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Old 01-17-2014, 10:19 AM
 
Location: Minneapolis
2,330 posts, read 3,798,579 times
Reputation: 4029

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Most the line cooks in my kitchen are in their early to mid 20s and live in suburbs like Anoka, Coon Rapids, and Little Canada. They would rather live in the city but they live in those places because that is where their parents houses are. The combination of large student loans and lingering low wages from the recession is preventing them from leaving home. Obviously that is just an anecdote, but I wonder how much of the growth in young population in the suburbs is coming from people living with their parents longer?

 
Old 01-17-2014, 12:10 PM
 
413 posts, read 761,085 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by QuietBlue View Post
I agree that they'll be fine in the short term; I was wondering about the long term. Best Buy was fine ten years ago too -- I was contracting there at the time and the future of the company seemed quite bright. But now, things are a lot different, and there are plenty of other companies that have found themselves in similar situations. Look at BlackBerry for an even more dramatic example. I think Target will be around in a decade, but they may not be as big as they are now, and/or they may not be considered as prestigious a company at which to work. Or maybe the opposite will be true; it's hard to say.

Best Buy and Target are completely different though. The former is a specialty retailer. In other words, if you go to Best Buy, you are likely looking for some type of specialty electronic item - a want, rather than a need in many cases.

Target is a general merchandise retailer. You go there to purchase everyday needs. The items that Target sells are things that won't change much and won't go away - people will always need them, and are less likely affected by e-commerce (I would not order toilet paper or root beer online). We probably go to Target three times a week, literally. I don't see Target or Walmart going away. Sure, K-mart has basically collapsed, but I think a lot of that had to do with not having a niche compared to Target and Walmart, and overall disrepair of many of their properties.
 
Old 01-17-2014, 01:13 PM
 
464 posts, read 800,809 times
Reputation: 340
Quote:
Originally Posted by ocsid View Post
Target is a general merchandise retailer. You go there to purchase everyday needs. The items that Target sells are things that won't change much and won't go away - people will always need them, and are less likely affected by e-commerce (I would not order toilet paper or root beer online). We probably go to Target three times a week, literally. I don't see Target or Walmart going away. Sure, K-mart has basically collapsed, but I think a lot of that had to do with not having a niche compared to Target and Walmart, and overall disrepair of many of their properties.
Toilet paper and root beer don't have very good margins, though, and it doesn't do much good if their customers aren't buying housewares, clothing, electronics, or other higher-margin items from them. And as a general merchandise retailer, they face a ton of competition -- Walmart and Amazon, of course, but also less direct ones such as Costco, Aldi, dollar stores, etc. Nor does it help that the middle ground of retail is hollowing out and consumers are either going lower or higher.

Once again, I don't think Target is going to disappear, I just don't think it's a given that they will always have the position in the marketplace that they do now.
 
Old 01-17-2014, 04:56 PM
 
687 posts, read 1,252,432 times
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Is the perception that Target is really going to keep most corporate employees in downtown Minneapolis? I always got the impression that Target said they were staying in downtown Minneapolis for political reasons. I don't see why building as much as they are in Brooklyn Park makes sense unless they planned to move a bunch of employees there. From what I gather, there are something like 10,000 employees downtown and 1,300 in Brooklyn Park. The plan is to build to increase capacity in Brooklyn Park to 5,500 workers. Is Target really going to add 4,000 corporate workers? If not, don't those workers have to come from downtown Minneapolis? Or is Target getting into the suburban office leasing business? Am I missing something here? Are my numbers grossly wrong? Is the Brooklyn Park expansion planned as empty space to use as leverage for lower rents in downtown Minneapolis?
 
Old 01-17-2014, 05:08 PM
 
687 posts, read 1,252,432 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Min-Chi-Cbus View Post
Everything I've seen has shown that the core cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul are leading the metro by a LONG shot in terms of new permits issued, and account for well over 50% of all new housing for the entire metro.

Also, you don't have to necessarily build housing to support higher population growth, especially if there is an existing supply of vacant housing (which there is, especially in the suburbs where there was overbuilding and lots of foreclosures).
Minneapolis, yes. St. Paul? In 2013, they aren't even in the top 5:
http://newsroom.batconline.org/sites...chart_only.pdf

Same for 2012:
http://newsroom.batconline.org/sites...mits_chart.pdf

But, I'm wondering how much this matters. There's a big difference between saying "a lot of people moved to Minneapolis" and "there are plans to build a lot of things in Minneapolis". For those plans to turn into people moving there the buildings need to actually get built and then people have to decide to move into them. Maybe that will happen, but maybe it won't. And you need the new people to not be people moving from one part of Minneapolis to another.
 
