Future of the Milwaukee Suburbs (appointed, real estate, condo)

[ALR4929]

Are you people urban planners or something? Just curious.... There seems to be a lot of threads about stuff like this

[43north87west]

Originally Posted by dabombnumba1

Will white flight dramatically increase (at a much quicker rate that has occurred the last 15 years) in the first-ring suburbs? (West Allis, Greenfield, Cudahy)

White flight can't increase. White population growth is the slowest of any group. Whites are being replaced in communities by attrition, not because they're "fleeing". They're dying. Their families aren't reproducing. Whites are going away, but it's not because they're moving to suburbs or exurbs. They are going away, period.

In the 2010 census, White households had the oldest residents, and the fewest residents per household. And guess which group has the next lowest number of household residents? Blacks. The Black population growth rate dropped almost 30% between the 2000 and 2010 census.

Here's another interesting figure. The Black population is smaller in number than the Hispanic population, but represents almost the same aggregated buying power.

Things are changing dramatically in this country. Those old notions may not be valid anymore.

[MKEastsider]

Originally Posted by dabombnumba1

Central Milwaukee is great for people who are young and without kids (me) but until the school situation in the city changes dramatically, families with money will largely choose to stay in the outer suburbs. Yes Empty nesters and yuppies are moving into town at gradual rate and it is having a profound effect on downtown and i love it, but they alone will not kill the suburbs.

Rufus King, Riverside, Reagan, High School of the Arts, and School of Languages are some of the best public schools in the entire state. And some publications rate Rufus King as THE best public school in Wisconsin.

Granted, you'd be accurate in saying that most MPS schools aren't that great; but if you're a parent who actually gives a damn and makes the effort to be involved in your kids education, you won't ever have to worry about sending them to a bad MPS school.

[dabombnumba1]

MKEastsider, look at Hamilton, which was not considered bad until 5-10 years ago. I was a freshman there in 2006 and there were two stabbings that happened in the building during the day, my parents moved me to Whitnall the next year. Hamilton is also still better than all of the schools besides the 4 you just named. There is a risk of things happening like this at any MPS school and that is what freaks people with kids out.

There are a decent amount of people who send their kids to the good specialty schools, but they are usually the type of person who didn't leave town anyways and urban schools don't scare them. God bless the people who stayed and still contribute to the city, but the mindset of suburban Milwaukee is largely the opposite of this, and these are the people who would have to move into the city to kill the suburbs. We are the ranked the most segregated area in the most diverse country for a reason, things didn't just happen to end up like this. Dark faces scare off most people from outside the city because of this outrageous segregation. I wouldn't hesitate to send my kid to a good city school, but I feel i have a good grip on how most of suburbia around here thinks and that is sadly the truth. And this is Milwaukee too, where social issues as these don't change as quickly from generation to generation as the rest of the country.

[dabombnumba1]

43North87West, those are interesting stats, and it will be very intriguing to see how Hispanic buying power changes in our country over the next half-century.

You are right that most of the people are dying, and not moving to the suburbs, but there is a decent amount that is moving there. The population growth of the outer suburbs show that. New houses in Muskego are marketed towards young couples from West Allis, Greenfield who want to get a nicer house mostly. West Allis has a lot of younger couples who moved there without intention of staying over 10 years but did to get their lives started with an affordable house. Generally in their mid 30's is when they buy their "American Dream" suburban house. These people arent fleeing for the same reasons, but they are still white people leaving to go farther out, so wouldn't the term still be "white flight"?

[Allan Trafton]

Originally Posted by 43north87west

White flight can't increase. White population growth is the slowest of any group. Whites are being replaced in communities by attrition, not because they're "fleeing". They're dying. Their families aren't reproducing. Whites are going away, but it's not because they're moving to suburbs or exurbs. They are going away, period.

In the 2010 census, White households had the oldest residents, and the fewest residents per household. And guess which group has the next lowest number of household residents? Blacks. The Black population growth rate dropped almost 30% between the 2000 and 2010 census.

Here's another interesting figure. The Black population is smaller in number than the Hispanic population, but represents almost the same aggregated buying power.

Things are changing dramatically in this country. Those old notions may not be valid anymore.

