the vaccine and get sick that is on them. Life should go back to normal.
Life will never go back to "normal" (pre-Covid). During "normal", there was no disease which, by and large, still doesn't have a cure. But we will adapt and a "new normal" will be formed. What that will look like remains to be seen.
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The way we’re headed we’re going to top all states at the end.
Not even close.
Quote:
When I say 31 states have lower deaths it takes into account population that is based on per capita. Unless I’m confused it’s 31 not 21. I will find a link and post it. I will also try to find a link about suicides being up
Then we were talking about the same thing, but your use of the word "overall" made it confusing. We are ranked #21 (highest being worst) in per capita deaths. As I said, middle of the road.
Quote:
I apologize the suicides are not up but depression is up and 1 in 4 kids during the pandemic has had suicidal thoughts

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...rise-suicides/

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...finds-n1264079
The NBC news article is behind a paywall, but I get the gist of it. As for one in four kids having suicidal thoughts, does the article say anything about what the metric was like prior to the pandemic?

There's no doubt the pandemic made people more anxious and sadder. That's what global crises do, health-related or otherwise. It's impossible to know if it's just the shutdowns that cause mental issues or the simple fact that there's a deadly disease out there. Simply saying that people staying at home leads to more depression and suicide is way too simplistic.
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Old 04-16-2021, 12:29 PM
 
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The Governor no longer has the ability to issue emergency restrictions as she did last year.



https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-go...ergency-powers


Of course depression rates are up! But if we get vaccinated we aren't helpless regarding management of our well-being. Feeling helpless contributes to depression. We now have a very empowering ability that too many Michiganders are afraid to make use of, and it's almost tragic. This is very harmful to our children. But kids are very resilient, and if adults used common sense and behaved responsibly, we could help them, and they could get through this and get on with their lives.



It would take six weeks to take effect for any one individual, but we could all get vaccinated, kids could get back to school, and more opportunities for recreation will safely open again. But too many people are uncooperative. The reason that this isn't happening is that in the meantime, we would need to stay out of crowds, stay masked in public places, not eat indoors in restaurants. But unfortunately, not enough adults are willing to do this.



So in addition to faster spreading variants, we have an uncooperative segment of the population that is causing a third wave of infection here in Michigan. We will only take longer to recover as a result.
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Old 04-16-2021, 12:47 PM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
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It does not help that they suspended the J & J vaccine and that the news media are running reports about the vaccines not working. It is strange how the media seems to have completely flipped their bias overnight. Now they are suddenly exaggerating the impact of both the J & J blood clot issue and the vaccinated people dying from covid. Both are tiny numbers that were or should have been expected, but the media makes it seem huge.
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