When will housing prices go back up? (Minneapolis, Andover: credit, home)

[rcsteiner]

Originally Posted by Radical_Car

Well ya, but I meant if you're seriously in danger of being laid off, then buying isn't a good idea.

Yes, that's very true. I've been blindsided by a layoff before, though, and I know others who were explicitly told they were immune and then laid off a few weeks later, so you never really know...

[Radical_Car]

Originally Posted by rcsteiner

Yes, that's very true. I've been blindsided by a layoff before, though, and I know others who were explicitly told they were immune and then laid off a few weeks later, so you never really know...

Ya that does happen and its a shame

[nrogers1122]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

I don't know your neighborhood so I'll take your word for it.

We agree. I would not like to be in a development where you choose you shade of vinyl tan siding. At the same token, drive by Mound and you will see what I am talking about. I hate crap in peoples yard with a bunch of parked cars in the yard. One home is nicely maintained while the other one has siding missing. But like you say, to each their own.

I second this. Ideally we would like to find a place where people have pride of ownership, and maintain their lawns and exteriors.

There is a principal called "broken windows sociology". Basically you take a nice neighborhood, allow one property to dillapidate (perhaps a broken window, perhaps neglected lawncare, etc.). Pretty soon, properties nearby will start to dillapidate too. Its a sort of social-psychological condition that makes people stop caring when their neighbors let their properties go. The significance of this is that it drives property values down and low-income inhabitants arrive. Not that I think all low-income people are bad or criminally predisposed, but most low-income areas have increased criminal activity.

Besides, who wants to look at a junky yard with crappy looking houses everyday?

[nrogers1122]

We are heading up this weekend & staying into the week to look at several houses in Crystal, New Hope, Richfield, Shakopee, and Burnsville. Hopefully we will get an offer on a place next week and if it gets accepted, we can get in early enough for the wifey to start her new job in a few weeks.

I am pretty optomistic about getting into a house again. Although it will be smaller than our house in Waukee, we definatley need to get out of the renting shell we've been in for the past 17 months (We listed our house with the expectation of an 18 month turnaround and sold it in 3 months).

The way I see it, the people who bought in 2006-07 are hosed. Prices are as low as they are going to get for this go-around. This is evidenced by the uptick in home sales *even after the tax credit ended*. We plan to stay for at least 3 years, but we hope to stay in our house for the next 6-8 years. If (and thats a big, unlikely IF) I land a job in BIGLAW and pull down the coveted 120k salary after graduation, we will have a chance to enjoy low payments and rising equity for a few years. This will also allow me to double-whammy the student loan debt of 210k+ I'll be racking up. Additionally, I'll have a chance to do some home-improvement projects (yes, I'm an HGTV junkie) to increase the value of the home.

I can't wait to spend a few days up there this weekend. WE have about 30 houses picked out that we are going to scout, definately enough of a selection to make a choice. Hopefully, within the next 8 weeks we will be Minnesotans.

[mmhl]

Originally Posted by nrogers1122

Prices are as low as they are going to get for this go-around. This is evidenced by the uptick in home sales *even after the tax credit ended*.

This couldn't be more wrong, sorry. House sales and pending agreements have plummeted since the tax credit, and MN is leading the nation in the amount of homes that have done price cuts since the credit expired. Prices are going lower, which really sucks for those of us selling, but it's the truth.

That being said, welcome to MN and you should have plenty of housing to look at! Have you considered St. Louis Park or Golden Valley? They seem to have good resale.

[trackstar13]

MMHL is correct about the dip in home sales the past few months, but he/she left something out. The median homes sales price was up 5% from this time last year and the median home sales price in the Twin Cities last month was $182,000. This is important to note, because even though house sale numbers are down and have decreased significantly since the tax credit, many sellers are getting fed up with the reductions, and may soon decide to stay in their house if possible or leave and rent their house. In other words, many areas are starting to see an unprecedented number of sellers simply entrench themselves in their houses.

I was talking to my dad about this earlier tonight (he is a real estate agent working into his golden years). One of his listings received an offer earlier this week and the seller took a very unique stance. The house was listed for almost a year without an offer and finally this week they received an offer. Well the house was listed for $210,000 and the offer was for $150,000 with seller assisted closing costs and the potential buyer also wanted several allowances for new hardwood floors, appliances, and driveway repairs. Well the counter offer from the seller was interesting to me, they decided to ignore the offer on the house after several reductions and they offered the potential buyer an opportunity to rent for $1500 a month. Needless to say, the buyers walked and the homeowner cancelled the listing and the house is now for rent. This was surprising to me, because I have never heard of rent as a counter offer.

One other thing to note about the Twin Cities market is that new contrsuction housing starts have decreased by almost 20% in the past two months combined. While I don't envy those in the position of selling a house right now, I wouldn't say it is time to press the panic button yet. On a final note, please take all my advice for with a grain of salt and realize that I am not in the selling or buying (well I may be if prices do drop more) mode, but I am interested in helping people out with a little of housing advice.

[golfgal]

I think that the biggest issue you are going to face looking at the areas you are scouting out is that they are not the better school districts in the area and they all have a top district right next door. If you are looking for long term turn around, you aren't going to see it because of the schools. All of those districts fall on the very short list of districts to avoid in the metro area, thus the reason for the lower house prices. If you do buy in one of those areas, make sure you don't over improve your home out of the first time home buyer range or you will most likely be sitting on that home for a long time.

[Kebinminn]

Originally Posted by golfgal

I think that the biggest issue you are going to face looking at the areas you are scouting out is that they are not the better school districts in the area and they all have a top district right next door. If you are looking for long term turn around, you aren't going to see it because of the schools. All of those districts fall on the very short list of districts to avoid in the metro area, thus the reason for the lower house prices. If you do buy in one of those areas, make sure you don't over improve your home out of the first time home buyer range or you will most likely be sitting on that home for a long time.

The school district isn't one of the top but it also isn't the bottom. Robbinsdale schools brings in about the same amount of kids as it loses. Plus with other districts close you can likely open enroll into those higher rated districts if you wish, we have.

[golfgal]

Originally Posted by Kebinminn

The school district isn't one of the top but it also isn't the bottom. Robbinsdale schools brings in about the same amount of kids as it loses. Plus with other districts close you can likely open enroll into those higher rated districts if you wish, we have.

That is true, but not always. If there are openings you can open enroll, however, there is also the good chance that your kids get all the way through say, 10th grade and there is no more room and you have to put your kids back in their home district. This is going to be especially more common as the state keeps cutting funding to schools. Even with open enrollment your home values will suffer if you aren't in a good school district.

[mmhl]

Originally Posted by track2514

MMHL is correct about the dip in home sales the past few months, but he/she left something out. The median homes sales price was up 5% from this time last year and the median home sales price in the Twin Cities last month was $182,000. This is important to note, because even though house sale numbers are down and have decreased significantly since the tax credit, many sellers are getting fed up with the reductions, and may soon decide to stay in their house if possible or leave and rent their house. In other words, many areas are starting to see an unprecedented number of sellers simply entrench themselves in their houses.

The median sales price going up is still being reflected by the tax credits. We don't have the data yet on house closings that occurred after the tax credit deadline. The deadline for closings has now been extended too, for people that were under contract by April 31, so we will see skewed sales prices closing for a few more months.

I will admit, as a current seller, I am jaded, but it is not pretty out there. I don't see housing prices increasing for several years. We've learned a lot about real estate and will never again assume we will make money when selling a house. Until unemployment goes down, I think housing prices will stay low.

I also have to agree with golfgal about buying in a more solid school district to try to maintain some of the value of your home.