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Old 04-17-2009, 09:45 AM
 
Location: Mahtomedi, MN
989 posts, read 2,760,751 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert P Stewart View Post
MY opinion - LOL.

Rating livability (thanks, BTW) is like rating art. Good luck.
It is indeed subjective. The art world seems to resist the urger to rank, sort, and quantify. Kudos to that.
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Old 04-18-2009, 03:49 PM
 
43 posts, read 193,930 times
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Well I know that my wife and I are still waiting to buy if we do in fact buy in Minnesota. I actually think Obama is going to extend the housing credit to next year so I don't think it will be any big hurry. And I definitely don't see any big swing in prices coming. People aren't as anxious to drop $2,000 for a home payment when it is just for a home and not a money making machine.
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Old 04-18-2009, 08:00 PM
 
Location: Lakeville, MN - 4th nicest place in the nation to raise a family
285 posts, read 1,109,167 times
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Don't ever count on the perpetuity of a tax credit. Programs may get better - they may get worse, but they rarely stay the same.

One of the most common questions I'm asked is "How's the market?". My answer is usually "Which one?".

At the bottom (i.e. properties $175K or less) we're seeing a stabilization based on basic economics - today it costs less to own than rent. And the rents these properties produce support the price. Just 2 days ago I had an appraiser ask me how I justified the purchase price of a duplex in Corcoran neighborhood, Minneapolis. I explained the rents for both sides and the formula I use to determine value - she thanked me and we didn't have an issue.

This is not the case with properties over $300K (my opinion, remember). With these properties, value is not established by the income potential, rather, by amenity. Simply put, home buyers in this price range are buying location and lifestyle. What's the difference between a $750,000 house and a $800,000 house? The spread is large, but ultimate question is "what is the lifestyle worth"?

In summation, properties over the economic threshhold ($300K) will continue to slide and homes under $300K are beginning to stabilize. Again, my opinion.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Minneapolis Guy View Post
Well I know that my wife and I are still waiting to buy if we do in fact buy in Minnesota. I actually think Obama is going to extend the housing credit to next year so I don't think it will be any big hurry. And I definitely don't see any big swing in prices coming. People aren't as anxious to drop $2,000 for a home payment when it is just for a home and not a money making machine.
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Old 04-18-2009, 11:45 PM
 
Location: Mpls - south for the winter
140 posts, read 510,674 times
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Robert - I'm an investor and buying as many REO's as I can - then fixing and reselling them as fast as they are finished!

Most REO's have multiple offers and even some fixed up properties are getting multiple offers. There is a 2 year built up demand for houses and many buyers are starting to feel more confident the economy is bottoming along with house prices.

New foreclosures coming on the market are gobbled up very quickly - renovated and either rented or resold. The prognosticators of dome and gloom will be sadly disappointed when they miss this golden opportunity to buy at current low prices and low interest rates. Those willing to jump in now will be rewarded for their foresight!
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Old 04-19-2009, 06:32 AM
 
7,304 posts, read 8,731,334 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boomerbiker View Post
Robert - I'm an investor and buying as many REO's as I can - then fixing and reselling them as fast as they are finished!

Most REO's have multiple offers and even some fixed up properties are getting multiple offers. There is a 2 year built up demand for houses and many buyers are starting to feel more confident the economy is bottoming along with house prices.

New foreclosures coming on the market are gobbled up very quickly - renovated and either rented or resold. The prognosticators of dome and gloom will be sadly disappointed when they miss this golden opportunity to buy at current low prices and low interest rates. Those willing to jump in now will be rewarded for their foresight!
I could convince myself that a certain market segment has bottomed out or I could look at things in a different manner and be sure this is a short term rally.

It's volatile and a lot of it is based off of emotion. Just take one little data point like the stock market. If a bad piece of news comes out and the market goes under $7K again, your theory will be instantly flushed and the wallets will once again be closed.

My impression of what the housing market is doing change doing every few weeks. The good news is the (needed) price correction has devalued enough. About now it is more psychological than anything else. And thankfully our President is finally talking positive and we are starting to believe it (versus scaring the crap out of us as to why we need to spend trillions on credit or the wolrd will stop spinning). Hence, perception might just become reality. We all want to see the light at the end of the tunnel. To me, it's obvious that no one has a real handle on all of this in spring of 2009. But, i hope you are right!
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Old 04-19-2009, 09:57 AM
 
43 posts, read 193,930 times
Reputation: 28
[quote=Boomerbiker;8410718]Robert - I'm an investor and buying as many REO's as I can - then fixing and reselling them as fast as they are finished!

Most REO's have multiple offers and even some fixed up properties are getting multiple offers. There is a 2 year built up demand for houses and many buyers are starting to feel more confident the economy is bottoming along with house prices.

New foreclosures coming on the market are gobbled up very quickly - renovated and either rented or resold. The prognosticators of dome and gloom will be sadly disappointed when they miss this golden opportunity to buy at current low prices and low interest rates. Those willing to jump in now will be rewarded for their foresight![/quote]

People were telling me the same thing last year and prices have only gone down since then. I actually still think the Minneapolis area is over priced when you came compare the home prices and wages to other areas of the country. Also, even at todays prices, we are still spending a way bigger portion of our income on homes then you had to in the past.

But it really doesn't matter what I think, what matters is what the collective group of buyers are doing. You are no longer buying an asset that is going to sky rocket in value, you are now buying a home. Not nearly as many people are going to be willing to fork over $1,500 a month for a house when their 401K's have dropped 50% and when you are no longer likely to work at the same job for 20 years. It was easy to move with a job change when home prices were going up 10% a year and would cover any selling fees. Its not going to be so easy anymore.

