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Old 02-22-2011, 06:39 AM
 
Location: Washington, DC area
11,108 posts, read 23,888,805 times
Reputation: 6438

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It looks like a lot of the estimates are way off so far, especially for larger urban cities.

Any guess on what the official population of specific MO cities will be?

KCMO's estimated population seems to vary between 460,000 and 507,000 (quite a spread).

St Louis City is estimated at around 360,000 it looks like.

My guess is:

KCMO 472,000
St Louis 368,000
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Old 02-22-2011, 07:49 AM
 
Location: Tower Grove East, St. Louis, MO
12,063 posts, read 31,623,677 times
Reputation: 3799
Chicago apparently lost 200,000 people and Dallas gained fewer than 10,000. To me, it's clear there's been some undercounting despite attempts to count everybody.

I'm hesitant to make any predictions given how far below a lot of major cities have already come in, but I'll be hoping for positive (and sustainable) growth in both our main cities!
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Old 02-22-2011, 07:56 AM
 
Location: CasaMo
15,971 posts, read 9,385,776 times
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Its probably has a lot to do with Chicago being more affected by the recession than Dallas.

As far as undercounts, I know I never even recieved a form or had a census worker come by.

I'll put my guess at KCMO at 480K.
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Old 02-22-2011, 08:08 AM
 
Location: The City of Shoes and Booze
136 posts, read 265,152 times
Reputation: 89
I'll agree with you on KC's population is around 472K, but I think you were being generous with St. Louis at 368K. I think that St. Louis would be more around 358-359K range, and if it wasn't for the recession I think St. Louis would be at 368K.
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Old 02-22-2011, 08:18 AM
 
Location: Washington, DC area
11,108 posts, read 23,888,805 times
Reputation: 6438
And to document the estimates of the MSAs and compare those to official 2010 numbers.


2009 MSA estimates:
St Louis: 2,795,754
Kansas City: 2,067,585


2009 CMSA estimates:
St Louis: 2,859,638
Kansas City: 2,120,242

any chance of StL passing the 3 million mark?

Last edited by kcmo; 02-22-2011 at 09:20 AM..
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Old 02-22-2011, 08:23 AM
 
Location: Marquette, MI
351 posts, read 797,265 times
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is there a website that says when other states are being released? The U.S. gov 2010 site is useless.
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Old 02-22-2011, 08:26 AM
 
Location: Washington, DC area
11,108 posts, read 23,888,805 times
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BTW, the MSAs of both KC and StL have way too many counties.

This is what the KC MSA is:
.Jackson County
.Cass County
.Clay County
.Platte County
.Bates County
.Caldwell County
.Clinton County
.Lafayette County
.Ray County
.Johnson County
.Leavenworth County
.Wyandotte County
.Linn County
.Franklin County
.Miami County
2,067,585

This is what the KC MSA should be in my opinion:
.Jackson County
.Cass County
.Clay County
.Platte County
.Johnson County
.Leavenworth County
.Wyandotte County
.Douglas County
2,014,370
(Take out all the far flung rural counties and add Douglas (Lawrence) which is closer than most of those others and more tied to KC's economy.)
It's about the same population in half the square miles..)



The KC CMSA should be:
.Jackson County
.Cass County
.Clay County
.Platte County
.Bates County
.Caldwell County
.Clinton County
.Lafayette County
.Ray County
.Johnson County
.Buchanan County
.Johnson County
.Leavenworth County
.Wyandotte County
.Linn County
.Franklin County
.Miami County
.Atchison County
.Douglas County
2,342,892

The St Louis MSA is better than KC's I think, but could still drop a couple of counties in the MSA and add them to the CMSA.

Last edited by kcmo; 02-22-2011 at 08:36 AM..
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Old 02-22-2011, 08:30 AM
 
Location: Washington, DC area
11,108 posts, read 23,888,805 times
Reputation: 6438
Quote:
Originally Posted by joemits View Post
is there a website that says when other states are being released? The U.S. gov 2010 site is useless.
2010 Census Data - 2010 Census

http://2010.census.gov/2010census/pdf/us_st_release_c2k10_2-16.pdf\ (broken link)
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Old 02-22-2011, 09:17 AM
 
Location: Tower Grove East, St. Louis, MO
12,063 posts, read 31,623,677 times
Reputation: 3799
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoNative34 View Post
Its probably has a lot to do with Chicago being more affected by the recession than Dallas.

As far as undercounts, I know I never even recieved a form or had a census worker come by.

I'll put my guess at KCMO at 480K.
I think it's an undercount for both -- I find it nearly as impossible to imagine Dallas has only gained 9,000 new residents in the last decade as it is that Chicago has somehow shrunk by 200,000. If the 2009 census estimates -- which are done by the census bureau as well -- in any way indicated we might see this kind of drop it might make more sense to me, but they too were wildly off.

Generally I think there are four things at work here:

1. Realistically there has probably been some decline. The recession's consequences to expensive cities can't be understated.

2. Gentrification such as the kind Chicago has seen in the last few decades actually lowers population. Homes that might have once been broken into two or three units with a family living in each are now single family homes once again.

3. Illegal immigration. I don't care how many times you told me that you just want to count me, you don't care my immigration status and there will be no ill effects, if I were in this country illegally I sure as heck would be worried about someone coming into my home and asking me questions.

4. It's simply harder to count people in large apartment buildings than it is in single family homes more prevalent in lower density parts of the metro, especially if there's a doorman or any kind of limited access to the building.
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Old 02-22-2011, 05:20 PM
 
5 posts, read 10,881 times
Reputation: 10
i think hispanics and asian population will be higher
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