Old 01-17-2014, 05:39 PM
 
Location: Limbo
6,513 posts, read 7,529,551 times
Reputation: 6319
Quote:
Originally Posted by Min-Chi-Cbus View Post
A population density of 9,500 ppsm isn't that unfathomable at all though. In the 1950's there was LESS infrastructure to support those people -- larger families of 5 or more lived in the same homes that 2-3 people reside in today. And once again, we're seeing the average home size in this country begin to drop from historic highs (somewhere at or above 2,500 SF). If, according to some projections, downtown could support 50K of the 100K or so needed to reach 500K+ (in 2-3 square miles, no less), I can see the rest of the city (50 or so square miles) -- especially along major transit corridors -- pick up the rest of the population, especially in places like Uptown and Northeast.

Add the ability to have "Granny Flats" widespread in the city and not that much has to change to hold 500K or more residents.
I think it is definitely possible to get back to that number. While there was less infrastructure at that point to support the people, our current infrastructure does take up more real estate, leaving less space for residential development. I'd be curious to see what percentage of of the city's land is devoted to residential now, compared to 60 years ago.
 
Old 01-17-2014, 09:11 PM
 
Location: Carver County, MN
1,395 posts, read 2,651,491 times
Reputation: 1265
Quote:
Originally Posted by northsub View Post
Minneapolis, yes. St. Paul? In 2013, they aren't even in the top 5:
http://newsroom.batconline.org/sites...chart_only.pdf

Same for 2012:
http://newsroom.batconline.org/sites...mits_chart.pdf

But, I'm wondering how much this matters. There's a big difference between saying "a lot of people moved to Minneapolis" and "there are plans to build a lot of things in Minneapolis". For those plans to turn into people moving there the buildings need to actually get built and then people have to decide to move into them. Maybe that will happen, but maybe it won't. And you need the new people to not be people moving from one part of Minneapolis to another.
They aren't building a lot of stuff in Minneapolis now? It seems like every time I go to one neighborhood or another there is a new project going up somewhere.
 
Old 01-17-2014, 09:45 PM
 
Location: Downtown St. Paul
152 posts, read 289,939 times
Reputation: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by northsub View Post
Minneapolis, yes. St. Paul? In 2013, they aren't even in the top 5:
http://newsroom.batconline.org/sites...chart_only.pdf

Same for 2012:
http://newsroom.batconline.org/sites...mits_chart.pdf
I don't think they've counted St. Paul. It says the fifth most units Permitted by City was Lakeville with 366 in 2012. In 2012, apartment projects such as the Penfield (254 units), Pioneer Endicott (234), West Side Flats (178), and Schmidt Brewery (261) all started construction. That's 927 units right there. And that's not counting a couple other small apartments as well. Nor the occasional SFH built too.

That still pales in comparison to Minneapolis of course. But there's much more being built in St. Paul than that report suggests. A lot more.

edit, at the bottom it notes it only counts about 70% of the metro area. Not sure why they would leave off St. Paul. But whatever.
 
Old 01-17-2014, 10:19 PM
 
127 posts, read 213,080 times
Reputation: 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by northsub View Post
Is the perception that Target is really going to keep most corporate employees in downtown Minneapolis? I always got the impression that Target said they were staying in downtown Minneapolis for political reasons. I don't see why building as much as they are in Brooklyn Park makes sense unless they planned to move a bunch of employees there. From what I gather, there are something like 10,000 employees downtown and 1,300 in Brooklyn Park. The plan is to build to increase capacity in Brooklyn Park to 5,500 workers. Is Target really going to add 4,000 corporate workers? If not, don't those workers have to come from downtown Minneapolis? Or is Target getting into the suburban office leasing business? Am I missing something here? Are my numbers grossly wrong? Is the Brooklyn Park expansion planned as empty space to use as leverage for lower rents in downtown Minneapolis?
Actually, target expanded their footprint in downtown Minneapolis in 2012 and their lease runs through 2030.......so yes, there will be a very large target presence in downtown minneapolis for a few years.

I am involved in the Brooklyn park project and yes, this is a large project, but is mainly tech based (this is where their data centers are, for example).
 
Old 01-17-2014, 10:25 PM
 
127 posts, read 213,080 times
Reputation: 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by northsub View Post
Minneapolis, yes. St. Paul? In 2013, they aren't even in the top 5:
http://newsroom.batconline.org/sites...chart_only.pdf

Same for 2012:
http://newsroom.batconline.org/sites...mits_chart.pdf

But, I'm wondering how much this matters. There's a big difference between saying "a lot of people moved to Minneapolis" and "there are plans to build a lot of things in Minneapolis". For those plans to turn into people moving there the buildings need to actually get built and then people have to decide to move into them. Maybe that will happen, but maybe it won't. And you need the new people to not be people moving from one part of Minneapolis to another.
I don't think you understand. Their have been thousands of units built in the last two years with more under construction right now. These are not plans, but buildings that have been built and are being built. Over $1 billion the last two years.

Drive over to the greenway in Minneapolis or north loop, then come back and tell us about how these physical structures are "plans". My company has been involved with several of these apartment buildings, and I've visited the sites........pretty sure they weren't mirages.

Most are full before they are completed
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