Its not like you have to worry about missing out on the bottom, home prices aren't going to start going up 10% a year again. And if they do, well I continue to stay out of the market and wait for the next meltdown that would be even bigger.

Last edited by Minneapolis Guy; 04-19-2009 at 10:16 AM..
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Old 04-24-2009, 10:32 PM
 
Location: Mpls - south for the winter
140 posts, read 510,674 times
Reputation: 106
The Twin Cities real estate market is definitely heating up. Just closed on another REO today - after competing with 9 other offers. Immediately resold the house to another investor for $10k more.

You can sit on the side lines and watch while others with more confidence jump in and buy at prices 25% below 3 years ago - at the lowest interest rates in decades.

Those waiting for the real estate market to bottom are probably the same investors who missed the bottom in the equities markets! Following the crowd and waiting for unequivical confirmation of a bottom almost assures missing real opportunities.
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Old 04-25-2009, 09:01 PM
 
Location: Lakeville, MN - 4th nicest place in the nation to raise a family
285 posts, read 1,109,167 times
Reputation: 104
My theory ties the price of housing to an economic reality - rent. There's not much emotion or speculation in that. As I said, that doesn't work for properties over a certain price point.

Boomerbiker has experienced firsthand exactly what is going on out there, but in a very narrow way. Boomerbiker sounds like an experienced investor who knows how to spot good buys. Boomer, you WILL be competitive with others because you are focusing on the 5% of the market that priced well. For every listing getting multiple offers, there are 20 just sitting there with no activity. The market is still pretty cold as a whole - the part of the market that is priced well is hot - and that hasn't changed in the last 200 years.

Robert
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Old 04-27-2009, 01:27 AM
 
Location: St. Paul's East Side
550 posts, read 1,506,848 times
Reputation: 280
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minneapolis Guy View Post
And I definitely don't see any big swing in prices coming.
I don't anticipate another housing bubble of this magnitude happening again anytime soon, the memory of this bust is going to remain fresh in everyone's memories for at least 10-15 years, if not longer.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Minneapolis Guy View Post
.... I actually think Obama is going to extend the housing credit to next year so I don't think it will be any big hurry.
But my main reason for posting here, now, is to ask: Is it your opinion alone that Obama is going to extend the housing credit to 2010, or is this something you've read or heard somewhere? [Not to say you are wrong in your opinion, I tend to think you may be right, but I'd love to see collaboration.]

I did try to google this, and found the energy improvements tax rebate program has been extended to 2010, so that's a good sign the housing credit program will also be extended.

I certainly hope so, our family is planning to move to another city, but we are waiting until June of 2010 to avoid yanking our oldest out of school just as she is to embark on her senior year of high school.

We've thought about splitting the family up, with one parent staying here with the children to finish out the school year, while the other parents moves to Atlanta and buys our first home nor later than December, utilizing the FHA tax incentive program - but then we realized any gains made through the tax incentive would be wiped out by the fact we'd be paying a mortgage and rent for six months, not to mention the back and forth travel costs...

So we are REALLY, REALLY hoping the tax incentive stay in play through 2010!!

NOTE: I am looking at the Atlanta market, at home priced under 100k, we plan to utilize the FHA 203k program. I actually found a Realtor/rehabber in ATL willing to work with me within these parameters - and he has experience working with 203k mortgages - woo hoo! Seriously, trying to find a Realtor willing to help low to moderate income buyers get into some of these REO homes in need of Rehab is NOT easy. I have yet to find such a Realtor here in the Twin Cities, and I have a friend I'd like to help get into a home of her own before we leave Minnesota. Anyone with agent referrals - PM me!

Last edited by StPaulEastSider; 04-27-2009 at 01:44 AM..
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Old 04-27-2009, 04:35 PM
 
43 posts, read 193,930 times
Reputation: 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by StPaulEastSider View Post
I don't anticipate another housing bubble of this magnitude happening again anytime soon, the memory of this bust is going to remain fresh in everyone's memories for at least 10-15 years, if not longer.



But my main reason for posting here, now, is to ask: Is it your opinion alone that Obama is going to extend the housing credit to 2010, or is this something you've read or heard somewhere? [Not to say you are wrong in your opinion, I tend to think you may be right, but I'd love to see collaboration.]

I did try to google this, and found the energy improvements tax rebate program has been extended to 2010, so that's a good sign the housing credit program will also be extended.

I certainly hope so, our family is planning to move to another city, but we are waiting until June of 2010 to avoid yanking our oldest out of school just as she is to embark on her senior year of high school.

We've thought about splitting the family up, with one parent staying here with the children to finish out the school year, while the other parents moves to Atlanta and buys our first home nor later than December, utilizing the FHA tax incentive program - but then we realized any gains made through the tax incentive would be wiped out by the fact we'd be paying a mortgage and rent for six months, not to mention the back and forth travel costs...

So we are REALLY, REALLY hoping the tax incentive stay in play through 2010!!

NOTE: I am looking at the Atlanta market, at home priced under 100k, we plan to utilize the FHA 203k program. I actually found a Realtor/rehabber in ATL willing to work with me within these parameters - and he has experience working with 203k mortgages - woo hoo! Seriously, trying to find a Realtor willing to help low to moderate income buyers get into some of these REO homes in need of Rehab is NOT easy. I have yet to find such a Realtor here in the Twin Cities, and I have a friend I'd like to help get into a home of her own before we leave Minnesota. Anyone with agent referrals - PM me!
Sorry, I dont have any facts to back that up, its just my opinion. I have a gut feeling that it will continue into next year. BUT, I believe if the housing market for some reason does start to really turn around, then I dont beleive it will be continued. I think it all depends on the housing market and how many people are utilizing the program. Who knows the incentive could remain, but maybe at a reduced amount or it could go up but I HIGHLY doubt that.
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