To expand on this. The Atlantic had a breakdown of percent of minority children born in large metro areas. In the Milwaukee area the figure is a stunning 65% of all births in Milwaukee, Waukesha, Washington, Ozaukee and Racine county.

The ring counties are in for a demographic shock in twenty years or so. There will not be enough white buyers to purchase the existing homes. They will change if they like it or not.

If white flight occurs again it wouldn't be in Milwaukee, but maybe West Allis or Waukesha to name a few.

[Allan Trafton]

Originally Posted by dabombnumba1

43North87West, those are interesting stats, and it will be very intriguing to see how Hispanic buying power changes in our country over the next half-century.

You are right that most of the people are dying, and not moving to the suburbs, but there is a decent amount that is moving there. The population growth of the outer suburbs show that. New houses in Muskego are marketed towards young couples from West Allis, Greenfield who want to get a nicer house mostly. West Allis has a lot of younger couples who moved there without intention of staying over 10 years but did to get their lives started with an affordable house. Generally in their mid 30's is when they buy their "American Dream" suburban house. These people arent fleeing for the same reasons, but they are still white people leaving to go farther out, so wouldn't the term still be "white flight"?

The growth in the outer suburbs is slowing down. The last census estimate (out last month) had Milwaukee County with a larger percentage growth than any of the surrounding counties. The growth of these counties has been slowing down every decade since the 70's and now it almost flat. Also, the school districts enrollments are flat and many being supported by open enrollment with kids from Milwaukee.

The upper middle class, which supports the type of housing in Waukesha, Washington Counties, etc is unstable and not reliable enough to buy in bulk 300 or 400k homes. The employment/job market has fundamentally changed and can barley support 30 year home loans for a half million.

Add to this the changing demographics. The bulk of middle class whites is shrinking. The glory days of the suburbs (WWII to 2008) is probably over. This is not to say that affluent suburbs will cease to exist. River Hills and Elm Grove are not going vanish.

[milt14]

Originally Posted by pete6032

I think it really depends on how much the cost of transportation increases.

yes and no.
over the last 8 years the price of gas has skyrocketed and obama and his administration have said they have no problem with $4/gal gas. so do many of the leftist eco groups and leftists in general.
what they are trying to do is first, control other people and secondly, make other people live like they do in europe, in highly dense cities.
so the price of fuel will stay very high as that's what they want.

the problem with this is that doesn't mean everyone will move to the downtown areas because the costs of living there are usually higher and you get less. plus, other than government jobs, most jobs aren't locating in cities because of the first sentence in this paragraph.

so by keeping the price of fuel high, it will not only make EVERYTHING a lot more expensive, but people living in other places less likely to go to the downtown and spend money there. or if they do it, they'll do it less.

remember the ammenities of downtown areas--service/restaurants/shows and 'culture'.
those are the first things people cut back on when money starts getting tight.

[milt14]

Originally Posted by ram2

I remember paying $1.40 for a gallon of gas in 1981. Adjusted for inflation, gas is not much more expensive now.

when president bush left office it was $1.87/gal.
they've been finnegeling the numbers (surprise) as to inflation. with the massive spending that has taken place inflation should be high but the fed's monetary policy is to keep it artificially low. with by far the largest purchasers of our debt (bonds) being ourselves (own govt), only tricks can keep inflation low.

but there's inflation and devaluation of the purchasing power of our currency, imo (to some it's the same). our dollars are buying less and less, but the inflation rate has been low single digits for a decade.
things cost more (gas example) or to keep the dollar expenditures the same, portions are reduced or items/components substituted.

also consider increasing demand will cause inflation (the price of something)....but due to the loss of purchasing power of our dollar, demand for a lot of things have been low, thus keeping that component of inflation low.

and speaking of money for us serfs.....remember our growing national debt. fewer and fewer people are paying taxes and more and more people are demanding money/programs from said govt.

there's a reason why we moved from a large urban area to a small town in north central wisconsin.....

[milt14]

Originally Posted by ALR4929

Are you people urban planners or something? Just curious.... There seems to be a lot of threads about stuff like this

people could say i am highly 'educated' in it.